Sebastian-Ilie Dragoe – författare

This book examines the main causes of financial instability and highlights that,with the exception of wars and pandemics, the financial system is the source of thecrisis, not just a means of spreading it, as most mainstream experts believe. Based onthe following findings, the innovative sections of this book provide academics andpolicymakers with important and practical knowledge: because negative shifts in thefinancial system precede recessions, financial indicators can predict the onset of acrisis much earlier than real variables; the proposed recession forecasting model canpredict the emergence of the crisis a month in advance. When the economy’s sensitivityto the financial system is reduced, there will be only modest negative economicgrowth and no true recessions.