Robert J Elliott - Böcker

This book presents the mathematics that underpins pricing models for derivative securities, such as options, futures and swaps, in modern financial markets. The idealized continuous-time models built upon the famous Black-Scholes theory require sophisticated mathematical tools drawn from modern stochastic calculus. However, many of the underlying ideas can be explained more simply within a discrete-time framework. This is developed extensively in this substantially revised second edition to motivate the technically more demanding continuous-time theory, which includes a detailed analysis of the Black-Scholes model and its generalizations, American put options, term structure models and consumption-investment problems. The mathematics of martingales and stochastic calculus is developed where it is needed.The new edition adds substantial material from current areas of active research, notably:- a new chapter on coherent risk measures, with applications to hedging - a complete proof of the first fundamental theorem of asset pricing for general discrete market models the arbitrage interval for incomplete discrete-time markets - characterization of complete discrete-time markets, using extended models - risk and return and sensitivity analysis for the Black-Scholes model The treatment remains careful and detailed rather than comprehensive, with a clear focus on options. From here the reader can progress to the current research literature and the use of similar methods for more exotic financial instruments. The text should prove useful to graduates with a sound mathematical background, ideally a knowledge of elementary concepts from measure-theoretic probability, who wish to understand the mathematical models on which the bewildering multitude of current financial instruments used in derivative markets and credit institutions is based.The first edition has been used successfully in a wide range of Master's programs in mathematical finance and this new edition should prove even more popular in this expanding market. It should equally be useful to risk managers and practitioners looking to master the mathematical tools needed for modern pricing and hedging techniques.Robert J. Elliott is RBC Financial Group Professor of Finance at the Haskayne School of Business at the University of Calgary, having held positions in mathematics at the University of Alberta, Hull, Oxford, Warwick, and Northwestern. He is the author of over 300 research papers and several books, including Stochastic Calculus and Applications, Hidden Markov Models (with Lahkdar Aggoun and John Moore) and, with Lakhdar Aggoun, Measure Theory and Filtering: Theory and Applications. He is an Associate Editor of Mathematical Finance, Stochastics and Stochastics Reports, Stochastic Analysis and Applications and the Canadian Applied Mathematics Quarterly. P. Ekkehard Kopp is Professor of Mathematics, and a former Pro-Vice-Chancellor, at the University of Hull.He is the author of Martingales and Stochastic Integrals, Analysis and, with Marek Capinski, of Measure, Integral and Probability. He is a member of the Editorial Board of Springer Finance.

This book deals with many topics in modern financial mathematics in a way that does not use advanced mathematical tools and shows how these models can be numerically implemented in a practical way. The book is aimed at undergraduate students, MBA students, and executives who wish to understand and apply financial models in the spreadsheet computing environment.The basic building block is the one step binomial model where a known price today can take one of two possible values at the next time. In this simple situation, risk neutral pricing can be defined and the model can be applied to price forward contracts, exchange rate contracts, and interest rate derivatives. The simple one period framework can then be extended to multi period models. The authors show how binomial tree models can be constructed for several applications to bring about valuations consistent with market prices. The book closes with a novel discussion of real options.

A number of methodologies have been employed to provide decision making solutions to a whole assortment of financial problems in today's globalized markets.

As more applications are found, interest in Hidden Markov Models continues to grow. Following comments and feedback from colleagues, students and other working with Hidden Markov Models the corrected 3rd printing of this volume contains clarifications, improvements and some new material, including results on smoothing for linear Gaussian dynamics. In Chapter 2 the derivation of the basic filters related to the Markov chain are each presented explicitly, rather than as special cases of one general filter. Furthermore, equations for smoothed estimates are given. The dynamics for the Kalman filter are derived as special cases of the authors’ general results and new expressions for a Kalman smoother are given. The Chapters on the control of Hidden Markov Chains are expanded and clarified. The revised Chapter 4 includes state estimation for discrete time Markov processes and Chapter 12 has a new section on robust control.

The estimation of noisily observed states from a sequence of data has traditionally incorporated ideas from Hilbert spaces and calculus-based probability theory. As conditional expectation is the key concept, the correct setting for filtering theory is that of a probability space. Graduate engineers, mathematicians and those working in quantitative finance wishing to use filtering techniques will find in the first half of this book an accessible introduction to measure theory, stochastic calculus, and stochastic processes, with particular emphasis on martingales and Brownian motion. Exercises are included. The book then provides an excellent users' guide to filtering: basic theory is followed by a thorough treatment of Kalman filtering, including recent results which extend the Kalman filter to provide parameter estimates. These ideas are then applied to problems arising in finance, genetics and population modelling in three separate chapters, making this a comprehensive resource for both practitioners and researchers.

Includes a collection of chapters by some of the most distinguished researchers and practitioners in the field of mathematical finance and financial engineering. Presenting the developments in theory and practice, this book offers applications to fixed income models, credit risk models, CDO pricing, tax rebates, tax arbitrage, and tax equilibrium.

The estimation of noisily observed states from a sequence of data has traditionally incorporated ideas from Hilbert spaces and calculus-based probability theory. As conditional expectation is the key concept, the correct setting for filtering theory is that of a probability space. Graduate engineers, mathematicians and those working in quantitative finance wishing to use filtering techniques will find in the first half of this book an accessible introduction to measure theory, stochastic calculus, and stochastic processes, with particular emphasis on martingales and Brownian motion. Exercises are included. The book then provides an excellent users' guide to filtering: basic theory is followed by a thorough treatment of Kalman filtering, including recent results which extend the Kalman filter to provide parameter estimates. These ideas are then applied to problems arising in finance, genetics and population modelling in three separate chapters, making this a comprehensive resource for both practitioners and researchers.

Markov chains and hidden Markov chains have applications in many areas of engineering and genomics. This book provides a basic introduction to the subject by first developing the theory of Markov processes in an elementary discrete time, finite state framework suitable for senior undergraduates and graduates. The authors then introduce semi-Markov chains and hidden semi-Markov chains, before developing related estimation and filtering results. Genomics applications are modelled by discrete observations of these hidden semi-Markov chains. This book contains new results and previously unpublished material not available elsewhere. The approach is rigorous and focused on applications.

This work is aimed at an audience with a sound mathematical background wishing to learn about the rapidly expanding ?eld of mathematical ?nance. Its content is suitable particularly for graduate students in mathematics who have a background in measure theory and probability. The emphasis throughout is on developing the mathematical concepts required for the theory within the context of their application. No attempt is made to cover the bewildering variety of novel (or ‘exotic’) ?nancial - struments that now appear on the derivatives markets; the focus throu- out remains on a rigorous development of the more basic options that lie at the heart of the remarkable range of current applications of martingale theory to ?nancial markets. The ?rst ?ve chapters present the theory in a discrete-time framework. Stochastic calculus is not required, and this material should be accessible to anyone familiar with elementary probability theory and linear algebra. The basic idea of pricing by arbitrage (or, rather, by non-arbitrage) is presented in Chapter 1. The unique price for a European option in a single-period binomial model is given and then extended to multi-period binomial models. Chapter 2 introduces the idea of a martingale measure for price processes. Following a discussion of the use of self-?nancing tr- ing strategies to hedge against trading risk, it is shown how options can be priced using an equivalent measure for which the discounted price p- cess is a martingale.

This book deals with many topics in modern financial mathematics in a way that does not use advanced mathematical tools and shows how these models can be numerically implemented in a practical way. The book is aimed at undergraduate students, MBA students, and executives who wish to understand and apply financial models in the spreadsheet computing environment. The basic building block is the one-step binomial model where a known price today can take one of two possible values at the next time. In this simple situation, risk neutral pricing can be defined and the model can be applied to price forward contracts, exchange rate contracts, and interest rate derivatives. The simple one-period framework can then be extended to multi-period models. The authors show how binomial tree models can be constructed for several applications to bring about valuations consistent with market prices. The book closes with a novel discussion of real options.From the reviews: "Overall, this is an excellent 'workbook' for practitioners who seek to understand and apply financial asset price models by working through a comprehensive collection of both theoretical and dataset-driven numerical examples, follwoed by up to 15 end-of-chapter exercises with elaborated parts taht help clarify the mathematical and computational aspects of the chapter." Wai F. Chiu for the Journal of the American Statistical Association, December 2006

As more applications are found, interest in Hidden Markov Models continues to grow.

A number of methodologies have been employed to provide decision making solutions globalized markets. Hidden Markov Models in Finance offers the first systematic application of these methods to specialized financial problems: option pricing, credit risk modeling, volatility estimation and more. The book provides tools for sorting through turbulence, volatility, emotion, chaotic events -- the random "noise" of financial markets -- to analyze core components.

Hidden Markov Models in Finance

Since the groundbreaking research of Harry Markowitz into the application of operations research to the optimization of investment portfolios, finance has been one of the most important areas of application of operations research. The use of hidden Markov models (HMMs) has become one of the hottest areas of research for such applications to finance. This handbook offers systemic applications of different methodologies that have been used for decision making solutions to the financial problems of global markets. As the follow-up to the authors’ Hidden Markov Models in Finance (2007), this offers the latest research developments and applications of HMMs to finance and other related fields. Amongst the fields of quantitative finance and actuarial science that will be covered are: interest rate theory, fixed-income instruments, currency market, annuity and insurance policies with option-embedded features, investment strategies, commodity markets, energy, high-frequency trading, credit risk, numerical algorithms, financial econometrics and operational risk.Hidden Markov Models in Finance: Further Developments and Applications, Volume II presents recent applications and case studies in finance and showcases the formulation of emerging potential applications of new research over the book’s 11 chapters. This will benefit not only researchers in financial modeling, but also others in fields such as engineering, the physical sciences and social sciences. Ultimately the handbook should prove to be a valuable resource to dynamic researchers interested in taking full advantage of the power and versatility of HMMs in accurately and efficiently capturing many of the processes in the financial market.

Completely revised and greatly expanded, the new edition of this text takes readers who have been exposed to only basic courses in analysis through the modern general theory of random processes and stochastic integrals as used by systems theorists, electronic engineers and, more recently, those working in quantitative and mathematical finance.