Thomas Orlik – författare

If you liked this Short, you might also like Understanding China's Economic Indicators: Translating the Data into Investment Opportunities (9780132620192) by Thomas M. Orlik. Available in print and digital formats.

 

Beyond the bottom line: uncovering powerful, crucial insights hidden within China’s GDP data.

 

China’s GDP data is the most comprehensive indicator of its economy’s strength and momentum. For many global investors, consistent GDP growth averaging almost 10% a year was the only thing they needed to know about the Chinese economy. However, GDP breakdowns by sector output, expenditure, and region are important tools for policymakers concerned about whether China can sustain growth.

The Chinese economy appears destined for failure, the financial bubble forever in peril of popping, the real estate sector doomed to collapse, the factories fated for bankruptcy. A banking system more than twice the size of the U.S. and an economy still a third smaller. A looming trade war with the United States that threatens to lock its factories out of the world's biggest market. An urban landscape littered with ghost towns of empty property. An industrial sector strewn with state-owned zombie firms. A two-hundred million strong migrant workforce treated as second-class citizens in the cities where they live and work. And yet, against the odds and against expectations, growth continues, wealth rises, global influence expands. The coming collapse of China is always coming, never arriving.Tom Orlik, a veteran of more than a decade on the ground in Beijing and Shanghai, turns the spotlight on China's fragile fundamentals, and resources for resilience. Drawing on discussions with the Communist cadres planning China's rise, the bankers providing the financing, and the laborers sweating the construction sites, Orlik pieces together a unique perspective on China's past, present, and possible futures. From Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening to Xi Jinping's anti-corruption crackdown, Orlik traces the policy steps and missteps that have taken China to the brink of a "Lehman moment" credit crisis. From corporate balance sheets to the stories of shadow bankers, he plumbs the depths of financial risks. From Japan in 1989, to Korea in 1997, the U.S. in 2007, and Greece in 2010, he positions China in the context of a rolling series of global crisis. Mapping out possible scenarios, Orlik enhances our understanding of the economic and financial dynamics and what will happens if the bubble that never bursts finally does. While the magnitude of the shock that would deliver to China and the world would be tremendous, perhaps even more destabilizing is if China defies the doubters by continuing to rise.

The Chinese economy appears destined for failure, the financial bubble forever in peril of popping, the real estate sector doomed to collapse, the factories fated for bankruptcy. Banks drowning in bad loans. An urban landscape littered with ghost towns of empty property. Industrial zones stalked by zombie firms. Trade tariffs blocking the path to global markets.And yet, against the odds and against expectations, growth continues, wealth rises, international influence expands. The coming collapse of China is always coming, never arriving.Thomas Orlik, a veteran of more than a decade in Beijing, turns the spotlight on China''s fragile fundamentals, and resources for resilience. Drawing on discussions with Communist cadres, shadow bankers, and migrant workers, Orlik pieces together a unique perspective on China''s past, present, and possible futures.From Deng Xiaoping''s reform and opening to Donald Trump''s trade war, Orlik traces the policy steps and missteps that have taken China to the brink of a "Lehman moment" credit crisis. Delving into the balance sheets for banks, corporates, and local governments, he plumbs the depths of financial risks. From Japan in 1989, to Korea in 1997, to the U.S. in 2007, he positions China in the context of a rolling series of global crisis.Mapping possible scenarios, Orlik games out what will happens if the bubble that never pops finally does. The magnitude of the shock to China and the world would be tremendous. For those in the West nervously watching China''s rise as a geopolitical challenger, the alternative could be even less palatable.

The Chinese economy appears destined for failure, the financial bubble forever in peril of popping, the real estate sector doomed to collapse, the factories fated for bankruptcy. Banks drowning in bad loans. An urban landscape littered with ghost towns of empty property. Industrial zones stalked by zombie firms. Trade tariffs blocking the path to global markets.And yet, against the odds and against expectations, growth continues, wealth rises, international influence expands. The coming collapse of China is always coming, never arriving.Thomas Orlik, a veteran of more than a decade in Beijing, turns the spotlight on China''s fragile fundamentals, and resources for resilience. Drawing on discussions with Communist cadres, shadow bankers, and migrant workers, Orlik pieces together a unique perspective on China''s past, present, and possible futures.From Deng Xiaoping''s reform and opening to Donald Trump''s trade war, Orlik traces the policy steps and missteps that have taken China to the brink of a "Lehman moment" credit crisis. Delving into the balance sheets for banks, corporates, and local governments, he plumbs the depths of financial risks. From Japan in 1989, to Korea in 1997, to the U.S. in 2007, he positions China in the context of a rolling series of global crisis.Mapping possible scenarios, Orlik games out what will happens if the bubble that never pops finally does. The magnitude of the shock to China and the world would be tremendous. For those in the West nervously watching China''s rise as a geopolitical challenger, the alternative could be even less palatable.