Huebner International Series on Risk, Insurance and Economic Security – serie

Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk is the first book that systematically analyzes how catastrophe models can be used for assessing and managing risks of extreme events. It focuses on natural disaster risk, but also discusses the management of terrorism risk. A unique feature of this book is the involvement of three leading catastrophe modeling firms, AIR Worldwide, EQECAT, and Risk Management Solutions, who examine the role of catastrophe modeling in rate setting, portfolio management and risk financing. Using data from three model cities (Oakland, CA, Long Beach, CA and Miami/Dade County, FLA), experts from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania examine the role of catastrophe modeling to develop risk management strategies for reducing and spreading the losses from future disasters. Given the uncertainties associated with terrorism the book points out the opportunities for utilizing catastrophe models to set insurance rates and to examine public-private partnerships for providing financial assistance in the event of a terrorist attack."This book fills a critical need in setting forth the role of modern risk analysis in managing catastrophe risk. There is no comparable reference work for this important subject area. The book is well written and well organized. It contains contributions from many of the most distinguished experts in the fields of risk analysis and risk management. It strikes a good balance between the technical aspects of the subject and the practical aspects of decision making.""This book is strongly recommended for individuals who must make decisions regarding the management of impacts of catastrophe risks including those in both the public and private sector."Wilfred D. IwanProfessor of Applied Mechanics, EmeritusDirector, Earthquake Engineering Research LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of Technology"The authors have captured the essence of catastrophe modeling: its value, its utility and its limitations. Every practitioner in the catastrophe risk field should read this book."Franklin W. Nutter, PresidentReinsurance Association of America

Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk is the first book that systematically analyzes how catastrophe models can be used for assessing and managing risks of extreme events. It focuses on natural disaster risk, but also discusses the management of terrorism risk. A unique feature of this book is the involvement of three leading catastrophe modeling firms, AIR Worldwide, EQECAT, and Risk Management Solutions, who examine the role of catastrophe modeling in rate setting, portfolio management and risk financing. Using data from three model cities (Oakland, CA, Long Beach, CA and Miami/Dade County, FLA), experts from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania examine the role of catastrophe modeling to develop risk management strategies for reducing and spreading the losses from future disasters. Given the uncertainties associated with terrorism the book points out the opportunities for utilizing catastrophe models to set insurance rates and to examine public-private partnerships for providing financial assistance in the event of a terrorist attack."This book fills a critical need in setting forth the role of modern risk analysis in managing catastrophe risk. There is no comparable reference work for this important subject area. The book is well written and well organized. It contains contributions from many of the most distinguished experts in the fields of risk analysis and risk management. It strikes a good balance between the technical aspects of the subject and the practical aspects of decision making.""This book is strongly recommended for individuals who must make decisions regarding the management of impacts of catastrophe risks including those in both the public and private sector."Wilfred D. IwanProfessor of Applied Mechanics, EmeritusDirector, Earthquake Engineering Research LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of Technology"The authors have captured the essence of catastrophe modeling: its value, its utility and its limitations. Every practitioner in the catastrophe risk field should read this book."Franklin W. Nutter, PresidentReinsurance Association of America

Insurance and financial markets have been radically and deeply changed in the last 20 years. Deregulation, internationalization of insurance and financial institutions, increasing competition, electronic commerce, bancassurance, and the emergence of new risks are among the challenges faced by insurers and other financial firms. These developing trends pose both global and local challenges for financial firms participating in insurance markets. "The Handbook of International Insurance: Between Global Dynamics and Local Contingencies" increases understanding of insurance markets by adopting an international comparative approach. Leading scholars and practitioners worldwide provide detailed information on market trends, regulation, taxation, and economic developments for thirteen specific countries in Europe, the Americas, and Asia. Each country chapter covers key aspects of insurance: life insurance, non-life insurance, and public and private social insurance programs. The book also includes comprehensive chapters on reinsurance, Lloyd’s of London, alternative risk transfer, South and East Asian insurance markets, and European insurance markets. Setting the stage is an overview chapter by the editors focusing on overall conclusions on globalization. A unique source of information on the evolution of insurance markets worldwide, this book provides valuable perspectives for scholars, practitioners, and policy makers.

In recent years, choice no-fault has emerged as a popular but controversial proposal for addressing the problem of high automobile insurance rates. Choice plans offer consumers the option of a lower-cost insurance policy with restrictions on filing lawsuits or a higher-cost policy with full tort rights. Some American states have implemented choice programmes, and major federal choice legislation is now pending in the United States Congress. Choice no-fault has caught the attention of policy makers, the insurance industry, and academics. This book pulls together the available research on the topic and is edited by scholars from different disciplines, each of whom has written extensively on automobile insurance issues.

The experience of privatization of social security has been predominantly in the Latin American region. Eight countries have undertaken either full or partial privatization of pensions: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. What did the policymakers expect? Were expectations realized? Can we learn anything from the collective experience of these countries? Can they be applied to other countries that are aspiring to privatize? How did the World Bank and other international institutions affect these policies? This text analyzes in detail these questions. The book begins with a detailed account of economic conditions in Latin America. It then discusses various models that policymakers rely on. Starting with a purely demographic model, it lays out advanced models of overlapping generations of Samuelson. The book gives extensive details of privatized pensions in each of the eight reforming countries. Two chapters are devoted to analyzing the reform in each country. Finally, detailed lessons are drawn that aim to help shape the debate for policymakers in other countries.

In the 1970's, the research agenda in insurance was dominated by optimal insurance coverage, security design, and equilibrium under conditions of imperfect information. The 1980's saw a growth of theoretical developments including non-expected utility, price volatility, retention capacity, the pricing and design of insurance contracts in the presence of multiple risks, and the liability insurance crisis. The empirical study of information problems, financial derivatives, and large losses due to catastrophic events dominated the research agenda in the 1990's.The Handbook of Insurance provides a single reference source on insurance for professors, researchers, graduate students, regulators, consultants, and practitioners, that reviews the research developments in insurance and its related fields that have occurred over the last thirty years. The book starts with the history and foundations of insurance theory and moves on to review asymmetric information, risk management and insurance pricing, and the industrial organization of insurance markets. The book ends with life insurance, pensions, and economic security.Each chapter has been written by a leading authority in insurance, all contributions have been peer reviewed, and each chapter can be read independently of the others.

Motor vehicle accidents are still a leading cause of death, even if the trend has somewhat declined over the past 20 years. The assessment of driving risks is a common concern for road transportation safety and the automobile insurance industry. This text is for people concerned about road crashes (prevention and compensation) and about the insurance problems they pose; namely private and public institutional authorities, consultants, administrators, practitioners, and researchers. The book presents contributions related to motor vehicle insurance and road safety. All papers have been evaluated by external referees. Four subjects are covered: automobile insurance pricing, risks and asymmetric information; insurance fraud; licensing policies, evaluation and risks with young drivers; and insurance regulation.

All property and casualty insurers are required to carry out loss reserving as a statutory accounting function. Thus, loss reserving is an essential sphere of activity, and one with its own specialized body of knowledge. While few books have been devoted to the topic, the amount of published research literature on loss reserving has almost doubled in size during the last fifteen years. Greg Taylor's book aims to provide a comprehensive, state-of-the-art treatment of loss reserving that reflects contemporary research advances to date. Divided into two parts, the book covers both the conventional techniques widely used in practice, and more specialized loss reserving techniques employing stochastic models. Part I, Deterministic Models, covers very practical issues through the abundant use of numerical examples that fully develop the techniques under consideration. Part II, Stochastic Models, begins with a chapter that sets up the additional theoretical material needed to illustrate stochastic modeling. The remaining chapters in Part II are self-contained, and thus can be approached independently of each other. A special feature of the book is the use throughout of a single real life data set to illustrate the numerical examples and new techniques presented. The data set illustrates most of the difficult situations presented in actuarial practice. This book will meet the needs for a reference work as well as for a textbook on loss reserving.

The First International Conference on Insurance Solvency was held at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania from June 18th through June 20th, 1986. The conference was the inaugural event for Wharton's Center for Research on Risk and Insurance. In atten­ dance were thirty-nine representatives from Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The papers presented at the Conference are published in two volumes, this book and a companion volume, Classical Insurance Solvency Theory, J. D. Cummins and R. A. Derrig, eds. (Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1988). The first volume presented two papers reflecting important advances in actuarial solvency theory. The current volume goes beyond the actuarial approach to encom­ pass papers applying the insights and techniques of financial economics. The papers fall into two groups. The first group con­ sists of papers that adopt an essentially actuarial or statistical ap­ proach to solvency modelling. These papers represent methodology advances over prior efforts at operational modelling of insurance companies. The emphasis is on cash flow analysis and many of the models incorporate investment income, inflation, taxation, and other economic variables. The papers in second group bring financial economics to bear on various aspects of solvency analysis. These papers discuss insurance applications of asset pricing models, capital structure theory, and the economic theory of agency.

Workers' compensation insurance presents a set of institutional charac­ teristics that are unique. For every other form of insurance, both the insurer and the coverage provided under the policy are completely controlled either by the federal or a state government, or by an arrangement between the insured and a property-casualty insurer. Unemployment insurance, Social Security, and bank-deposit insurance are examples for which a legis­ lative body sets the benefits. and a government agency prescribes the in­ surance premium. By contrast, the coverage and premiums for automobile, homeowners, and fire insurance are individual contractual arrangements between a policyholder and one of the more than 1800 U. S. property­ casualty insurance companies. Workers' compensation insurance, however, is a hybrid in which state legislatures stipulate the terms of coverage, while regulated competition is the major determinant of prices. State legislatures enact statutes that prescribe the replacement rate and duration of indemnity benefits, as well as full reimbursement of medical expenses. And although the manual rates for workers' compensation insurance continue to be administered by a prior approval process in most states, the competitive-market price for coverage is achieved through a variety of price-modification plans (Appel and Borba, 1988).

Until a few years ago I concentrated my attention on workers' compensa­ tion programs in the United States and Canada. Because the United States has 52 programs and Canada has eight, I was exposed to a diversity of approaches that caused me to believe that few other approaches existed. Since 1984 I have become more aware of what the rest of the world has been doing and discovered that my knowledge needed to be broadened significantly. The trigger action was a 1984 faculty research exchange agreement between Keio University in Tokyo and the University of Minnesota that made it possible for me to spend much of my time studying Japan's workers' compensation program and comparing it with the United States approaches. Japan's program had several features that I had not encountered in the United States or Canada. After this experience I attached considerably more value to and spent more time studying the Social Security Administration's biennial reports on Social Security Pro­ grams Throughout The World, which include workers' compensation programs. I also presented papers at two meetings of the International Insurance Society based on my Japanese and Social Security Adminis­ tration report research. Many participants urged further study in this area and offered to send me materials describing their nations' programs. The result is this study which I hope that readers will find interesting and worthwhile.

Two different applications have been considered, automobile claims from Massachusetts and health expenses from the Netherlands. We have fit 11 different distributions to these data. The distributions are conveniently nested within a single four parameter distribution, the generalized beta of the second type. This relationship facilitates analysis and comparisons. In both cases the GB2 provided the best fit and the Burr 3 is the best three parameter model. In the case of automobile claims, the flexibility of the GB2 provides a statistically siE;nificant improvement in fit over all other models. In the case of Dutch health expenses the improvement of the GB2 relative to several alternatives was not statistically significant. * The author appreciates the research assistance of Mark Bean, Young Yong Kim and Steve White. The data used were provided by Richard Derrig of The Massachusetts Automobile Rating and Accident Prevention Bureau and by Bob Van der Laan and The Silver Cross Foundation for the medical insurance claim data. 2~ REFERENCES Arnold, B. C. 1983. Pareto Distributions. Bartonsville: International Cooperative Publishing House. Cummins, J. D. and L. R. Freifelder. 1978. A comparative analysis of alternative maximum probable yearly aggregate loss estimators. Journal of Risk and Insurance 45:27-52. *Cummins, J. D., G. Dionne, and L. Maistre. 1987. Application of the GB2 family of distributions in collective risk theory. University of Pennsylvania: Mimeographed manuscript. Hogg, R. V. and S. A. Klugman. 1983. On the estimation of long tailed skewed distributions with actuarial applications.

The articles in this volume were first presented at the Seventh and Eighth Conferences on Economic Issues in Workers' Compensation sponsored by the National Council on Compensation Insurance. A principal objective of the Conference series has been for workers' compensation insurance researchers to apply state-of-the-art research methodologies to policy questions of interest to the workers' compensation insurance community. This community is a rather diverse group--it includes employers, insurers, injured workers, regulators, and legislators, as well as those who service or represent these groups (e.g., physicians, rehabilitation specialists, labor unions). Despite this diversity and the variety of agendas, the Conference series continues to address many important policy questions. Readers familiar with the Conference series and the four previously published volumes should notice an evolution in terms of the topics addressed in this volume. In the earlier conferences, the topics were more often concerned with the underlying causes of the tremendous increase in workers' compensation benefit payments. In the present volume, h- ever, only four of the fourteen chapters directly concern workers' c- pensation insurance benefits, while the other ten concern the pricing of workers compensation insurance. This is not to suggest that workers' compensation cost increases have abated. In 1989, workers' compensation incurred losses exceeded $45 billion to continue the annual double-digit cost increases. Two explanations can be offered for the somewhat altered focus of this volume. First, despite the continued increase in prices, the financial results for the workers' compensation insurance line continue to be poor.

For a number of years, I have been teaching and doing research in the economics of uncertainty, information, and insurance. Although it is now possible to find textbooks and books of essays on uncertainty and in­ formation in economics and finance for graduate students and researchers, there is no equivalent material that covers advanced research in insurance. The purpose of this book is to fill this gap in literature. It provides original surveys and essays in the field of insurance economics. The contributions offer basic reference, new material, and teaching supple­ ments to graduate students and researchers in economics, finance, and insurance. It represents a complement to the book of readings entitled Foundations of Insurance Economics - Readings in Economics and Finance, recently published by the S.S. Huebner Foundation of Insurance Education. In that book, the editors (G. Dionne and S. Harrington) disseminate key papers in the literature and publish an original survey of major contributions in the field.

Economic and financial research on insurance markets has undergone dramatic growth since its infancy in the early 1960s. Our main objective in compiling this volume was to achieve a wider dissemination of key papers in this literature. Their significance is highlighted in the introduction, which surveys major areas in insurance economics. While it was not possible to provide comprehensive coverage of insurance economics in this book, these readings provide an essential foundation to those who desire to conduct research and teach in the field. In particular, we hope that this compilation and our introduction will be useful to graduate students and to researchers in economics, finance, and insurance. Our criteria for selecting articles included significance, representativeness, pedagogical value, and our desire to include theoretical and empirical work. While the focus of the applied papers is on property-liability insurance, they illustrate issues, concepts, and methods that are applicable in many areas of insurance. The S. S. Huebner Foundation for Insurance Education at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School made this book possible by financing publication costs. We are grateful for this assistance and to J. David Cummins, Executive Director of the Foundation, for his efforts and helpful advice on the contents. We also wish to thank all of the authors and editors who provided permission to reprint articles and our respective institutions for technical and financial support.

The debate between the proponents of "classical" and "Bayesian" statistica} methods continues unabated. It is not the purpose of the text to resolve those issues but rather to demonstrate that within the realm of actuarial science there are a number of problems that are particularly suited for Bayesian analysis. This has been apparent to actuaries for a long time, but the lack of adequate computing power and appropriate algorithms had led to the use of various approximations. The two greatest advantages to the actuary of the Bayesian approach are that the method is independent of the model and that interval estimates are as easy to obtain as point estimates. The former attribute means that once one learns how to analyze one problem, the solution to similar, but more complex, problems will be no more difficult. The second one takes on added significance as the actuary of today is expected to provide evidence concerning the quality of any estimates. While the examples are all actuarial in nature, the methods discussed are applicable to any structured estimation problem. In particular, statisticians will recognize that the basic credibility problem has the same setting as the random effects model from analysis of variance.

th This book is published to commemorate the 50 Anniversary of the S.S. Huebner Foundation for Insurance Education. Administered at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, the Huebner Foundation was established in 1941 to strengthen insurance education at the collegiate level by increasing the number of professors specializing in insurance and enriching the literature in the field. The financial support of leading life insurance companies has enabled the Foundation to provide post-graduate education for prospective insurance teachers and scholars. Through its fellowship program, the Foundation supports students in the Ph.D. program in Risk and Insurance at the Wharton School. The success of the Foundation is measured by the accomplishments of its alumni. Former Huebner Fellows play leading roles in every major area of insurance education. Fellows teach insurance to tens of thousands of undergraduate and MBA students each year and have written hundreds of books and thousands of articles on insurance. Fellows hold leadership positions at the American College, the Life Office Management Association, and the Certified Employee Benefit Specialist Program. The Foundation was created in honor of Dr. Solomon S. Huebner, a pioneer in insurance education. Dr. Huebner taught the first organized course on the economics of insurance ever offered at the collegiate level in 1904. An internationally recognized author and teacher, Dr. Huebner had a profound impact on both insurance education and the insurance industry. He served on the faculty of the Wharton School for more than nearly fifty years.

Five years ago the world lost one of its most prolific insurance scholars, Dr. Robert I. Mehr. His death in 1988 signalled the passing of not only a gifted writer and researcher, but also a pioneering teacher, mentor, and friend. The essays compiled within this volume are intended as an appropriate tribute to this occasionally outrageous individual who touched the lives of so many within the insurance community. Bob Mehr was a teacher who expected and demanded nothing less than perfect scholarship and flawless, efficient writing. Among alumni of the University of lllinois insurance doctoral program, stories still abound of late night and early morning sessions in which students and professor painstakingly debated precise words and phrases for dissertations, journal articles, and textbooks. Bob's respect for language was both immense and contagious, if at times more than a little compulsive. He joked that he could not read letters or novels without pencil in hand for editing. Bob's respect for his doctoral students was equally evident. The confidence he displayed in his students' abilities was sometimes startling, but "competence assumed" often begot "competence in fact." The accomplishments and records amassed by the many who studied with Bob Mehr are impressive and ongoing. On the dedication page in his final textbook, Fundamentals of Insurance, Bob spoke of his affection for those he called his "academic progeny" and wished them happiness as they build their own academic families.

Most insurers around the world have introduced some form of merit-rating in automobile third party liability insurance. Such systems, penalizing at-fault accidents by premium surcharges and rewarding claim-free years by discounts, are called bonus-malus systems (BMS) in Europe and Asia. With the current deregulation trends that concern most insurance markets around the world, many companies will need to develop their own BMS. The main objective of the book is to provide them models to design BMS that meet their objectives. Part I of the book contains an overall presentation of the pros and cons of merit-rating, a case study and a review of the different probability distributions that can be used to model the number of claims in an automobile portfolio. In Part II, 30 systems from 22 different countries, are evaluated and ranked according to their `toughness' towards policyholders. Four tools are created to evaluate that toughness and provide a tentative classification of all systems. Then, factor analysis is used to aggregate and summarize the data, and provide a final ranking of all systems. Part III is an up-to-date review of all the probability models that have been proposed for the design of an optimal BMS. The application of these models would enable the reader to devise the system that is ideally suited to the behavior of the policyholders of his own insurance company. Finally, Part IV analyses an alternative to BMS; the introduction of a policy with a deductible.

The research project leading to this book was initiated in the fall of 1979 when the American Council of Life Insurance (ACLI) contacted Dan McGill, chairman of the Wharton School Insurance Department, about conducting a study on risk classification in life insurance. The ACLI was concerned about legislative and judicial activity in this area and its potential effects on the life insurance industry. A meeting was held at the ACLI offices in Washington, D.C., between several members of the ACLI staff and Dan McGill and David Cummins representing the Wharton School insurance department. An agreement was reached that a study would be conducted at Wharton dealing with issues in risk classification. Although the staff of the ACLI suggested directions the study might take, it was agreed that the design and execution of the study would be solely under the control of the researchers. The researchers also retained unrestricted publication rights in the results of the study. This agreement has been honored by the ACLI during the course of the project.

The idea for this book came from my decision to update an article by Roy C. McCullough entitled "Insurance Rates in the Courts" published in the June and July 1961 issues of the Insurance Law Journal. When this project began, the intention was to produce a similar journal article surveying insurance rate litiga­ tion between 1960 and the present using basically the same organization followed in the seminal article. However, the volume of reported cases during the last twenty years was much larger than anticipated and the issues being litigated had expanded dramatically. The project grew as my study progressed, and the resulting book surveys more than three hundred disputes involving insurance ratemaking and insurance rate regulation. The fruition of this project would not have been possible without the consistent encouragement and criticism of Roy McCullough, and it is with gratitude that I acknowledge his continuous and valuable assistance to me in this effort. Once an initial draft was prepared, a number of my associates cooperated by reading and commenting on the manuscript. I would like to give special thanks to Michael J. Miller and James F. Perry who unselfishly shared their time and knowledge to improve this work. Needless to say, none of those who read the manuscript is responsible for any errors in concept or detail that may remain.

The Geneva Association and Risk Economics The Geneva Association The Geneva Association (International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics) commenced its activities in June 1973, on the initiative of twenty-two members in eight European countries. It now has fifty-four members in sixteen countries in Europe and in the United States. The members of the association are insurance companies which provide financial support for its activities. The aims and strategy of the Geneva Association were clearly defined in 1971 by the founding committee. They were set forth in the first report to the Assembly of Members in 1974: "To make an original contribution to the progress of insurance by objective studies on the interdependence between economics and insurance." In pursuit of this objective, the Association strives to place insurance problems in the context of the modern economy and to overcome the antagonism between different groups and institutions by showing that they all have a common interest in tackling the problem of risk in a changing world. In consequence, the studies made by the Association had to move away from the subjects familiar to insurance professionals and explore related fields, dealing with opinions and behavior falling outside the profession's vii FOREWORD viii traditional framework of analysis. It is in this direction that the Association's preoccupations have been directed from the beginning, towards areas in which insurance activities come into contact with those of other economic sectors such as government, banking, manufacturing, and households.

The mathematical theory of non-life insurance developed much later than the theory of life insurance. The problems that occur in the former field are far more intricate for several reasons: 1. In the field oflife insurance, the company usually has to pay a claim on the policy only once: the insured dies or the policy matures only once. It is with only a few particular types of policy (for instance, sickness insurance, when the insured starts working again after a period of sickness) that a valid claim can be made on a number of different occasions. On the other hand, the general rule in non-life insurance is that the policyholder is liable to be the victim of several losses (in automobile insurance, of course, but also in burglary and fire insurance, householders' comprehensive insurance, and so on). 2. In the field of life insurance, the amount to be paid by the company­ excluding any bonuses-is determined at the inception of the policy. For the various types of life insurance contracts, the sum payable on death or at maturity of the policy is known in advance. In the field of non-life insurance, the amount of a loss is a random variable: the cost of an automobile crash, the partial or totalloss of a building as a result of fire, the number and nature of injuries, and so forth.

Statistics published by the U. S. Department of Commerce (1980) indicate that in 1977 we spent 8. 1% of our gross national product (GNP) on life, health, property-casualty, and other forms of insurance. An additional 5. 7% was used to pay the Social Security tax, which is another form of insurance premium, for a total of 14. 8% of the GNP. \ Although insurance had its historical origin in marine insurance, it has now developed into one of the major industries of the American economy and extends into many areas of economic activity. One area where growth has been particularly strong is the medical sector. Health insurance is a major institution in all industrialized countries. It became a government responsibility in 1883 when Bismarck intro­ duced a compulsory program of health insurance for industrial workers in Germany. Programs for workers in various industrial and income categories soon followed in other European countries-Austria (1888), Hungary (1891), Norway (1909), Servia (1910), Great Britain (1911), and Russia and Romania (1912) (Rubinow, 1913:250). Programs in these countries were extended in subsequent years, and other countries in Europe followed with their own programs. Consequently, today most industrial countries have universal or near-universal health insurance coverage. In the United States the issue of national health insurance has been seriously debated since just prior to World War I, and polling data since the 1930s show that a substantial majority of the public has been supportive of such a program (Erskine, 1975).

The problem of solvency is, in fact, as old as insurance. The history of the industry knows many ways to meet the risks involved with underwriting, such as spreading the risk portfolio (Cato, Senior already applied it), risk selection, reserve funds, reinsurance, etc. Whilst these measures too often proved ineffective, the establish­ ment of legislative control and public supervision ensued. However, not until the last few decades has the solvency issue become an ob­ ject of intensive studies, very much thanks to the progress of related empirical and theoretical knowledge, and in the under­ standing of the concerned complicated processes. The research activities have grown extensively in many countries in recent years. The more the studies advance the more new relevant aspects are detected and a great variety of alternative proposals have come up for discussion. Therefore, it has become necessary to attempt a survey of the whole problem area in order to be able to place the quite numerous pieces of knowledge in their proper context, and also, among other things, to avoid the pitfalls of handling isolated problems omitting vital tie-ins to the environment. Many of the rele­ vant problems and subproblems are still lacking adequate and well tested solutions. Therefore, a survey of the whole problem area can also hopefully serve as guidance for future research efforts.

In recent years, choice no-fault has emerged as a popular but controversial proposal for addressing the problem of high automobile insurance rates. Choice plans offer consumers the option of a lower-cost insurance policy with restrictions on filing lawsuits or a higher-cost policy with full tort rights. Some American states have implemented choice programs, and major federal choice legislation is now pending in the United States Congress.Choice no-fault has caught the attention of policy makers, the insurance industry, and academics. Until now, however, no single book has pulled together the available research on the topic. The Economics and Politics of Choice No-Fault Insurance fills that gap. Edited by scholars from different disciplines, each of whom has written extensively on automobile insurance issues, the book includes some of the best work in the area. Former Massachusetts Governor and presidential candidate Michael S. Dukakis wrote the foreword.Contributors include University of Virginia Law Professor Jeffrey O'Connell, widely considered the `father of no-fault,' as well as authors of the influential RAND study of the potential effects of choice no-fault on insurance rates. The book chapters, most of which were written especially for this volume, cover topics ranging from the impact of choice no-fault on accidents and driving behavior, to the effects of choice on medical care usage, to alternative approaches for resolving accidents involving both `no-fault' and `tort' electors, to the political feasibility of choice legislative proposals. Emphasis on the potential advantages of choice no-fault is balanced by consideration of possible ill effects.

Motor vehicle accidents are still a leading cause of death, even if the trend has somewhat declined over the past 20 years. Indeed, motor vehicle accidents are a significant cause of death in comparison with air and space transport accidents, homicides and even HIV infections, causes which are more often highlighted in the media. As shown in this book, motor vehicle accidents are particularly damaging to very young drivers. The assessment of driving risks is a common concern for road transportation safety and the automobile insurance industry. In both cases, there is an awareness of the great losses resulting from the deaths, injuries and property damage caused by traffic accidents. Research is essential to counteract this public health threat, to assess the success or failure of countermeasures, and to solve the problems it generates in the insurance industry. This book is for people concerned about road crashes (prevention and compensation) and about the insurance problems they pose - namely private and public institutional authorities, consultants, administrators, practitioners, and researchers interested in sharing the authors' experience in this domain. The book presents original contributions related to motor vehicle insurance and road safety. All papers have been evaluated by external referees. Four subjects are covered: 1) Automobile Insurance Pricing, Risks and Asymmetric Information; 2) Insurance Fraud; 3) Young Drivers: Licensing Policies, Evaluation and Risks; and 4) Road Insurance Regulation.

The experience of privatization of social security has been predominantly in the Latin American region. Eight countries have undertaken either full or partial privatization of pensions: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. What did the policymakers expect? Were expectations realized? Can we learn anything from the collective experience of these countries? Can they be applied to other countries that are aspiring to privatize? How did the World Bank and other international institutions affect these policies? Pension Reform in Latin America and Its Lessons for International Policymakers analyzes in detail these important questions. The book begins with a detailed account of economic conditions in Latin America. It then discusses various models that policymakers rely on. Starting with a purely demographic model, it lays out advanced models of overlapping generations of Samuelson. The book gives extensive details of privatized pensions in each of the eight reforming countries. Two chapters are devoted to analyzing the reform in each country. Finally, detailed lessons are drawn that will help shape the debate for policymakers in other countries.