The Stone Lectures in Economics – serie

Based on two lectures presented as part of The Stone Lectures in Economics series, Arnold Zellner describes the structural econometric time series analysis (SEMTSA) approach to statistical and econometric modeling. Developed by Zellner and Franz Palm, the SEMTSA approach produces an understanding of the relationship of univariate and multivariate time series forecasting models and dynamic, time series structural econometric models. As scientists and decision-makers in industry and government world-wide adopt the Bayesian approach to scientific inference, decision-making and forecasting, Zellner offers an in-depth analysis and appreciation of this important paradigm shift. Finally Zellner discusses the alternative approaches to model building and looks at how the use and development of the SEMTSA approach has led to the production of a Marshallian Macroeconomic Model that will prove valuable to many. Written by one of the foremost practitioners of econometrics, this book will have wide academic and professional appeal.

Based on lectures given as part of The Stone Lectures in Economics, this book discusses the problem of formulating monetary policy in practice, under the uncertain circumstances which characterize the real world. The first lecture highlights the limitations of decision rules suggested by the academic literature and recommends an approach involving, first, a firm reliance on the few fundamental and robust results of monetary economics and, secondly, a pragmatic attitude to policy implementation, taking into consideration lessons from central banking experience. The second lecture revisits Milton Friedman's questions about the effects of active stabilization policies on business cycle fluctuations. It explores the implications of a simple model where the policy maker has imperfect knowledge about potential output and the private sector forms expectations according to adaptive learning. This lecture shows that imperfect knowledge limits the scope for active stabilization policy and strengthens the case for conservatism.

Based on two lectures presented as part of The Stone Lectures in Economics series, Arnold Zellner describes the structural econometric time series analysis (SEMTSA) approach to statistical and econometric modeling. Developed by Zellner and Franz Palm, the SEMTSA approach produces an understanding of the relationship of univariate and multivariate time series forecasting models and dynamic, time series structural econometric models. As scientists and decision-makers in industry and government world-wide adopt the Bayesian approach to scientific inference, decision-making and forecasting, Zellner offers an in-depth analysis and appreciation of this important paradigm shift. Finally Zellner discusses the alternative approaches to model building and looks at how the use and development of the SEMTSA approach has led to the production of a Marshallian Macroeconomic Model that will prove valuable to many. Written by one of the foremost practitioners of econometrics, this book will have wide academic and professional appeal.