Tim Short - Böcker

This book is the first to demonstrate the practical implications of an important, yet under-considered area of psychology in helping traders and investors understand the biases and attribution errors that drive unpredictable behaviour on the trading floor. Readers will improve their chances of trading successfully by learning where cognitive biases lead to errors in stock analysis and how these biases can be used to predict behavior in market participants.Focusing on the three major types of bias—Belief-Formation, Quasi-Economic, and Social—the book provides a rigorous discussion of the literature before explaining how each of these biases plays out in financial markets. The author brings together the fields of philosophical psychology and behavioral finance to introduce "theory of mind," providing readers with tools to predict biases in others as well as using these predictions to form optimal trading strategies for themselves. Readers will also learn to understand their own behaviors, counteracting biases such as overconfidence and conformity—and the "curse" of their own knowledge—to strengthen trade performance. Pairing his skill and experience with an extensive research bibliography, Short positions the foundational sources of cognitive biases alongside concrete examples, experimental designs, and trader’s anecdotes, helping readers to apply theoretical guidelines to real-life scenarios.Shrewd professionals and MBA students will benefit from The Psychology of Successful Trading’s intuitive structure and practical focus.

This book is the first to demonstrate the practical implications of an important, yet under-considered area of psychology in helping traders and investors understand the biases and attribution errors that drive unpredictable behaviour on the trading floor. Readers will improve their chances of trading successfully by learning where cognitive biases lead to errors in stock analysis and how these biases can be used to predict behavior in market participants.Focusing on the three major types of bias—Belief-Formation, Quasi-Economic, and Social—the book provides a rigorous discussion of the literature before explaining how each of these biases plays out in financial markets. The author brings together the fields of philosophical psychology and behavioral finance to introduce "theory of mind," providing readers with tools to predict biases in others as well as using these predictions to form optimal trading strategies for themselves. Readers will also learn to understand their own behaviors, counteracting biases such as overconfidence and conformity—and the "curse" of their own knowledge—to strengthen trade performance. Pairing his skill and experience with an extensive research bibliography, Short positions the foundational sources of cognitive biases alongside concrete examples, experimental designs, and trader’s anecdotes, helping readers to apply theoretical guidelines to real-life scenarios.Shrewd professionals and MBA students will benefit from The Psychology of Successful Trading’s intuitive structure and practical focus.

Theory of Mind (ToM) is the term used for our ability to predict and explain the behaviour of ourselves and others. Accounts of this theory have so far fallen into two competing types: Simulation Theory and ‘Theory Theory’. In contrast with Theory Theory, Simulation Theory argues that we predict behaviour not by employing a model of people, but by replicating others’ thoughts and feelings. This book presents a novel defence of Simulation Theory, reviewing the major challenges against it and positing the theory as the most effective method for exploring how we know each other and ourselves.Drawing on key research in the field, chapters reopen the debates surrounding Theory of Mind and cover a variety of topics including schizophrenia with implications for experimental social psychology. In the past, one of the greatest criticisms against Simulation Theory is that it cannot explain systematic error in Theory of Mind. This book explores the rapidly developing heuristics and biases programme, pioneered by Kahneman and Tversky, to suggest that a novel bias mismatch defence available to Simulation Theory explains these systematic errors. Simulation Theory: A psychological and philosophical consideration will appeal to a range of researchers and academics, including psychologists from the fields of cognitive, social and developmental psychology, as well as philosophers, psychotherapists and practitioners looking for further research on Theory of Mind. The book will also be of relevance to those interested in autism, since it offers a new approach to Theory of Mind which explains central symptoms in autistic subjects.