Ziemba William T Ziemba – författare

This book introduces the readers to the rapidly growing literature and latest results on financial, fundamental and seasonal anomalies, stock selection modeling and portfolio management. Fifty years ago, finance professors taught the Efficient Markets Hypothesis which states that the average investor could not outperform the stock market based on technical, seasonal and fundamental data. Many, if not most faculty and investors, no longer share that opinion. In this book, the authors report original empirical evidence that applied investment research can produce statistically significant stock selection and excess portfolio returns in the US, and larger excess returns in international and emerging markets.

This book tells the story of how financial markets have evolved over time and became increasingly more complex. The author, a successful and experienced trader, who among other things won the 2015 battle of the quants futures contest held in New York, shares how one can navigate today''s dangerous financial markets and be successful. Readers at all levels will benefit from his analysis and many real life examples and experiences. The coverage is broad and there is considerable discussion on ways to stay out of trouble, protect oneself and grow one''s assets. The author was the first one to do turn of the year January effect trades in the futures markets starting in the beginning of S&P 500 futures trading in 1982. That has been successful and the author explains his ideas and experiences from the beginning in simple markets to the current, very complex markets we have in 2017.The author discusses the various ways that traders and investors lose money in the financial markets. Many examples are provided, including Long Term Capital Management, ENRON, Amarath, Neiderhoffer''s funds and many major companies such as Lehman Brothers, Society Generale, Saloman Brothers. This is invaluable to understanding ways to avoid such losses.The author discusses great investors, their methods and evaluation and the authors'' work with several of them. Risk arbitrage and mean reversion strategies are described through actual use. Asset-liability models for pension funds, insurance companies and other financial institutions devised by the author are described. The author uses racetrack bias ideas in behavorial finance in trading index futures and options. Large stock market crashes that can be predicted are discussed with several models of the author and others. Many mini crashes including the January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections that are plausible but largely unpredictable are described and how they were dealt with successfully.Along with ways to deal with them, investment in top quality racehorses, oriental carpets, real estate and other interesting investments are covered. The author was instrumental in viewing racing as a stock market. The ideas are used by the top racing syndicates as well as hedge funds.The book proceeds by weaving these aspects of the financial markets in the modern era into a story of the author''s academic, professional and personal life. This is told through the people he met and worked with and the academic and personal travel he had all over the world this past half century. The text is simply written with details, sources and references in the notes of each chapter. Details of various important events and how they evolved are described. There are numerous color and black and white photos in the text plus graphs, tables etc. in the notes to tell the story. The teaching and research into various financial and gambling markets takes the reader to interesting places around the world. These include the US and its many stock market ups and downs, Japan when they were ruling the financial world and then they collapsed, the UK visits with lectures, teaching and research work at their great Universities including Cambridge and Oxford, Europe with many activities in France, Italy, Germany and other places, to Asia including discussions about travels to Persia, Turkey, Singapore, Korea, China, Afghanistan, Russia and other countries. Also discussed are visits to U.S. universities including Chicago, MIT, Berkeley, UCLA and Washington. His work with horse racing syndicates took him to Australia and Hong Kong. Crises like those in Greece, US housing and internet and the flash crash are discussed.

''Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authors’ research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.''Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett''s value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby''s stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.

Over the last three decades, wine economics has emerged as a growing field within agricultural economics, but also in other fields such as finance, trade, growth, environmental economics and industrial organization. Wine has a few characteristics that differentiate it from other agricultural commodities, rendering it an interesting topic for economists in general. Fine wine can regularly fetch bottle prices that exceed several thousand dollars. It can be stored a long time and may increase in value with age. Fine wine quality and prices are extraordinarily sensitive to fluctuations in the weather of the year in which the grapes were grown. And wine is an experience good, i.e., its quality cannot be ascertained before consumption. As a result, consumers often rely on ''expert opinion'' regarding quality and maturation prospects.This handbook takes a broad approach and familiarizes the reader with the main research strands in wine economics.After a general introduction to wine economics by Karl Storchmann, Volume 1 focuses on the core areas of wine economics. The first papers shed light on the relevance of the vineyard''s natural environment for wine quality and prices. ''Predicting the Quality and Prices of Bordeaux Wine'' by Orley Ashenfelter is a classic paper and may be the first wine economics publication ever. Ashenfelter shows how weather influences the quality and the price of Bordeaux Grands Crus wine. Since the weather condition of the year when the grapes were grown is known, an econometric analysis may be constructed. It turns out this model outperforms expert opinion, i.e., critical vintage scores. At best, expert opinion reflects public information. The subsequent papers, by Ashenfelter and Storchmann, Gergaud and Ginsburgh, and Cross, Plantinga and Stavins, tackle the terroir question. That is, they examine the relevance of a vineyard''s physical characteristics for wine quality and prices, but from various dimensions and with different results. Next, Alston et al. analyze a question of great concern in the California wine industry: the causes and consequences of the rising alcohol content in California wine. Is climate change the culprit?The next chapter presents three papers that apply hedonic price analyses to fine wine. Combris, Lecocq and Visser show that Bordeaux wine market prices are essentially determined by the wines'' objective characteristics. Costanigro, McCluskey and Mittelhammer differentiate their hedonic analysis for various market segments. Ali and Nauges incorporate reputational variables into their pricing model and distinguish between short- and long-run price effects.The next section of this volume deals with one of the unique characteristics of wine — its long storage life, which makes it potentially an investment asset. Studying wine''s increasing role as an alternative asset class, Sanning et al., Burton and Jacobsen, Masset and Weisskopf, Masset and Henderson, and Fogarty all examine the rate of return to holding wine as well as the related risks. Since these papers analyze different wines and different time periods there is no ''one message.'' However, all point out that, while wine may diversify an investor''s portfolio, wine''s returns do not beat common stock in the long run.The last two chapters examine the role of wine experts. First, Ashenfelter and Quandt revisit the 1976 ''Judgment of Paris'' and show that aggregating the assessments of several judges should go beyond ''adding points.'' Depending on the method employed, the results may vary, and some measure of statistical precision is essential for interpreting the reliability of the results. In two different papers, Cicchetti and Quandt respond to the necessity to provide statistical tools for the assessment of wine tastings.In a seminal paper, Hodgson reports a remarkable field experiment in which similar wines were placed before judges at a major competition. The results have the shocking implication that how medals are awarded at a major California wine fair is not far from being random. Ashton analyzes the performance of professional wine judges and finds little support for the idea that experienced wine judges should be regarded as experts.Do experts scores influence the price of wine? The answer to this question is less obvious then commonly thought since expert opinion oftentimes only repeats public information such as wine quality that results from the weather that produced the wine grapes. Hadj Ali, Lecocq, and Visser as well as Dubois and Nauges find that high critical scores exert only small effects on wine prices. However, Roberts and Reagans show that a high critical exposure reduces the price-quality dispersion of wineries.Lecocq and Visser analyze wine prices and find that ''characteristics that are directly revealed to the consumer upon inspection of the bottle and its label explain the major part of price differences.'' Expert opinion and sensory variables appear to play only a minor role. In an experimental setting using two Vickrey auctions, Combris, Lange and Issanchou confirm the leading role of public information, i.e., the label remains a key determinant for champagne prices. In a provocative and widely discussed study drawing on blind tasting results of some 5,000 wines, Goldstein and collaborators find that most consumers prefer less expensive over expensive wine.Finally, Weil examines the value of expert wine descriptions and lets several hundred subjects match the wines and their descriptors. His results suggest that the ability to assign a certain description to the matching wine is more or less random.Volume 2 covers the topics reputation, regulation, auctions, and market organizational. Landon and Smith, Anderson and Schamel, and Schamel analyze the impact of current quality and reputation (i.e., past quality) on wine prices from different regions. Their results suggest that prices are more influenced by reputation than by current quality. Costanigro, McCluskey and Goemans develop a nested framework for jointly examining the effects of product, firm and collective reputation on market prices.The following four papers deal with regulatory issues in the US as well as in Europe. While Riekoff and Sykuta shed light on the politics and economics of the three-tier system of alcohol distribution and the prohibition of direct wine shipments in the US, Deconinck and Swinnen analyze the European planting rights system. The political economy of European wine regulation is then covered by Melonie and Swinnen, before Anderson and Jensen shed light on Europe''s complex system of wine industry subsidies.The next chapter is devoted to wine auctions. In three different papers, Fevrier, Roos and Visser, Ashenfelter, and Ginsburgh analyze the effects of specific auction designs on the resulting hammer prices. The papers focus on multi-unit ascending auctions, absentee bidders, and declining price anomalies.The last chapter, supply and organization, is devoted to a wide range of issues. First, Heien illuminates the price formation process in the California winegrape industry. Then, Frick analyzes if and how the separation of ownership and control affects the performance of German wineries.Vink, Kleynhans and Willem Hoffmann introduce us to various models of wine barrel financing, particularly to the Vincorp model employed in South Africa. Galbreath analyzes the role of women in the wine industry. He finds that (1) women are underrepresented and (2) that the presence of a female CEO increases the likelihood of women in winemaker, viticulturist, and marketing roles in that firm. Gokcekus, Hewstone, and Cakal draw on crowdsourced wine evaluations, i.e., Wine Tracker data, and show that private wine assessments are largely influenced by peer scores lending support to the assumption of the presence of a strong herding effect.Mahenc refers to the classic model of information asymmetries and develops a theoretical model highlighting the role of informed buyers in markets that are susceptible to the lemons problem. Lastly, in their paper ''Love or Money?'' Scott, Morton and Podolny analyze how the presence of hobby winemakers may distort market outcomes. Hobby winemakers produce higher quality wines, charge higher prices, and enjoy lower financial returns than professional for-profit winemakers. As a result, profit-oriented winemakers are discouraged from locating at the high-quality end of the market.

This guidebook presents historical and new material to assist the reader to understand NFL game strategies and provides a winning betting strategy. The authors, William Ziemba and Leonard MacLean are professors, traders, financial analysts and sports enthusiasts. They covered ideas like the game''s strategies, and shared their wealth of personal experience analyzing the regular season, the playoffs and the Super Bowls in the years 2010-2017. The results of their actual betting for the 2009-10 to the 2017-18 seasons are provided. The authors concluded the book with a forecast for the 2018-2019 season. They determine the players most valuable to win the games, discuss crucial decisions and provide prediction methodology. The authors concluded with a forecast of the top teams, players and odds to win the 53rd Super Bowl.

Exotic Betting at the Racetrack is unique as it covers the efficient-inefficient strategy to price and find profitable racetrack bets, along with handicapping that provides actual bets made by the author on essentially all of the major wagers offered at US racetracks. The book starts with efficiency, accuracy of the win odds, arbitrage, and optimal betting strategies. Examples and actual bets are shown for various wagers including win, place and show, exacta, quinella, double, trifecta, superfecta, Pick 3, 4 and 6 and rainbow pick 5 and 6. There are discussions of major races including the Breeders'' Cup, Pegasus, Dubai World Cup and the US Triple Crown from 2012-2018. Dosage analysis is also described and used. An additional feature concerns great horses such as the great mares Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Treve, Beholder and Song Bird. There is a discussion of horse ownership and a tour through arguably the world''s top trainer Frederico Tesio and his stables and horses in Italy.Related Link(s)

This book discusses calendar or seasonal anomalies in worldwide equity markets as well as arbitrage and risk arbitrage. A complete update of US anomalies such as the January turn-of-the year, turn-of-the-month, January barometer, sell in May and go away, holidays, days of the week, options expiry and other effects is given concentrating on the futures markets where these anomalies can be easily applied. Other effects that lend themselves to modified buy and hold cash strategies include the presidential election and factor models based on fundamental anomalies. The ideas have been used successfully by the author in personal and managed accounts and hedge funds.

This book shows the breadth and depth of stochastic programming applications. All the papers presented here involve optimization over the scenarios that represent possible future outcomes of the uncertainty problems. The applications, which were presented at the 12th International Conference on Stochastic Programming held in Halifax, Nova Scotia in August 2010, span the rich field of uses of these models. The finance papers discuss such diverse problems as longevity risk management of individual investors, personal financial planning, intertemporal surplus management, asset management with benchmarks, dynamic portfolio management, fixed income immunization and racetrack betting. The production and logistics papers discuss natural gas infrastructure design, farming Atlantic salmon, prevention of nuclear smuggling and sawmill planning. The energy papers involve electricity production planning, hydroelectric reservoir operations and power generation planning for liquid natural gas plants. Finally, two telecommunication papers discuss mobile network design and frequency assignment problems.

This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2nd edition published in 2006).

A reprint of one of the classic volumes on racetrack efficiency, this book is the only one in its field that deals with the racetrack betting market in-depth, containing all the important historical papers on racetrack efficiency. As evidenced by the collection of articles, the understanding of racetrack betting is clearly drawn from, and has correspondingly returned something to, all the fields of psychology, economics, finance, statistics, mathematics and management science.

A reprint of one of the classic volumes on portfolio theory and investment, this book has been used by the leading professors at universities such as Stanford, Berkeley, and Carnegie-Mellon. It contains five parts, each with a review of the literature and about 150 pages of computational and review exercises and further in-depth, challenging problems.Frequently referenced and highly usable, the material remains as fresh and relevant for a portfolio theory course as ever.

This book discusses many key topics in investment and risk management, the global economic situation and the shift in global investment strategies. It was largely written during the period of 2007-12, one of the most tumultuous times in global financial markets which called into question not only tenets of economic forecasting and also asset allocation and return strategies. It contains studies of how investors lose money in derivative markets, examples of those who did not and how these disasters could have been prevented. The authors draw some conclusions on the impact of the structural shifts currently underway in the global economy as well as how cyclical trends will affect these industries, the globe and key sectors. The authors zoom in on key growth areas, including emerging markets, their interlinkages and financial trends.The book also covers risk arbitrage and mean reversion strategies in financial and sports betting markets, plus incentives, volatility aspects, risk taking and investments strategies used by hedge funds and university endowments. Topics such as stock market crash predictions, asset liability planning models, various players in financial markets and the evaluation of the greatest investors are also discussed.The book presents tools and case studies of real applications for analyzing a wide variety of investment returns and better assessing the risks which many investors have preferred to ignore in the search of returns. Many security market regularities or anomalies are discussed including political party and January effects as is the process of building scenarios and using Kelly and fractional Kelly strategies to optimize returns.