Springer Actuarial – serie

This book proposes a review of Long-Term Care insurance; this issue is addressed both from a global point of view (through a presentation of the risk of dependence associated with the aging of the population) and an actuarial point of view (with the presentation of existing insurance products and actuarial techniques for pricing and reserving).It proposes a cross-view of American and European experiences for this risk.This book is the first dedicated entirely to long-term care insurance and aims to provide a useful reference for all actuaries facing this issue. It is intended for both professionals and academics.

This monograph presents a time-dynamic model for multivariate claim counts in actuarial applications.Inspired by real-world claim arrivals, the model balances interesting stylized facts (such as dependence across the components, over-dispersion and the clustering of claims) with a high level of mathematical tractability (including estimation, sampling and convergence results for large portfolios) and can thus be applied in various contexts (such as risk management and pricing of (re-)insurance contracts). The authors provide a detailed analysis of the proposed probabilistic model, discussing its relation to the existing literature, its statistical properties, different estimation strategies as well as possible applications and extensions. Actuaries and researchers working in risk management and premium pricing will find this book particularly interesting. Graduate-level probability theory, stochastic analysis and statistics are required.

This book summarizes the state of the art in generalized linear models (GLMs) and their various extensions: GAMs, mixed models and credibility, and some nonlinear variants (GNMs). In order to deal with tail events, analytical tools from Extreme Value Theory are presented. Going beyond mean modeling, it considers volatility modeling (double GLMs) and the general modeling of location, scale and shape parameters (GAMLSS). Actuaries need these advanced analytical tools to turn the massive data sets now at their disposal into opportunities. The exposition alternates between methodological aspects and case studies, providing numerical illustrations using the R statistical software. The technical prerequisites are kept at a reasonable level in order to reach a broad readership. This is the first of three volumes entitled Effective Statistical Learning Methods for Actuaries. Written by actuaries for actuaries, this series offers a comprehensive overview of insurance data analytics with applications to P&C, life and health insurance. Although closely related to the other two volumes, this volume can be read independently.

This book reviews some of the most recent developments in neural networks, with a focus on applications in actuarial sciences and finance. It simultaneously introduces the relevant tools for developing and analyzing neural networks, in a style that is mathematically rigorous yet accessible.Artificial intelligence and neural networks offer a powerful alternative to statistical methods for analyzing data. Various topics are covered from feed-forward networks to deep learning, such as Bayesian learning, boosting methods and Long Short Term Memory models. All methods are applied to claims, mortality or time-series forecasting.Requiring only a basic knowledge of statistics, this book is written for masters students in the actuarial sciences and for actuaries wishing to update their skills in machine learning.This is the third of three volumes entitled Effective Statistical Learning Methods for Actuaries. Written by actuaries for actuaries, this series offers a comprehensive overview of insurance data analytics with applications to P&C, life and health insurance. Although closely related to the other two volumes, this volume can be read independently.

This book deals with Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) and, in particular, Quantitative Risk Management (QRM) in life insurance business. Constituting a “bridge” between traditional actuarial mathematics and insurance risk management processes, its purpose is to provide advanced undergraduate and graduate students in the Actuarial Sciences, Finance and Economics with the basics of ERM (in general) and QRM applied to life insurance business. The main topics dealt with are: general issues on ERM, risk management tools for life insurance and life annuities, deterministic and stochastic analysis of the behaviour of a portfolio fund, application of sensitivity testing to assess ranges of results of interest, stress testing to assess the impact of extreme scenarios, and the product development process for life annuity products.

This book summarizes the state of the art in tree-based methods for insurance: regression trees, random forests and boosting methods. It also exhibits the tools which make it possible to assess the predictive performance of tree-based models. Actuaries need these advanced analytical tools to turn the massive data sets now at their disposal into opportunities.The exposition alternates between methodological aspects and numerical illustrations or case studies. All numerical illustrations are performed with the R statistical software. The technical prerequisites are kept at a reasonable level in order to reach a broad readership. In particular, master's students in actuarial sciences and actuaries wishing to update their skills in machine learning will find the book useful.This is the second of three volumes entitled Effective Statistical Learning Methods for Actuaries. Written by actuaries for actuaries, this series offers a comprehensive overview of insurancedata analytics with applications to P&C, life and health insurance.

This open access book collects expert contributions on actuarial modelling and related topics, from machine learning to legal aspects, and reflects on possible insurance designs during an epidemic/pandemic.Starting by considering the impulse given by COVID-19 to the insurance industry and to actuarial research, the text covers compartment models, mortality changes during a pandemic, risk-sharing in the presence of low probability events, group testing, compositional data analysis for detecting data inconsistencies, behaviouristic aspects in fighting a pandemic, and insurers’ legal problems, amongst others.Concluding with an essay by a practicing actuary on the applicability of the methods proposed, this interdisciplinary book is aimed at actuaries as well as readers with a background in mathematics, economics, statistics, finance, epidemiology, or sociology.

This open access book collects expert contributions on actuarial modelling and related topics, from machine learning to legal aspects, and reflects on possible insurance designs during an epidemic/pandemic.Starting by considering the impulse given by COVID-19 to the insurance industry and to actuarial research, the text covers compartment models, mortality changes during a pandemic, risk-sharing in the presence of low probability events, group testing, compositional data analysis for detecting data inconsistencies, behaviouristic aspects in fighting a pandemic, and insurers’ legal problems, amongst others.Concluding with an essay by a practicing actuary on the applicability of the methods proposed, this interdisciplinary book is aimed at actuaries as well as readers with a background in mathematics, economics, statistics, finance, epidemiology, or sociology.

This open access book discusses the statistical modeling of insurance problems, a process which comprises data collection, data analysis and statistical model building to forecast insured events that may happen in the future. It presents the mathematical foundations behind these fundamental statistical concepts and how they can be applied in daily actuarial practice.Statistical modeling has a wide range of applications, and, depending on the application, the theoretical aspects may be weighted differently: here the main focus is on prediction rather than explanation. Starting with a presentation of state-of-the-art actuarial models, such as generalized linear models, the book then dives into modern machine learning tools such as neural networks and text recognition to improve predictive modeling with complex features.  Providing practitioners with detailed guidance on how to apply machine learning methods to real-world data sets, and how to interpret the results without losing sight of the mathematical assumptions on which these methods are based, the book can serve as a modern basis for an actuarial education syllabus.

This open access book discusses the statistical modeling of insurance problems, a process which comprises data collection, data analysis and statistical model building to forecast insured events that may happen in the future. It presents the mathematical foundations behind these fundamental statistical concepts and how they can be applied in daily actuarial practice.Statistical modeling has a wide range of applications, and, depending on the application, the theoretical aspects may be weighted differently: here the main focus is on prediction rather than explanation. Starting with a presentation of state-of-the-art actuarial models, such as generalized linear models, the book then dives into modern machine learning tools such as neural networks and text recognition to improve predictive modeling with complex features.  Providing practitioners with detailed guidance on how to apply machine learning methods to real-world data sets, and how to interpret the results without losing sight of the mathematical assumptions on which these methods are based, the book can serve as a modern basis for an actuarial education syllabus.

The book offers an introduction to the technical foundation of decentralized insurance models, for advanced undergraduate students, graduate students and practitioners. The book is self-contained and anyone with a basic knowledge of probability and statistics should be able to follow through the entire book. It adopts a minimalist approach to describe the essential elements and first principles so that readers can get a gist of these models without being overwhelmed with too much technicality. It can be used as a reference for business model designs. The inclusion of exercises and practical examples makes the book suitable for advanced courses on decentralized insurance and risk sharing.There is a mix of industry practices and academic models presented in this book. The exposition starts with an overview of historic and current business practices and preliminaries on the mathematics and economics of risk and insurance.  A bird's-eye view of traditional insurance isprovided as a benchmark for various topics to be used in contrast with decentralized insurance. The book then continues with decentralized insurance practices around the world, including online mutual aid originated in China, takaful from the Islamic world, peer-to-peer insurance in the West, catastrophe risk pooling for Carribean countries, etc. Theories of aggregate risk pooling and peer-to-peer risk exchanges are provided for readers to appreciate the mathematical foundation of risk sharing. A unified framework of decentralized insurance is presented to show a structured approach to the economic design of decentralized business models. The book ends with a technical review of blockchain and decentralized finance (DeFi) insurance applications.

The book offers an introduction to the technical foundation of decentralized insurance models, for advanced undergraduate students, graduate students and practitioners. The book is self-contained and anyone with a basic knowledge of probability and statistics should be able to follow through the entire book. It adopts a minimalist approach to describe the essential elements and first principles so that readers can get a gist of these models without being overwhelmed with too much technicality. It can be used as a reference for business model designs. The inclusion of exercises and practical examples makes the book suitable for advanced courses on decentralized insurance and risk sharing.There is a mix of industry practices and academic models presented in this book. The exposition starts with an overview of historic and current business practices and preliminaries on the mathematics and economics of risk and insurance.  A bird's-eye view of traditional insurance isprovided as a benchmark for various topics to be used in contrast with decentralized insurance. The book then continues with decentralized insurance practices around the world, including online mutual aid originated in China, takaful from the Islamic world, peer-to-peer insurance in the West, catastrophe risk pooling for Carribean countries, etc. Theories of aggregate risk pooling and peer-to-peer risk exchanges are provided for readers to appreciate the mathematical foundation of risk sharing. A unified framework of decentralized insurance is presented to show a structured approach to the economic design of decentralized business models. The book ends with a technical review of blockchain and decentralized finance (DeFi) insurance applications.

This book offers a comprehensive examination of the Cramér–Lundberg model, which is the most extensively researched model in ruin theory. It covers the fundamental dynamics of an insurance company's surplus level in great detail, presenting a thorough analysis of the ruin probability and related measures for both the standard model and its variants.Providing a systematic and self-contained approach to evaluate the crucial quantities found in the Cramér–Lundberg model, the book makes use of connections with related queueing models when appropriate, and its emphasis on clean transform-based techniques sets it apart from other works. In addition to consolidating a wealth of existing results, the book also derives several new outcomes using the same methodology.This material is complemented by a thoughtfully chosen collection of exercises. The book's primary target audience is master's and starting PhD students in applied mathematics, operations research, and actuarial science, although it also serves as a useful methodological resource for more advanced researchers. The material is self-contained, requiring only a basic grounding in probability theory and some knowledge of transform techniques.

This book offers a comprehensive examination of the Cramér–Lundberg model, which is the most extensively researched model in ruin theory. It covers the fundamental dynamics of an insurance company's surplus level in great detail, presenting a thorough analysis of the ruin probability and related measures for both the standard model and its variants.Providing a systematic and self-contained approach to evaluate the crucial quantities found in the Cramér–Lundberg model, the book makes use of connections with related queueing models when appropriate, and its emphasis on clean transform-based techniques sets it apart from other works. In addition to consolidating a wealth of existing results, the book also derives several new outcomes using the same methodology.This material is complemented by a thoughtfully chosen collection of exercises. The book's primary target audience is master's and starting PhD students in applied mathematics, operations research, and actuarial science, although it also serves as a useful methodological resource for more advanced researchers. The material is self-contained, requiring only a basic grounding in probability theory and some knowledge of transform techniques.

This book offers an introduction to the technical foundations of discrimination and equity issues in insurance models, catering to undergraduates, postgraduates, and practitioners. It is a self-contained resource, accessible to those with a basic understanding of probability and statistics. Designed as both a reference guide and a means to develop fairer models, the book acknowledges the complexity and ambiguity surrounding the question of discrimination in insurance. In insurance, proposing differentiated premiums that accurately reflect policyholders' true risk—termed "actuarial fairness" or "legitimate discrimination"—is economically and ethically motivated. However, such segmentation can appear discriminatory from a legal perspective. By intertwining real-life examples with academic models, the book incorporates diverse perspectives from philosophy, social sciences, economics, mathematics, and computer science. Although discrimination has long been a subject of inquiry in economics and philosophy, it has gained renewed prominence in the context of "big data," with an abundance of proxy variables capturing sensitive attributes, and "artificial intelligence" or specifically "machine learning" techniques, which often involve less interpretable black box algorithms.The book distinguishes between models and data to enhance our comprehension of why a model may appear unfair. It reminds us that while a model may not be inherently good or bad, it is never neutral and often represents a formalization of a world seen through potentially biased data. Furthermore, the book equips actuaries with technical tools to quantify and mitigate potential discrimination, featuring dedicated chapters that delve into these methods.

This book offers an introduction to the technical foundations of discrimination and equity issues in insurance models, catering to undergraduates, postgraduates, and practitioners. It is a self-contained resource, accessible to those with a basic understanding of probability and statistics. Designed as both a reference guide and a means to develop fairer models, the book acknowledges the complexity and ambiguity surrounding the question of discrimination in insurance. In insurance, proposing differentiated premiums that accurately reflect policyholders' true risk—termed "actuarial fairness" or "legitimate discrimination"—is economically and ethically motivated. However, such segmentation can appear discriminatory from a legal perspective. By intertwining real-life examples with academic models, the book incorporates diverse perspectives from philosophy, social sciences, economics, mathematics, and computer science. Although discrimination has long been a subject of inquiry in economics and philosophy, it has gained renewed prominence in the context of "big data," with an abundance of proxy variables capturing sensitive attributes, and "artificial intelligence" or specifically "machine learning" techniques, which often involve less interpretable black box algorithms.The book distinguishes between models and data to enhance our comprehension of why a model may appear unfair. It reminds us that while a model may not be inherently good or bad, it is never neutral and often represents a formalization of a world seen through potentially biased data. Furthermore, the book equips actuaries with technical tools to quantify and mitigate potential discrimination, featuring dedicated chapters that delve into these methods.

This open access volume explores the cutting edge of quantitative methods in agricultural risk management and insurance.  Composed of insightful articles authored by field experts, focusing on innovation, recent advancements, and the use of technology and data sciences, it bridges the gap between theory and practice through empirical studies, concrete examples and case analyses.Evolving challenges in risk management have called for the development of new, groundbreaking models. Beyond presenting the theoretical foundations of these models, this book discusses their real-world applications, providing tangible insights into how innovative modeling can elevate risk management strategies in the agricultural sector.The latest risk management tools incorporate novel concepts such as index insurance, price index risk management frameworks and risk pools. The practical implications of these approaches are investigated, and their impact on contemporary agricultural risk mitigation and insurance practices is examined. Field experiences illustrate the implementation of these tools and their resulting outcomes.Modern data analysis techniques in agricultural risk and insurance include machine learning, spatial analysis, text analysis, and deep learning. In addition to scrutinizing these ideas, the authors introduce an economic perspective towards risk, highlighting areas that have developed thanks to technological progress. Examples illustrate how these combined methodologies contribute to informed decision-making in agriculture, and their potential benefits and challenges are considered.This carefully compiled volume will be a valuable reference for researchers, practitioners, and students intrigued by the dynamic intersection of agricultural risk management and insurance practices.

This open access volume explores the cutting edge of quantitative methods in agricultural risk management and insurance.  Composed of insightful articles authored by field experts, focusing on innovation, recent advancements, and the use of technology and data sciences, it bridges the gap between theory and practice through empirical studies, concrete examples and case analyses.Evolving challenges in risk management have called for the development of new, groundbreaking models. Beyond presenting the theoretical foundations of these models, this book discusses their real-world applications, providing tangible insights into how innovative modeling can elevate risk management strategies in the agricultural sector.The latest risk management tools incorporate novel concepts such as index insurance, price index risk management frameworks and risk pools. The practical implications of these approaches are investigated, and their impact on contemporary agricultural risk mitigation and insurance practices is examined. Field experiences illustrate the implementation of these tools and their resulting outcomes.Modern data analysis techniques in agricultural risk and insurance include machine learning, spatial analysis, text analysis, and deep learning. In addition to scrutinizing these ideas, the authors introduce an economic perspective towards risk, highlighting areas that have developed thanks to technological progress. Examples illustrate how these combined methodologies contribute to informed decision-making in agriculture, and their potential benefits and challenges are considered.This carefully compiled volume will be a valuable reference for researchers, practitioners, and students intrigued by the dynamic intersection of agricultural risk management and insurance practices.

This book offers a broad and up-to-date account of the actuarial principles of pensions. Divided into three parts, it includes discussions on both social security schemes and private pension funds, and aspects of life insurance.The first part presents the general principles of pension schemes. After a general look at the pension issue and some basic elements of demography, the main methods of financing a pension plan, for example pay-as-you-go or funding, are described in a unified way.The second part gives a detailed analysis of the pay-as-you-go methodologies for social security schemes. Recent concepts such as notional defined contribution plans, hybrid schemes and point systems are studied from an actuarial perspective.The final part, devoted to funding techniques, examines the main individual and collective funding methods, such as unit credit and aggregate cost, and looks at the management of actuarial gains and losses.This is the first book to give a joint and up-to-date analysis of public and private pension schemes from an actuarial point of view. Aimed primarily at undergraduate and graduate students, and actuaries involved in pensions, it will also be useful to mathematicians, economist, accountants, and anyone with basic quantitative training who is interested in pension issues.

This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts.A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory.Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

This book provides an overview of classical actuarial techniques, including material that is not readily accessible elsewhere such as the Ammeter risk model and the Markov-modulated risk model. Other topics covered include utility theory, credibility theory, claims reserving and ruin theory. The author treats both theoretical and practical aspects and also discusses links to Solvency II. Written by one of the leading experts in the field, these lecture notes serve as a valuable introduction to some of the most frequently used methods in non-life insurance. They will be of particular interest to graduate students, researchers and practitioners in insurance, finance and risk management.

This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts.A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory.Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.