Richard A. Davis - Böcker

Model a Wide Range of Count Time Series Handbook of Discrete-Valued Time Series presents state-of-the-art methods for modeling time series of counts and incorporates frequentist and Bayesian approaches for discrete-valued spatio-temporal data and multivariate data. While the book focuses on time series of counts, some of the techniques discussed can be applied to other types of discrete-valued time series, such as binary-valued or categorical time series.Explore a Balanced Treatment of Frequentist and Bayesian Perspectives Accessible to graduate-level students who have taken an elementary class in statistical time series analysis, the book begins with the history and current methods for modeling and analyzing univariate count series. It next discusses diagnostics and applications before proceeding to binary and categorical time series. The book then provides a guide to modern methods for discrete-valued spatio-temporal data, illustrating how far modern applications have evolved from their roots. The book ends with a focus on multivariate and long-memory count series.Get Guidance from Masters in the FieldWritten by a cohesive group of distinguished contributors, this handbook provides a unified account of the diverse techniques available for observation- and parameter-driven models. It covers likelihood and approximate likelihood methods, estimating equations, simulation methods, and a Bayesian approach for model fitting.

The analysis of time series data is an important aspect of data analysis across a wide range of disciplines, including statistics, mathematics, business, engineering, and the natural and social sciences. This package provides both an introduction to time series analysis and an easy-to-use version of a well-known time series computing package called Interactive Time Series Modelling. The programs in the package are intended as a supplement to the text Time Series: Theory and Methods, 2nd edition, also by Peter J. Brockwell and Richard A. Davis. Many researchers and professionals will appreciate this straightforward approach enabling them to run desk-top analyses of their time series data. Amongst the many facilities available are tools for: ARIMA modelling, smoothing, spectral estimation, multivariate autoregressive modelling, transfer-function modelling, forecasting, and long-memory modelling. This version is designed to run under Microsoft Windows 3.1 or later. It comes with two diskettes: one suitable for less powerful machines (IBM PC 286 or later with 540K available RAM and 1.1 MB of hard disk space) and one for more powerful machines (IBM PC 386 or later with 8MB of RAM and 2.6 MB of hard disk space available).

This edition contains a large number of additions and corrections scattered throughout the text, including the incorporation of a new chapter on state-space models.

Designed for the analysis of linear time series and the practical modelling and prediction of data collected sequentially in time. It provides the reader with a practical understanding of the six programs contained in the ITSM software (PEST, SPEC, SMOOTH, TRANS, ARVEC, and ARAR). This IBM compatible software is included in the back of the book on two 5 1/4'' diskettes and on one 3 1/2 '' diskette. - Easy to use menu system - Accessible to those with little or no previous compu- tational experience - Valuable to students in statistics, mathematics, busi- ness, engineering, and the natural and social sciences. This package is intended as a supplement to the text by the same authors, "Time Series: Theory and Methods." It can also be used in conjunction with most undergraduate and graduate texts on time series analysis.

It's the Subtleties that Matter! What is the real difference between competent leader and extraordinary executive? Is it pedigree, experience, intelligence? The answer is yes...and much more. Exceptional leadership hinges on a complex interaction between individual psychology and unique business needs. At the top rung of the ladder, where the dynamics are most complicated, subtle adjustments in style can produce outstanding results.In his new book, The Intangibles of Leadership, Management Psychologist Richard Davis, Ph.D., uncovers patterns in the attributes that truly distinguish those who succeed at the top. What he found was that extraordinary leaders possess certain characteristics that fall between the lines of existing leadership models, yet are fundamental to executive success. Davis explains each of these qualities, the people who exemplify them, how to detect them in others, and most importantly, how to develop the subtle characteristics that will enable them to stand out from the pack.Learn why... It's often better to aim for silver than for goldPlaying hard to get attracts people to youIt's important to have a slightly inflated view of your abilitiesYour peripheral vision is so importantIt's ok to get angry with your teamSo many extraordinary executives have gone through crises early in their lives

This edition contains a large number of additions and corrections scattered throughout the text, including the incorporation of a new chapter on state-space models. The companion diskette for the IBM PC has expanded into the software package ITSM: An Interactive Time Series Modelling Package for the PC, which includes a manual and can be ordered from Springer-Verlag. * We are indebted to many readers who have used the book and programs and made suggestions for improvements. Unfortunately there is not enough space to acknowledge all who have contributed in this way; however, special mention must be made of our prize-winning fault-finders, Sid Resnick and F. Pukelsheim. Special mention should also be made of Anthony Brockwell, whose advice and support on computing matters was invaluable in the preparation of the new diskettes. We have been fortunate to work on the new edition in the excellent environments provided by the University of Melbourne and Colorado State University. We thank Duane Boes particularly for his support and encouragement throughout, and the Australian Research Council and National Science Foundation for their support of research related to the new material. We are also indebted to Springer-Verlag for their constant support and assistance in preparing the second edition. Fort Collins, Colorado P. J. BROCKWELL November, 1990 R. A. DAVIS * /TSM: An Interactive Time Series Modelling Package for the PC by P. J. Brockwell and R. A. Davis. ISBN: 0-387-97482-2; 1991.

During the second half of the 20th century, Murray Rosenblatt was one of the most celebrated and leading figures in probability and statistics.  Among his many contributions, Rosenblatt conducted seminal work on density estimation, central limit theorems under strong mixing conditions, spectral domain methodology, long memory processes and Markov processes. He has published over 130 papers and 5 books, many as relevant today as when they first appeared decades ago. Murray Rosenblatt was one of the founding members of the Department of Mathematics at the University of California at San Diego (UCSD) and served as advisor to over twenty PhD students. He maintains a close association with UCSD in his role as Professor Emeritus. This volume is a celebration of Murray Rosenblatt's stellar research career that spans over six decades, and includes some of his most interesting and influential papers. Several leading experts provide commentary and reflections on various directions of Murray's research portfolio.

Model a Wide Range of Count Time Series Handbook of Discrete-Valued Time Series presents state-of-the-art methods for modeling time series of counts and incorporates frequentist and Bayesian approaches for discrete-valued spatio-temporal data and multivariate data. While the book focuses on time series of counts, some of the techniques discussed can be applied to other types of discrete-valued time series, such as binary-valued or categorical time series.Explore a Balanced Treatment of Frequentist and Bayesian Perspectives Accessible to graduate-level students who have taken an elementary class in statistical time series analysis, the book begins with the history and current methods for modeling and analyzing univariate count series. It next discusses diagnostics and applications before proceeding to binary and categorical time series. The book then provides a guide to modern methods for discrete-valued spatio-temporal data, illustrating how far modern applications have evolved from their roots. The book ends with a focus on multivariate and long-memory count series.Get Guidance from Masters in the FieldWritten by a cohesive group of distinguished contributors, this handbook provides a unified account of the diverse techniques available for observation- and parameter-driven models. It covers likelihood and approximate likelihood methods, estimating equations, simulation methods, and a Bayesian approach for model fitting.

Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory accessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and nonstationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introductions are also given to cointegration and to nonlinear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.

During the second half of the 20th century, Murray Rosenblatt was one of the most celebrated and leading figures in probability and statistics. This volume is a celebration of Murray Rosenblatt's stellar research career that spans over six decades, and includes some of his most interesting and influential papers.

In the late 1800s W.E.B. Dubois asked what it really means to be black in America. He raised the spectre of divided loyalties and the blurring of individuality that he called "Double Consciousness". This volume offers an insight into this "dilemma of identity" by asking the seemingly rhetorical question, what does O.J. Simpson have in common with the participants in the Million Man March, the jury that set him free, the people who inexplicably cheered his acquittal, the prosecuting attorney, the black Muslim Louis Farrakhan, or with his own children? Each case involves cross-cutting currents of age, sex, religion, race, ethnicity, class and ideology. But what they share among themselves, and with the rest of the nation, is the firm conviction that they are black. The author aims to reveal the importance of this imaginary bond, this ethnic ethic, this myth of black ethnicity. He explores its creation, its evolution and its role in linking together the many generations of blacks in America. Dr Davis also seeks to show: how this myth connects the slave huts of Alabama to O.J.'s Brentwood estate; how it connects him to his jury emancipators; how it connects Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to discussions of affirmative action; and how it connects an ancient Juffure villager named Kunta Kinte to contemporary slum dwellers in Harlem.The book argues that it is not race that ties these diverse millions together, but a co-operatively developed paradigm shared by blacks and non-blacks alike as to what constitutes an authentic black existence. By de-bunking the myth, the author seeks to point the way to a fuller recognition of the individual differences that blacks have always had but that are becoming more apparent as the opportunity to express them becomes more prevalent.

In the late 1800s W.E.B. Dubois asked what it really means to be black in America. He raised the spectre of divided loyalties and the blurring of individuality that he called "Double Consciousness". This volume offers an insight into this "dilemma of identity" by asking the seemingly rhetorical question, what does O.J. Simpson have in common with the participants in the Million Man March, the jury that set him free, the people who inexplicably cheered his acquittal, the prosecuting attorney, the black Muslim Louis Farrakhan, or with his own children? Each case involves cross-cutting currents of age, sex, religion, race, ethnicity, class and ideology. But what they share among themselves, and with the rest of the nation, is the firm conviction that they are black. The author aims to reveal the importance of this imaginary bond, this ethnic ethic, this myth of black ethnicity. He explores its creation, its evolution and its role in linking together the many generations of blacks in America. Dr Davis also seeks to show: how this myth connects the slave huts of Alabama to O.J.'s Brentwood estate; how it connects him to his jury emancipators; how it connects Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to discussions of affirmative action; and how it connects an ancient Juffure villager named Kunta Kinte to contemporary slum dwellers in Harlem.The book argues that it is not race that ties these diverse millions together, but a co-operatively developed paradigm shared by blacks and non-blacks alike as to what constitutes an authentic black existence. By de-bunking the myth, the author seeks to point the way to a fuller recognition of the individual differences that blacks have always had but that are becoming more apparent as the opportunity to express them becomes more prevalent.

This book is aimed at the reader who wishes to gain a working knowledge of time series and forecasting methods as applied to economics, engineering and the natural and social sciences.

The Handbook of Financial Time Series, edited by Andersen, Davis, Kreiss and Mikosch, is an impressive collection of survey articles by many of the leading contributors to the ?eld. These articles are mostly very clearly wr- ten and present a sweep of the literature in a coherent pedagogical manner. The level of most of the contributions is mathematically sophisticated, and I imagine many of these chapters will ?nd their way onto graduate reading lists in courses in ?nancial economics and ?nancial econometrics. In reading through these papers, I found many new insights and presentations even in areas that I know well. The book is divided into ?ve broad sections: GARCH-Modeling, Stoch- tic Volatility Modeling, Continuous Time Processes, Cointegration and Unit Roots, and Special Topics. These correspond generally to classes of stoch- tic processes that are applied in various ?nance contexts. However, there are otherthemesthatcutacrosstheseclasses.Thereareseveralpapersthatca- fully articulate the probabilistic structure of these classes, while others are morefocusedonestimation.Stillothersderivepropertiesofextremesforeach class of processes, and evaluate persistence and the extent of long memory.Papers in many cases examine the stability of the process with tools to check for breaks and jumps. Finally there are applications to options, term str- ture, credit derivatives, risk management, microstructure models and other forecasting settings.