Valerie Ramey – författare

Authoritative takes on the most current and pressing issues in macroeconomics today.The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for leading economists to participate in important debates in macroeconomics and to report on major developments in macroeconomic analysis and policy.The NBER Macroeconomics Annual brings together leading scholars to discuss five research papers on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. First, Andrea Eisfeldt, Antonio Falato, and Mindy Xiaolan document the rise of a new class of worker that receives part of its labor income as equity-based compensation, its role in the recent decline in the labor share of income, and implications for the returns to skilled labor and the implied capital-skill complementarity. Next, Michael Bauer and Eric Swanson focus on monetary policy shocks and argue the correlation between estimated monetary surprises and previously available information can be explained by uncertainty about the parameters of the monetary policy rule. Using new data and methods they find effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables that are much larger than previously estimated. Job Boerma and Loukas Karabarbounis provide a framework for quantitatively exploring the gap in wealth between White and Black Americans over the past 150 years and examine the effectiveness of reparations as a tool for closing this gap. Guido Menzio considers workers who do not have rational expectations, and whose “stubborn” beliefs change the response of wages to technology shocks, resulting in sticky wages. He finds that the larger the fraction of workers with stubborn beliefs, the more volatile unemployment is. Finally, Rishabh Aggarwal, Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie, and Ludwig Straub investigate the growth—particularly in the United States—of private savings, current account deficits, and fiscal deficits after 2020. They argue that fiscal deficits lead to large and persistent increases in private savings and current account deficits.

Provides a forum for leading economists to participate in important debates in macroeconomics and to report on major developments in macroeconomic analysis and policy.The NBER Macroeconomics Annual features research by leading scholars on important issues in contemporary macroeconomics. David Berger, Kyle Herkenhoff, Andreas Kostol, and Simon Mongey consider the importance of market power in the labor market and develop a theory of monopsony that incorporates worker-firm-specific preference heterogeneity, search frictions, and firm granularity. They apply this theory to analyze the effects of monopsony on wages, job flows, and welfare. Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, Fatih Karahan, and Ayşegül Şahin examine how supply chain disruptions and labor supply constraints contributed to the recent rise of inflation, recognizing their interactions with the shift of consumption from services to goods and expansionary monetary policy. Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, and Christina Patterson explore the hypothesis that slow productivity growth stems from an unbalanced sectoral distribution of innovation—because innovation depends on complementary innovations among input suppliers, there can be rapid technological progress in a subset of inputs but slow productivity growth in the aggregate. Greg Buchak, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski, and Amit Seru investigate two important margins of adjustment in credit markets—banks’ ability to sell loans and shadow bank activity—and argue that accounting for them is critical for analyzing how lending responds to economic or policy shocks and the way such shocks are amplified through financial intermediaries. Finally, Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta, Matthew O’Brien, and Andrei Shleifer demonstrate that overreaction of long-term profit expectations to reported profits could help reconcile Robert Shiller’s “excess volatility” puzzle with economic fluctuations more generally.

Provides a forum for leading economists to participate in important debates in macroeconomics and to report on major developments in macroeconomic analysis and policy.The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents research on central issues in contemporary macroeconomics. Martin Kornejew, Chen Lian, Yueran Ma, Pablo Ottonello, and Diego Perez investigate the role of bankruptcy institutions in mitigating the economic fallout of credit crunches following booms and find that efficient institutions reduce the adverse effect of credit tightening on GDP. Santiago Camara, Lawrence Christiano, and Hüsnü Dalgic analyze the global effects of US monetary policy shocks, with particular attention to trade channels and financial frictions, and find that tighter US monetary policy leads to more pronounced contractions in emerging markets than in advanced economies. David Altig, Alan Auerbach, Erin Eidschun, Laurence Kotlikoff, and Victor Yifan Ye assess the welfare costs of inflation through interactions with tax and benefit programs and show that imperfect indexation leads to welfare losses for some households and gains for others. Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, and Franck Portier examine inflation dynamics and find that supply shocks and inflation expectations are pivotal for explaining them. Finally, Davide Debortoli and Jordi Galí develop a simplified two-agent new Keynesian (TANK) model to emulate more complex heterogeneous agent new Keynesian (HANK) models, and use it to examine the many channels through which heterogeneity influences aggregate fluctuations.