Patrick Minford – författare

European economic and monetary union is driven by politics, but the economic costs and benefits of Britain's membership can and should be assessed, argues Professor Patrick Minford in this careful and succinct analysis of the cases for and against Britain adopting the Euro. The core argument in favour is the reduction of exchange-rate risk, but because the Euro is a regional currency that has fluctuated considerably against the dollar, exchange-rate variability might not be less under the Euro and could even increase. In any case, financial markets can diversify away such risks. Minford sees substantial costs of membership: increased variability of UK output, employment and prices in response to shocks; damaging harmonisation of tax rates, social support and regulation; and the possibility that British taxpayers will have to meet some of the costs of big projected state pension deficits in Germany, France and Italy. He concludes that EMU, 'as it is constituted and planned would be strongly against British interests to join'.

Taxation, Regulation & Economic Growth

The authors of this book were asked to examine the issue of Britain leaving the EU and determine, from an economic or political economy point of view, what the appropriate role of international institutions should be in this debate. They were then asked to relate this to the reality that exists under the status quo or that might exist if Brexit occurred. In doing this, the volume can help achieve three objectives. First, it provides an analysis of the role that international institutions should play in the economic life of a free society. This is important, and rarely discussed in policy debates. In general, policy discussion tends to revolve around how to tweak the status quo - should we have more EU involvement in climate change policy or military intervention by the UN in this or that case, for example. Second, the authors implicitly lay out what a renegotiation agenda ought to look like if a country (whether Britain or not) wishes to reform the EU in a liberal direction, now or at some future time. At the time of writing this foreword, it is clear that David Cameron's agenda is not nearly radical enough, though it remains to be seen whether even that will be achieved.Indeed, it is not clear that the proposals of the UK government will even take the EU in the right direction. Any serious agenda to create a new settlement should start from first principles and take into consideration for what purposes the institution should exist. This would provide a benchmark against which success can be measured. Third, the authors provide a framework within which the practical options of remaining with a reformed EU and Brexit can be analysed. There are some authors who do not believe that international institutions are at all important in the area they discuss. Others believe that international cooperation can take place through bespoke, informal or ad hoc mechanisms, and that the EU itself need have no role. Presumably, in these cases, Brexit would be the logical way to get the best policy outcome. Another group of authors believes that a reformed or slimmed-down role for the EU would be satisfactory, or that the restraints that the EU currently puts on member states are really important in guaranteeing economic liberalism. As far as these areas are concerned, a renegotiated (or, in some cases, unreformed) EU would be the best option.One interesting issue is raised that perhaps transcends the discussions of particular policy areas. Rather than trying to renegotiate a better deal when it comes to labour market regulation or agriculture, it might be better to try to reshape the institutions of the EU. There might be wider support for that, and, in the long term, better institutions could lead to better policy. Overall, this is an important and unique contribution to the discussion about Britain's relationship with the EU. In the white noise of the referendum debate, serious long-term analysis of the precise role that international institutions should play in a free society, grounded in the context of the reality of the EU's current role, is refreshing. Its relevance will long outlive the referendum on Brexit that is likely to take place in the next 18 months.

Rational Expectations Macroeconomics is the second edition of Rational Expectations and the New Macroeconomics by Patrick Minford and David Peel. Under the sole authorship of Profesor Minford, this new dition represents a practical introduction to the principles and applications of rational expectations (RE) methods in macroeconomics for third year undergraduates and postgraduates.The author sets out to provide a basic working knowledge of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) by demonstrating in full various methods for solving RE models. The book then deals with policies and issues frequently encountered when applying these models including: stabilization policy, fiscal policy, the political economy of democracy and the Phillips curve. Finally, the author turns to methods of testing the REH. By the end of the book, students should be in a position to apply RE models to whatever economy they are concerned with. Professor Minford has updated the text extensively and included new chapters on representatitve agent models (increasingly used in a applied forecasting and policy analysis) and modelling the open economy. In the decade since the first edition of this classic text was written, the economics profession's respect for the REH has only increased. The author's introductory and concluding chapters place the REH research programme in its historical context, assess the current state of the debate and look ahead to future research in this important subject.

Placed in the context of the upcoming referendum, this second edition brings up to date a thorough review of all economic aspects of the UK's membership of the EU. It notes the intention of the EU to move to 'ever closer union' and the nature of the regulatory and general economic philosophy of its dominant members, whose position is enforced by qualified majority voting. The book highlights the UK s dilemma that, while extending free markets to its local region is attractive, this European philosophy and closer union are substantially at odds with the UK's traditions of free markets and freedom under the common law.This comprehensive examination of the economic costs and benefits of membership uses state-of-the-art modeling methods and includes estimates of its net costs as a percentage of GDP. The book explains how the decision to leave would follow from a judgement on the political economy of the EU as compared with that of the UK. It details the misconceptions involved in much of the debate about trade with the EU, and argues that the key issue is not access to markets but rather the prices at which trade takes place. Covered in careful detail is the economics of the UK's trade with the EU in the key sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, and services.

Placed in the context of the upcoming referendum, this second edition brings up to date a thorough review of all economic aspects of the UK's membership of the EU. It notes the intention of the EU to move to 'ever closer union' and the nature of the regulatory and general economic philosophy of its dominant members, whose position is enforced by qualified majority voting. The book highlights the UK s dilemma that, while extending free markets to its local region is attractive, this European philosophy and closer union are substantially at odds with the UK's traditions of free markets and freedom under the common law.This comprehensive examination of the economic costs and benefits of membership uses state-of-the-art modeling methods and includes estimates of its net costs as a percentage of GDP. The book explains how the decision to leave would follow from a judgement on the political economy of the EU as compared with that of the UK. It details the misconceptions involved in much of the debate about trade with the EU, and argues that the key issue is not access to markets but rather the prices at which trade takes place. Covered in careful detail is the economics of the UK's trade with the EU in the key sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, and services.

Since the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics, the subject has evolved in a major way, adopting the principles behind the revolution and building on them in spectacular fashion. In this thoroughly revised and updated second edition, the authors provide a complete and up-to-date textbook designed to guide students through the mathematical and conceptual maze of modern macroeconomics.The updated second edition includes:Explanation of the historical development of the subjectIntroduction to traditional macro-classical/adaptive expectationsDemonstration of how rational expectations are handled in macro models and in financeAn explanation of the importance of structural, micro-founded modelsKey examples of structural models examined in detail, and with extension to the open economyDiscussion of policy implications throughoutMethodology for testing models against macro data behaviour, complete with the latest evidence on these models' successCoverage of key topics, including the supply-side, unemployment, growth and the open economy.By explaining the basics of each topic, and providing the solid grounding for students to tackle more complex and detailed material, this textbook will be an invaluable resource for both postgraduate and upper level undergraduate students of macroeconomics alike.

Since the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics, the subject has evolved in a major way, adopting the principles behind the revolution and building on them in spectacular fashion. In this thoroughly revised and updated second edition, the authors provide a complete and up-to-date textbook designed to guide students through the mathematical and conceptual maze of modern macroeconomics.The updated second edition includes:Explanation of the historical development of the subjectIntroduction to traditional macro-classical/adaptive expectationsDemonstration of how rational expectations are handled in macro models and in financeAn explanation of the importance of structural, micro-founded modelsKey examples of structural models examined in detail, and with extension to the open economyDiscussion of policy implications throughoutMethodology for testing models against macro data behaviour, complete with the latest evidence on these models' successCoverage of key topics, including the supply-side, unemployment, growth and the open economy.By explaining the basics of each topic, and providing the solid grounding for students to tackle more complex and detailed material, this textbook will be an invaluable resource for both postgraduate and upper level undergraduate students of macroeconomics alike.

This timely book sets out a shrewd and comprehensive policy programme, for both 'microeconomic' supply-side settings of tax and regulatory systems, and 'macroeconomic' policies for fiscal and monetary policies to regulate demand and support the supply-side growth agenda. Explaining the numerous benefits of free trade after Britain's exit from the EU, and challenging the anti-Brexit argument, Patrick Minford builds on his extensive research into economic modelling to quantify the effects of Brexit and propose policies for the aftermath. Laying out an agenda for replacing social interventionist EU regulation with a robust free market framework, Minford proposes a radical tax reform programme to broaden the tax base and flatten marginal rates. This incisive book looks to the future of the UK beyond Brexit, addressing the effects of coronavirus and proposing an avenue of policies for recovery.Featuring key empirical analysis and insightful arguments, this book will be crucial reading for economists and policymakers investigating and overseeing the future of UK economic policy. It will also benefit scholars of economics and political economy, particularly those interested in tax reform programmes.

This timely book sets out a shrewd and comprehensive policy programme, for both 'microeconomic' supply-side settings of tax and regulatory systems, and 'macroeconomic' policies for fiscal and monetary policies to regulate demand and support the supply-side growth agenda. Explaining the numerous benefits of free trade after Britain's exit from the EU, and challenging the anti-Brexit argument, Patrick Minford builds on his extensive research into economic modelling to quantify the effects of Brexit and propose policies for the aftermath. Laying out an agenda for replacing social interventionist EU regulation with a robust free market framework, Minford proposes a radical tax reform programme to broaden the tax base and flatten marginal rates. This incisive book looks to the future of the UK beyond Brexit, addressing the effects of coronavirus and proposing an avenue of policies for recovery.Featuring key empirical analysis and insightful arguments, this book will be crucial reading for economists and policymakers investigating and overseeing the future of UK economic policy. It will also benefit scholars of economics and political economy, particularly those interested in tax reform programmes.

As a tribute to the exceptional contributions of Alan Walters to monetary theory and policy, this book draws together a distinguished cast of international contributors to write about money. In a series of essays they review controversies in monetary economics and debate current policy issues.Combining theoretical analysis with policy evaluation, this book touches on a whole spectrum of issues ranging from monetary union and exchange rate regimes, to credit rationing and policy games. The book focuses on the problems of modelling the effects of monetary and fiscal policy, and setting optimal policies for the future. It concludes with two stimulating panel discussions, one questioning whether the UK should join the Euro and the other discussing the appropriate targets of monetary policy.Bringing together for the first time papers celebrating Alan Walters' achievements in this field, this book will be warmly welcomed by those with special interest in monetary economics, particularly policymakers, students and academics.

Patrick Minford has been a close adviser to Mrs Thatcher during the last decade. He has made an important contribution to the ideas of Thatcherism and Britain's monetarist/supply side programme in the 1980s.This book brings together, for the first time, essays written as a contribution to the supply side revolution in Britain. Some focus on monetary and fiscal policy, while others deal with the principles and mechanisms for supply side reform. Taken together, they represent an invaluable source book and reference point on the political philosophy and economic strategy of the Thatcher era. The essays were all written for a wide audience and will be essential reading for both economists and non-economists alike.