Middle East Institute Policy Series – serie

The Middle East is the region in which the first act of cyber warfare took place. Since then, cyber warfare has escalated and has completely altered the course of the MENA region’s geopolitics.With a foreword by top national security and cyber expert, Richard A. Clarke, this is the first anthology to specifically investigate the history and state of cyber warfare in the Middle East. It gathers an array of technical practitioners, social science scholars, and legal experts to provide a panoramic overview and cross-sectional analysis covering four main areas: privacy and civil society; the types of cyber conflict; information and influence operations; and methods of countering extremism online. The book highlights the real threat of hacktivism and informational warfare between state actors and the specific issues affecting the MENA region. These include digital authoritarianism and malware attacks in the Middle East, analysis of how ISIS and the Syrian electronic army use the internet, and the impact of disinformation and cybercrime in the Gulf. The book captures the flashpoints and developments in cyber conflict in the past 10 years and offers a snapshot of the region’s still-early cyber history. It also clarifies how cyber warfare may develop in the near- to medium-term future and provides ideas of how its greatest risks can be avoided.

The Middle East is the region in which the first act of cyber warfare took place. Since then, cyber warfare has escalated and has completely altered the course of the MENA region’s geopolitics.With a foreword by top national security and cyber expert, Richard A. Clarke, this is the first anthology to specifically investigate the history and state of cyber warfare in the Middle East. It gathers an array of technical practitioners, social science scholars, and legal experts to provide a panoramic overview and cross-sectional analysis covering four main areas: privacy and civil society; the types of cyber conflict; information and influence operations; and methods of countering extremism online. The book highlights the real threat of hacktivism and informational warfare between state actors and the specific issues affecting the MENA region. These include digital authoritarianism and malware attacks in the Middle East, analysis of how ISIS and the Syrian electronic army use the internet, and the impact of disinformation and cybercrime in the Gulf. The book captures the flashpoints and developments in cyber conflict in the past 10 years and offers a snapshot of the region’s still-early cyber history. It also clarifies how cyber warfare may develop in the near- to medium-term future and provides ideas of how its greatest risks can be avoided.

Since the 1979 revolution, Iranian leaders have persisted in advancing a foreign policy aimed at achieving regional prominence and, in particular, rebuffing U.S. efforts to limit Iran’s influence. But how are foreign policy decisions made in light of the country’s tumultuous history? How do the challenges posed by regional and global actors impact Iranian decision making? And how can we expect Iran to behave in the future?This book uses a ‘strategic lens’ to explain how Iran conducts its current foreign policy and to unpack the dilemmas and strategic quandaries facing the Islamic Republic today. Ross Harrison argues that to understand Iranian behavior it is essential to look at it from the perspective of Iran’s strategic interests, namely: its capabilities; how Iran interprets the region, the international community and itself; and the state’s conception of time and territory in its foreign policy calculations. Iranian foreign policy - in searching for a winning strategy for power and influence – is revealed to evince ideological strains but also realpolitik considerations based on current interpretations of the national interest. These different strains in Iran’s foreign policy represent the complexity of the challenges and opportunities the state faces. They also help us to understand the present and future of Iranian foreign policy behavior.

Since the 1979 revolution, Iranian leaders have persisted in advancing a foreign policy aimed at achieving regional prominence and, in particular, rebuffing U.S. efforts to limit Iran’s influence. But what are the drivers of Iran’s foreign policy in light of the country’s tumultuous history? How do the challenges posed by regional and global actors impact Iranian foreign policymaking? And how can we expect Iran to behave in the future?This book uses a ‘strategic lens’ to explain how Iran conducts its current foreign policy and to unpack the dilemmas and strategic quandaries facing the Islamic Republic today. Ross Harrison argues that to understand Iranian behavior it is essential to look at it from the perspective of how Iran interprets its history, the region, the international community and itself; and the state’s capabilities and conception of time and territory. Iranian foreign policy - in searching for a winning strategy for power and influence – is revealed to evince ideological strains, but also realpolitik considerations based on current interpretations of the national interest. These different strains in Iran’s foreign policy represent the complexity of the challenges and opportunities the state faces. They also help us to understand the present and future of Iranian foreign policy behavior.

This book is a study of a shift in the politics and finance of development from one centered in the institutions and ideas of the post-World War II global political economy to the emergence of South-South economic ties and the rise of authoritarian or state capitalism as an alternative model of development. This is a study of the economic statecraft of the Gulf Arab states, specifically the deployment of aid, investment, and direct support from some of the wealthiest petrostates of the world to their surrounding sphere of influence within the Middle East, Horn of Africa, and West Asia. These new models of development finance, aid, and intervention include distinct institutional designs and ideological bases. For the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, the preference for state-led and often state-owned development is a strategic priority in the energy sector, a mechanism for domestic economic growth and consolidation of wealth among leadership and ruling families. Exporting that agenda as a foreign economic policy tool continues all of the domestic benefits, while also affirming broader regional political goals.

This book is a study of a shift in the politics and finance of development from one centered in the institutions and ideas of the post-World War II global political economy to the emergence of South-South economic ties and the rise of authoritarian or state capitalism as an alternative model of development. This is a study of the economic statecraft of the Gulf Arab states, specifically the deployment of aid, investment, and direct support from some of the wealthiest petrostates of the world to their surrounding sphere of influence within the Middle East, Horn of Africa, and West Asia. These new models of development finance, aid, and intervention include distinct institutional designs and ideological bases. For the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, the preference for state-led and often state-owned development is a strategic priority in the energy sector, a mechanism for domestic economic growth and consolidation of wealth among leadership and ruling families. Exporting that agenda as a foreign economic policy tool continues all of the domestic benefits, while also affirming broader regional political goals.

How can the current civil wars in the Middle East be resolved? This volume brings together academics, experts, and practitioners to explore this question. The book covers the history of civil wars in the region during the 20th century, and then examines the specific causes, drivers, and dynamics of the ongoing civil wars in Syria, Yemen, Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq.Updated for a second edition, the book argues that while these are very different cases of civil war, there are patterns that are important to point out at the outset. First, while each of the conflicts appears to be a relatively recent phenomenon, each has a long historical tail. Second, each of the civil wars had deep and complex domestic drivers and dynamics over issues of governance, political identity, and resources; at the same time, all of the conflicts have had deep regional and international components. Finally, all of these civil wars have been affected by the presence or entrance of armed transnational non-state actors, which have had far greater involvement in the Middle Eastern civil wars compared to other regions. The book concludes that these conflicts will require a mixture of local, regional, and international interventions to bring them to an end, but that none of the conflicts are likely to end cleanly through either a negotiated settlement or a clear victory by one party or the other.Despite this pessimistic overall assessment, the book emphasizes that policymakers should use knowledge of civil wars in the Middle East to develop and pursue specific national, regional and global policies. These should be built around mitigating the worst effects of the conflicts and towards ultimate resolution.

How can the current civil wars in the Middle East be resolved? This volume brings together academics, experts, and practitioners to explore this question. The book covers the history of civil wars in the region during the 20th century, and then examines the specific causes, drivers, and dynamics of the ongoing civil wars in Syria, Yemen, Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq.Updated for a second edition, the book argues that while these are very different cases of civil war, there are patterns that are important to point out at the outset. First, while each of the conflicts appears to be a relatively recent phenomenon, each has a long historical tail. Second, each of the civil wars had deep and complex domestic drivers and dynamics over issues of governance, political identity, and resources; at the same time, all of the conflicts have had deep regional and international components. Finally, all of these civil wars have been affected by the presence or entrance of armed transnational non-state actors, which have had far greater involvement in the Middle Eastern civil wars compared to other regions. The book concludes that these conflicts will require a mixture of local, regional, and international interventions to bring them to an end, but that none of the conflicts are likely to end cleanly through either a negotiated settlement or a clear victory by one party or the other.Despite this pessimistic overall assessment, the book emphasizes that policymakers should use knowledge of civil wars in the Middle East to develop and pursue specific national, regional and global policies. These should be built around mitigating the worst effects of the conflicts and towards ultimate resolution.

How do Middle East energy transitions fit into international energy markets? In this book, energy analysts, geopolitical experts and specialists of political economy examine the new energy potential in the Middle East. The particular focus surrounds how the region’s access to finance, combined with the new global regulations and considerations of economic development, shape the region’s energy transitions overall. The Middle East is revealed to be a key site of new energy production, sharing and transmission as well as technology innovation. At the same time, the authors examine the variables that determine the success in each country and energy source, including the advantages that hydrocarbon producers will have in renewables and transition fuels, and the risk that these might slow down the energy transition overall. In doing so, the book situates the energy transition in the Middle East in a broader context of economic development, financing models, and regulations, and explains how this context interacts with the development of new energy sources. Energy Transitions in the Middle East is an account of the challenges Middle Eastern states will face in navigating the global energy transition, as well as their key areas of opportunity.

How do Middle East energy transitions fit into international energy markets? In this book, energy analysts, geopolitical experts and specialists of political economy examine the new energy potential in the Middle East. The particular focus surrounds how the region’s access to finance, combined with the new global regulations and considerations of economic development, shape the region’s energy transitions overall. The Middle East is revealed to be a key site of new energy production, sharing and transmission as well as technology innovation. At the same time, the authors examine the variables that determine the success in each country and energy source, including the advantages that hydrocarbon producers will have in renewables and transition fuels, and the risk that these might slow down the energy transition overall. In doing so, the book situates the energy transition in the Middle East in a broader context of economic development, financing models, and regulations, and explains how this context interacts with the development of new energy sources. Energy Transitions in the Middle East is an account of the challenges Middle Eastern states will face in navigating the global energy transition, as well as their key areas of opportunity.

Lebanon's significance to the Middle East and the global arena is greater than its small size suggests - bordering Israel and Syria, it holds a geo-strategic role as the playing field for their competition as well as for their allies, America and Iran. This book examines how American diplomacy has responded to the intersection of local, regional, and international factors in Lebanon.David Hale examines several key episodes in US diplomatic history with Lebanon, starting with the country's independence in 1943, up until the present moment. Crucial events such as the Lebanese Civil War, the Cedar Revolution, and more recently the spillover from the Syrian Civil War, are examined within the context of the respective US government administrations of the time and their foreign policy strategies. Hale asks whether policy-makers had realistic and compelling goals, the right strategy, sufficient means, and capable diplomats in its diplomatic approaches towards Lebanon through the years. Crucially, this study focuses on how, during these critical periods, American diplomacy toward Lebanon had consequences beyond the country itself, and on the narrative lines and lessons for the broader conduct of American foreign policy.

Lebanon's significance to the Middle East and the global arena is greater than its small size suggests - bordering Israel and Syria, it holds a geo-strategic role as the playing field for their competition as well as for their allies, America and Iran. This book examines how American diplomacy has responded to the intersection of local, regional, and international factors in Lebanon.David Hale examines several key episodes in US diplomatic history with Lebanon, starting with the country's independence in 1943, up until the present moment. Crucial events such as the Lebanese Civil War, the Cedar Revolution, and more recently the spillover from the Syrian Civil War, are examined within the context of the respective US government administrations of the time and their foreign policy strategies. Hale asks whether policy-makers had realistic and compelling goals, the right strategy, sufficient means, and capable diplomats in its diplomatic approaches towards Lebanon through the years. Crucially, this study focuses on how, during these critical periods, American diplomacy toward Lebanon had consequences beyond the country itself, and on the narrative lines and lessons for the broader conduct of American foreign policy.

This book provides a comprehensive study of the complex impacts of the war in Ukraine on Russo-Iranian relations, and the resulting consequences for the international relations of the Middle East. In contrast to dominant academic approaches, which view Russo-Iranian relations through the lens of an anti-hegemonic agenda and confrontation with the US-led international order, this study presents an alternative angle stating that the war in Ukraine has sped up Moscow and Tehran's interdependency, primarily because of the protective benefits that it brings to both states.The book analyzes various debates about the impact of the war on Russo-Iranian relations. From the perspective of the emerging literature on authoritarian regionalism, the book explores how domestic politics and common threat perceptions play a role in these states’ decisions to adjust to the systemic changes caused by the war. Chapters address how changes in the strategic environment are affecting Moscow and Tehran’s perception of each other, what factors contribute the most to both states' decision to pursue greater cooperation and how they manage the new conflicts of interest raised by the war. The book also queries whether relations continue to be based on tactical partnership, or whether a stronger alliance between Moscow and Tehran is unfolding, and what the consequences of such a struggle for alliance will be for the wider region.