Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling – serie

This book details the preparation of USAGE-TERM, a computable general equilibrium model that provides regional economic detail in the USA. The model can represent either congressional district or state level economic activity. The latter may include a top-down representation of county activity. Interest in USAGE-TERM is growing among government departments. It is a practical tool, which may enhance analysis of productivity growth and innovation, adverse events such as drought or civil disruption and the dynamic economic impacts of major projects.Economic analysts and policy makers care about regions. Some regions suffer growing pains, as supporting infrastructure and services struggle to cope with population growth. Soaring house prices and rentals may lower affordability for many. Other regions suffer ongoing decline due to structural change. Regional economic fluctuations are often far more dramatic than national fluctuations.

This book details the preparation of USAGE-TERM, a computable general equilibrium model that provides regional economic detail in the USA. The model can represent either congressional district or state level economic activity. The latter may include a top-down representation of county activity. Interest in USAGE-TERM is growing among government departments. It is a practical tool, which may enhance analysis of productivity growth and innovation, adverse events such as drought or civil disruption and the dynamic economic impacts of major projects.Economic analysts and policy makers care about regions. Some regions suffer growing pains, as supporting infrastructure and services struggle to cope with population growth. Soaring house prices and rentals may lower affordability for many. Other regions suffer ongoing decline due to structural change. Regional economic fluctuations are often far more dramatic than national fluctuations.

This book is for people who want to understand modern trade theory, particularly the Melitz model. It lays out Melitz theory from first principles and relates it to earlier theories of Armington and Krugman. For trade theory specialists, the book produces some significant conclusions. It identifies conditions under which Krugman and Melitz models produce essentially the same results for the welfare effects of trade liberalization as those obtained from Armington, and conditions under which this is not true. These findings will be of interest to academics and policy advisors who need to understand critiques of Armington by proponents of Krugman and Melitz.For computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelers, the book shows how Melitz-style CGE models can be calibrated, solved and interpreted. A major practical contribution of the book is to show how large-scale Armington models such as GTAP can be converted to Melitz by the addition of a small number of equations and minimal alteration of the original Armington model.The book describes computational experience in solving Melitz CGE models using GEMPACK software. This experience will be of interest to researchers currently attempting to solve Melitz-based CGE models. Almost all previous Melitz studies have used GAMS software.  Authors of these studies have reported computational difficulties. These difficulties did not occur in this book’s GEMPACK-based computations. The book concludes that: (a) CGE modelers can embrace Melitz while retaining their Armington-based models as powerful interpretive devices; and (b) via GEMPACK, large-scale CGE models incorporating Melitz specifications can be solved with no more difficulty than similar-dimensioned Armington models.

This book is for people who want to understand modern trade theory, particularly the Melitz model. It lays out Melitz theory from first principles and relates it to earlier theories of Armington and Krugman. For trade theory specialists, the book produces some significant conclusions. It identifies conditions under which Krugman and Melitz models produce essentially the same results for the welfare effects of trade liberalization as those obtained from Armington, and conditions under which this is not true. These findings will be of interest to academics and policy advisors who need to understand critiques of Armington by proponents of Krugman and Melitz.For computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelers, the book shows how Melitz-style CGE models can be calibrated, solved and interpreted. A major practical contribution of the book is to show how large-scale Armington models such as GTAP can be converted to Melitz by the addition of a small number of equations and minimal alteration of the original Armington model.The book describes computational experience in solving Melitz CGE models using GEMPACK software. This experience will be of interest to researchers currently attempting to solve Melitz-based CGE models. Almost all previous Melitz studies have used GAMS software.  Authors of these studies have reported computational difficulties. These difficulties did not occur in this book’s GEMPACK-based computations. The book concludes that: (a) CGE modelers can embrace Melitz while retaining their Armington-based models as powerful interpretive devices; and (b) via GEMPACK, large-scale CGE models incorporating Melitz specifications can be solved with no more difficulty than similar-dimensioned Armington models.

This book deals with the economic modelling of water at the global, national and sub-national levels. It presents a multi-faceted analysis and, while it outlines the theories behind various models, its main purpose is to analyse policy issues and present insights arising from modelling, including a chapter analysing the macroeconomic implications of climate change.  Arguably the most compelling reason for publishing a book on the economic modelling of water arises from the fact that agriculture accounts for approximately 70% of water used for economic purposes, while only contributing 4% of global income. Given that water is an essential commodity, this discrepancy may in part be symptomatic of an undervaluation of water due to immature and incomplete markets. In turn, this undervaluation has led to an ongoing misallocation of water. When economic models include water accounts that feed into production functions, they model impacts on the marginal product of water. Policies that improve the link between the marginal product and price of water will improve water allocation, while advanced economic models such as those presented here can enhance our ability to explore the possible impacts of improved policy.

This book contains detailed documentation of the CHINAGEM model - a large-scale dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China and its applications. Specifically, this book documents the theory and database behind the CHINAGEM model. This book explores the closure development for the four simulation modes of the model including historical, decomposition, forecast and policy simulations, the detailed explanation of how to analyze simulation results, and the extensions of CHINAGEM and their applications. These extensions include several innovative modules and case studies as examples of the application of CHINAGEM. This book provides an entry point for CGE modellers to develop their analytical skills. This book can also be used as a platform for research institutes to develop CGE models suitable for their research portfolio. The module developments included in this book are designed to capture the specific features of the Chinese economy. The applications of these modules chosen in the book cover hot policy issues in China, and the simulation results have valuable policy implications. This book identifies that the CHINAGEM model itself and all the extensions can be used for analysing many new topics and policy issues such as the effects of the USA–China trade war, the effects of Made in China 2025 Plan as well as China’s commitment to the carbon neutrality before 2060 and its economic implications.