Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute – förlag

Without extensive intelligence systems, neither Myanmar's kings nor the later British colonial administration could have maintained their dominance over the country's diverse and fractious society. The collection of political and strategic intelligence was critical to their survival. After Myanmar regained its independence in 1948, a powerful military intelligence organization became key to the durability of the central government, including the junta created after the 2021 coup. Yet, intelligence has long been the "e;missing dimension"e; of Myanmar's published history. To understand the internal dynamics and external relations of this deeply troubled country it needs to be paid much more attention. This study, by an Old Myanmar Hand and former intelligence analyst, draws on a wide range of sources to provide a comprehensive picture of the structure, operations and impact of Myanmar's intelligence apparatus, from the nineteenth century to the present day. In doing so, it makes a unique contribution both to the field of intelligence studies and to our understanding of modern Myanmar.

Southeast Asian Affairs, produced since 1974, is an annual review of significant trends and developments in the region. The emphasis is on ASEAN countries but important developments in the broader Asia-Pacific region are not ignored. The publication seeks to provide readable and easily understood analyses of major political, strategic, economic and social developments within the region.

At the midpoint of the Marcos Jr. presidency, questions about the direction of Philippine governance have taken on new urgency. Coming to power in the wake of a violent populist regime, the administration faces heightened expectations: How will it distinguish itself from its predecessor? What major political, economic and social developments have unfolded so far? Why has policy progress emerged in some areas but stalled in others-and how effective are the new approaches being pursued? And how will the administration manage its own factional splits and internal infighting?This edited volume provides a timely and comprehensive assessment of the Marcos Jr. administration at midterm. Bringing together eighteen chapters by leading scholars and practitioners, it examines the administration's performance, priorities and evolving governance style across five thematic parts: Governing at Midterm; Contested Narratives; Oligarchic Continuities; Challenges in Development and Delivery: Infrastructure and Agriculture; and Emergent Areas of Governance.While the administration has maintained several practices from the Duterte period, it has also marked out new directions. Taken together, the contributions reveal a complex and at times contradictory governance landscape-one in which entrenched oligarchic interests, political survival and shifting domestic and geopolitical pressures intersect.Offering clear-eyed analysis and forward-looking insights, this volume equips scholars, students, policymakers and observers with an essential guide to understanding the political and policy landscape of the Philippines under Marcos Jr. It also identifies critical areas for reform to address democratic fragility, uneven development and polarization.

The United States began imposing tariffs in February 2025, resulting in a clear 19 per cent reciprocal tariff rate for Thailand by August. In return, Thailand is obligated to eliminate tariffs on 99 per cent of US products imported into the country. The US tariff will raise prices for Thai goods, consequently reducing US demand for them. But Thailand's zero tariff will have two-pronged effects. On the one hand, it will put pressure on Thai farmers and some local producers. On the other, it will lower costs for Thai manufacturers who use US raw materials, potentially boosting their cost competitiveness. The tariffs imposed by the United States on other countries could partly offset the negative effects on Thailand and create opportunities for Thai exporters to expand their market share, particularly where competitors face higher tariff barriers. Global competition will intensify as most countries seek non-US markets to offset lost sales. Crucially, the US-China conflict diverts cheap, high-volume Chinese goods into Thailand, harming local manufacturers and creating a severe transshipment risk that could lead to an additional 40 per cent tariff on Thai exports. Thailand needs a comprehensive strategy to address its trade challenges. Such a strategy should aim to achieve the following: provide urgent relief for firms directly affected by tariffs; implement measures to manage the influx of Chinese goods and the problem of transshipment; and establish a long-term plan to boost the competitiveness of Thai entrepreneurs in the face of fierce global trade pressure.

Stablecoins have generated significant enthusiasm through offering instant settlement, low costs and the promise of launching the "Web3" era. But they also present significant risks from illicit finance and financial and monetary instability. To navigate between policies promoting stablecoin adoption and enacting strict regulations to mitigate their risks, it is imperative to evaluate the utility of actual stablecoin use cases in Southeast Asia. None of the major stablecoin use cases analysed in this paper-trading and speculation, payments, and participating in the crypto ecosystem-provide a compelling justification for their widespread, unchecked adoption. Moreover, more attractive, regulatory-compliant alternatives exist, such as the QR-enabled instant payment systems widely adopted across Southeast Asia. Given the limited productive use cases for stablecoins in the region, policymakers should err on the side of caution. Cautious stablecoin regulation could entail enacting strict rules pertaining to foreign issued stablecoins or limiting their adoption to parties with demonstrated productive utility from their use, such as professional investors. To counteract the attractiveness of stablecoins for illicit finance, policymakers should consider mandating that stablecoin transactions occur only between identity-verified accounts. This controlled adoption model is already validated by the rapid growth of the most successful tokenized real-world assets, which operate under strict regulatory compliance. Ultimately, proper regulation of stablecoins is not a ceiling on blockchain innovation, but the necessary foundation for its useful and sustainable growth.