Paul Morland – författare

'Superbly explained' Washington Post'Fascinating' Sunday Times'Engrossing' Evening StandardEvery phase since the advent of the industrial revolution - from the fate of the British Empire, to the global challenges from Germany, Japan and Russia, to America's emergence as a sole superpower, to the Arab Spring, to the long-term decline of economic growth that started with Japan and has now spread to Europe, to China's meteoric economy, to Brexit and the presidency of Donald Trump - can be explained better when we appreciate the meaning of demographic change across the world.The Human Tide is the first popular history book to redress the underestimated influence of population as a crucial factor in almost all of the major global shifts and events of the last two centuries - revealing how such events are connected by the invisible mutually catalysing forces of population.This highly original history offers a brilliant and simple unifying theory for our understanding the last two hundred years: the power of sheer numbers. An ambitious, original, magisterial history of modernity, it taps into prominent preoccupations of our day and will transform our perception of history for many years to come.

Demography has always mattered in conflict, but with conflict increasingly of an inter-ethnic nature, with sharper demographic differences between ethnic groups and with the spread of democracy, numbers count in conflict now more than ever. This book argues for and develops a framework for demographic engineering which provides a fresh perspective for looking at political events in countries where ethnicity matters. It asks how policies have been framed and implemented to change the demography of ethnic groups on the ground in their own interests. It also examines how successful these policies have been, focusing on the cases of Sri Lanka, Israel/Palestine, Northern Ireland and the USA. Often these policies are hidden but author Paul Morland teases them out with skill both from the statistics and documentary records and through conversations with participants. Offering a new way of thinking about demographic engineering (’hard demography’ versus ’soft demography’) and how ethnic groups in conflict deploy demographic strategies, this book will have a broad appeal to demographers, geographers and political scientists.

Demography has always mattered in conflict, but with conflict increasingly of an inter-ethnic nature, with sharper demographic differences between ethnic groups and with the spread of democracy, numbers count in conflict now more than ever. This book argues for and develops a framework for demographic engineering which provides a fresh perspective for looking at political events in countries where ethnicity matters. It asks how policies have been framed and implemented to change the demography of ethnic groups on the ground in their own interests. It also examines how successful these policies have been, focusing on the cases of Sri Lanka, Israel/Palestine, Northern Ireland and the USA. Often these policies are hidden but author Paul Morland teases them out with skill both from the statistics and documentary records and through conversations with participants. Offering a new way of thinking about demographic engineering (’hard demography’ versus ’soft demography’) and how ethnic groups in conflict deploy demographic strategies, this book will have a broad appeal to demographers, geographers and political scientists.

Demography has always mattered in conflict, but with conflict increasingly of an inter-ethnic nature, with sharper demographic differences between ethnic groups and with the spread of democracy, numbers count in conflict now more than ever. This book argues for and develops a framework for demographic engineering which provides a fresh perspective for looking at political events in countries where ethnicity matters. It asks how policies have been framed and implemented to change the demography of ethnic groups on the ground in their own interests. It also examines how successful these policies have been, focusing on the cases of Sri Lanka, Israel/Palestine, Northern Ireland and the USA. Often these policies are hidden but author Paul Morland teases them out with skill both from the statistics and documentary records and through conversations with participants. Offering a new way of thinking about demographic engineering (’hard demography’ versus ’soft demography’) and how ethnic groups in conflict deploy demographic strategies, this book will have a broad appeal to demographers, geographers and political scientists.

Demography has always mattered in conflict, but with conflict increasingly of an inter-ethnic nature, with sharper demographic differences between ethnic groups and with the spread of democracy, numbers count in conflict now more than ever. This book argues for and develops a framework for demographic engineering which provides a fresh perspective for looking at political events in countries where ethnicity matters. It asks how policies have been framed and implemented to change the demography of ethnic groups on the ground in their own interests. It also examines how successful these policies have been, focusing on the cases of Sri Lanka, Israel/Palestine, Northern Ireland and the USA. Often these policies are hidden but author Paul Morland teases them out with skill both from the statistics and documentary records and through conversations with participants. Offering a new way of thinking about demographic engineering (’hard demography’ versus ’soft demography’) and how ethnic groups in conflict deploy demographic strategies, this book will have a broad appeal to demographers, geographers and political scientists.

We are entering an era of population decline across the developed world (and beyond). Few have given serious thought to what this might mean economically. Will an ageing society and dwindling population be easily accommodated or strike at the very heart of our prosperity?Paul Morland and Philip Pilkington argue that the consequences of the coming demographic upheaval will be economically devastating. All of the assumptions of economists – that a world of above-replacement birth rates and gentle annual population growth could be taken for granted – are being upended. Once economics drove population changes, but now demography is the most fundamental force shaping our economic future. Bust addresses everything from labour and capital markets to housing and the welfare state, showing the profoundly worrying consequences of a shrinking working age population and an ageing society. Unless we take radical action to bolster birth rates, we face a future of falling living standards, high inflation and low growth.This book shines a penetrating light on one of the most ominous – and least understood – economic and social challenges of the twenty-first century. No-one who reads it will look upon public policy or the future of our society in the same way again.

‘Morland predicts the future of humanity in 10 illuminating statistics (could the Japanese and Italians now go the way of the dodo?) and looks back to how ebbs and flows of population have shaped history, such as the Soviet Union’s plummeting birth rate in the 1960s, which hastened the end of the Cold War.’ - The Daily Telegraph ‘The Best Books for Summer 2022’The great forces of population change – the balance of births, deaths and migrations – have made the world what it is today. They have determined which countries are superpowers and which languish in relative obscurity, which economies top the international league tables and which are at best also-rans.The same forces that have shaped our past and present are shaping our future. Illustrating this through ten illuminating indicators, from the fertility rate in Singapore (one) to the median age in Catalonia (forty-three), Paul Morland shows how demography is both a powerful and an under-appreciated lens through which to view the global transformations that are currently underway.Tomorrow’s People ranges from the countries of West Africa where the tendency towards large families is combining with falling infant mortality to create the greatest population explosion ever witnessed, to the countries of East Asia and Southern Europe where generations of low birth-rate and rising life expectancy are creating the oldest populations in history. Morland explores the geographical movements of peoples that are already under way – portents for still larger migrations ahead – which are radically changing the cultural, ethnic and religious composition of many societies across the globe, and in their turn creating political reaction that can be observed from Brexit to the rise of Donald Trump. Finally, he looks at the two underlying motors of change – remarkable rises in levels of education and burgeoning food production – which have made all these epochal developments possible.Tomorrow’s People provides a fascinating, illuminating and thought-provoking tour of an emerging new world. Nobody who wants to understand that world should be without it.

‘Morland predicts the future of humanity in 10 illuminating statistics (could the Japanese and Italians now go the way of the dodo?) and looks back to how ebbs and flows of population have shaped history, such as the Soviet Union’s plummeting birth rate in the 1960s, which hastened the end of the Cold War.’ - The Daily Telegraph ‘The Best Books for Summer 2022’The great forces of population change – the balance of births, deaths and migrations – have made the world what it is today. They have determined which countries are superpowers and which languish in relative obscurity, which economies top the international league tables and which are at best also-rans.The same forces that have shaped our past and present are shaping our future. Illustrating this through ten illuminating indicators, from the fertility rate in Singapore (one) to the median age in Catalonia (forty-three), Paul Morland shows how demography is both a powerful and an under-appreciated lens through which to view the global transformations that are currently underway.Tomorrow’s People ranges from the countries of West Africa where the tendency towards large families is combining with falling infant mortality to create the greatest population explosion ever witnessed, to the countries of East Asia and Southern Europe where generations of low birth-rate and rising life expectancy are creating the oldest populations in history. Morland explores the geographical movements of peoples that are already under way – portents for still larger migrations ahead – which are radically changing the cultural, ethnic and religious composition of many societies across the globe, and in their turn creating political reaction that can be observed from Brexit to the rise of Donald Trump. Finally, he looks at the two underlying motors of change – remarkable rises in levels of education and burgeoning food production – which have made all these epochal developments possible.Tomorrow’s People provides a fascinating, illuminating and thought-provoking tour of an emerging new world. Nobody who wants to understand that world should be without it.

'Highly readable ... Everything we need to know on this subject' Financial Times'Fascinating' Geographical Magazine'A must read for anyone wanting to understand the forces shaping our world' Eliza Filby'A compelling argument for having more children' New StatesmanA population calamity is unfolding before our eyes. It started in parts of the developed world and is spreading to the four corners of the globe. There are just too few babies being born for humanity to replace itself.Leading demographer Paul Morland argues that the consequences of this promise to be calamitous. Labour shortages, pensions crises and ballooning debt threaten to engulf us all, and sooner than we think. Unless we radically change our attitudes towards parenthood and embrace a new progressive pro-natalism, argues Morland, we face disaster.

Wie Demografie unsere Welt erklärtDemografische Übergänge, die einst mehrere Generationen Zeit brauchten, vollziehen sich heute in nur wenigen Jahrzehnten – und wir sind mittendrin! Bevölkerungen wachsen oder schrumpfen, werden jünger oder älter, explodieren, emigrieren oder formieren sich neu. Seit der Industrialisierung bewegen sich Bevölkerungstrends nicht mehr im Schneckentempo. Genau das macht die Demografie zu einer spannenden Wissenschaft, die uns ganz neue Erklärungsmodelle für das Zeitgeschehen liefern kann:- Wie gestaltet sich das Wechselspiel zwischen technischem Fortschritt und Bevölkerungswachstum?- Beeinflusst eine höhere Lebenserwartung das globale Machtgefüge?- Welche Auswirkungen haben sinkende Geburtenraten auf die Weltgeschichte?- Wie können wir den demografischen Wandel besser verstehen und angemessen darauf reagieren?Demografische Daten – und was wir daraus lernen könnenDie Demografie ist tief im Leben verankert. In gewisser Hinsicht ist sie mit ihren Daten zu Geburtenrate, Lebenserwartung und Migration das Leben selbst, denn sie bildet es exakt ab. Doch erst wenn man die Bevölkerungswissenschaft im Zusammenspiel mit anderen Faktoren wie Wirtschaftsentwicklung, technischem Fortschritt und Verbrei-tung von Ideologien betrachtet, liefert sie uns Erklärungen für den Lauf der Weltgeschichte.Paul Morland, Demografieforscher am Birkbeck College der Universität London, rückt mit seinem Buch die Bevölkerungsentwicklung und den globalen demografischen Wandel in den Blick. Er erzählt die Geschichte der modernen Welt neu – erkenntnisreich und faszinierend!