O. Güvenen - Böcker

The book proposes an overview of the research conducted to date in the field of wine economics. All of these contributions have in common the use of econometric techniques and mathematical formalization to describe the new challenges of this economic sector.

The book proposes an overview of the research conducted to date in the field of wine economics. All of these contributions have in common the use of econometric techniques and mathematical formalization to describe the new challenges of this economic sector.

o. Guvenen, University of Paris IX-Dauphine The aim of this publication is to present recent developments in international com­ modity market model building and policy analysis. This book is based mainly on the research presented at the XlIth International Conference organised by the Applied Econometric Association (AEA) which was held at the University of Zaragoza in Spain. This conference would not have been possible with­ out the cooperation of the Department of Econometrics of the University of Zaragoza and its Chairman A.A. Grasa. I would like to express my thanks to all contributors. I am grateful to J.H.P. Paelinck, J.P. Ancot, A.J. Hughes Hallett and H. Serbat for their constructive contributions and comments concerning the structure of the book. vii INTRODUCTION o. Guvenen The challenge of increasing complexity and global interdependence at the world level necessitates new modelling approaches and policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, and for commodities. The evaluation of economic modelling.follows the evolution of international economic phenomena. In that interdependent context there is a growing need for forecasting and simulation tools in the analysis of international primary com­ modity markets.

RONALD C. DUNCAN During the 1980s, substantial advances were made in the global modelling of commodity markets in several areas, advances which were reflected in many of the papers delivered to the Applied Econometrics Association meeting held at the World Bank in Washington, DC, in October 1988. The several areas where I see advances being made, some of which the International Commodity Markets Division of the World Bank has taken part in, are the following: (a) in the theoretical specification of commodity price behaviour; (b) in the increased emphasis on modelling imperfect markets; (c) in the incorporation of the interrelationships between macro­ economic and commodity market variables; (d) in the specification of supply response, particularly in respect of perennial crops; and (e) in the realization of complementarity between time series analysis and economet­ rically estimated structural models. Improvements in the specification of the commodity price formation process have probably been the most important of the above advances. Until the early 1980s, prices were modelled as a simple linear function of stocks. Gilbert has played an important role in introducing the rational expecta­ tions hypothesis into the specification of commodity prices. Recent work by Gilbert, Trivedi, and Deaton and Laroque offers the possibility of non-linear specification of the relationship between prices and stocks within an expectational framework and of thereby capturing the phenomenon of sharp run-ups in commodity prices. Gilbert has also played an important role in clarifying the interrelation­ ships between macroeconomic variables and primary commodity prices.

o. Guvenen, University of Paris IX-Dauphine The aim of this publication is to present recent developments in international com­ modity market model building and policy analysis. This book is based mainly on the research presented at the XlIth International Conference organised by the Applied Econometric Association (AEA) which was held at the University of Zaragoza in Spain. This conference would not have been possible with­ out the cooperation of the Department of Econometrics of the University of Zaragoza and its Chairman A.A. Grasa. I would like to express my thanks to all contributors. I am grateful to J.H.P. Paelinck, J.P. Ancot, A.J. Hughes Hallett and H. Serbat for their constructive contributions and comments concerning the structure of the book. vii INTRODUCTION o. Guvenen The challenge of increasing complexity and global interdependence at the world level necessitates new modelling approaches and policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, and for commodities. The evaluation of economic modelling.follows the evolution of international economic phenomena. In that interdependent context there is a growing need for forecasting and simulation tools in the analysis of international primary com­ modity markets.