Nassim Nicholas Taleb – författare

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the impossible. For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan.

A bold work from the author of The Black Swan that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility In his most provocative and practical book yet, one of the foremost thinkers of our time redefines what it means to understand the world, succeed in a profession, contribute to a fair and just society, detect nonsense, and influence others. Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi to Seneca, Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows how the willingness to accept one's own risks is an essential attribute of heroes, saints, and flourishing people in all walks of life. As always both accessible and iconoclastic, Taleb challenges long-held beliefs about the values of those who spearhead military interventions, make financial investments, and propagate religious faiths. Among his insights: - For social justice, focus on symmetry and risk sharing. You cannot make profits and transfer the risks to others, as bankers and large corporations do. You cannot get rich without owning your own risk and paying for your own losses. Forcing skin in the game corrects this asymmetry better than thousands of laws and regulations. - Ethical rules aren't universal. You're part of a group larger than you, but it's still smaller than humanity in general. - Minorities, not majorities, run the world. The world is not run by consensus but by stubborn minorities imposing their tastes and ethics on others. - You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot. Educated philistines have been wrong on everything from Stalinism to Iraq to low-carb diets. - Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find). A simple barbell can build muscle better than expensive new machines. - True religion is commitment, not just faith. How much you believe in something is manifested only by what you're willing to risk for it. The phrase skin in the game is one we have often heard but rarely stopped to truly dissect. It is the backbone of risk management, but it's also an astonishingly rich worldview that, as Taleb shows in this book, applies to all aspects of our lives. As Taleb says, The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that's necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster, and Never trust anyone who doesn't have skin in the game. Without it, fools and crooks will benefit, and their mistakes will never come back to haunt them.

Bästsäljande Skin in the game: vikten av delad risk handlar om att det aldrig går att lita på någon som inte gjort en egen insats, som inte tar någon egen risk eller som inte har skin in the game.

I korthet: Den som inte har något att förlora bör heller inte ha något att säga till om.

Boken är bitvis rosenrasande, bitvis självgod och alltid djupt kolerisk på Talebs patenterade sätt. Men tesen är väl underbyggd och han tar sig an allt från Trumps framgångar, börshajar som glatt spelar med spararnas pengar men inte med sina egna, krigshetsande hökar och förhatliga bokrecensenter till det fina med Hammurabis lagar.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb är kanske mest känd för Den svarta svanen som var en av 00-talets mest omtalade böcker och för att ha förutsett finanskrisen 2008. Hans verk är alltid briljanta och tankeväckande, men frågan är om han någonsin tidigare varit lika underhållande som nu, med ett resonemang som landar precis mitt i vår tid och som presenterar perspektiv på allt från politik till våra privatliv. Efter läsningen kommer du att vara betydligt mer försiktig innan du väljer pensionsfonder, tar emot råd eller ger dig in i ett samarbete.