United Nations Trade and Development Report – serie

The Trade and Development Report 2023 analyses current economic trends and major policy issues of international concern and makes suggestions for addressing these issues at various levels. The report warns that the global economy is stalling, with growth slowing in most regions compared with last year and only a few countries bucking the trend. The global economy is at a crossroads, where divergent growth paths, widening inequalities, growing market concentration and mounting debt burdens cast shadows on the future. The prospect of meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 is fading as a combination of rising interest rates, weakening currencies and slowing export growth squeezes the fiscal space needed for governments to fight climate change and provide for their people. The report calls for a change in policy direction--including by leading central banks--and accompanying institutional reforms promised during the COVID-19 crisis to avert a lost decade. It urges global financial reforms, more pragmatic policies to tackle inflation, inequality and sovereign debt distress, and stronger oversight of key markets. The report proposes actions to get the global economy moving in the right direction by using a balanced policy mix of fiscal, monetary and supply-side measures to achieve financial stability, boost productive investment and create better jobs. Part I of the report launches on 4 October 2023 with part II expected in November.

The Trade and Development Report 2024 forecasts global growth in gross domestic product of 2.7 per cent for 2024 and 2025, marking three consecutive years below the 3 per cent pre-pandemic growth trend. Regionally, South Asia displays the most dynamic growth. The three major powers of the global economy – China, the United States of America and the European Union – are on decelerating or weakened growth trajectories. Despite the context of a turbocharged technological revolution, the much-needed acceleration in economic activity to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals remains elusive for many countries in the global South trapped by a confluence of high debt burdens, financial and resource outflows, weak investment and enforced austerity. Only 1 of the 46 least developed countries is currently meeting the promise of a 7 per cent annual growth target under the global Goals.

The 2014 edition reviews recent trends in the world economy, examining the consistency and sustainability of the economic policies currently followed. It addresses the evolution and current conditions of the policy space needed for implementing growth-enhancing and inclusive development strategies. It discusses how countries can better manage capital flows in order to expand their policy space for pursuing development strategies. It looks at policy space as depending not only on the existing rules and commitments taken in international agreements, but also on the possibility of mobilizing resources for financing industrial policies, investment and growth. It argues that fiscal space is a key aspect of policy space, and that developing countries need to address loss of revenue stemming from illicit financial flows, tax havens and inadequate taxation of extractive industries.

Despite the financial crisis, financial globalization has continued its expansion, with a significant impact on the real economy and income inequality, and generating new vulnerabilities. This publication identifies some of the critical issues to be addressed in order to establish a more stable and inclusive international monetary and financial system which can support the trade and development challenges over the coming years. It considers existing shortcomings, analyses emerging vulnerabilities and examine proposals and initiatives for reform.

Development is a transformational process, combining a series of interactive and cumulative linkages to create a virtuous circle of enhanced resource mobilization, higher incomes, expanding markets and investment, leading to more and better jobs. Such a structural transformation requires selective government policies to shift a country's productive structure towards activities and sectors with higher productivity, better paid jobs and greater technological potential; what is commonly called ""industrial policies."" The Trade and Development Report (TDR) 2016 highlights the central role of industrialization, given the higher productivity of manufactures in relation to other sectors. Manufactures can also generate strong cross-sectoral linkages (e.g. backward, forward, income and knowledge linkages) and complementarities that enhance productivity and employment growth in the primary and tertiary sectors. Countries that have been able to narrow the productivity and income gap with developed countries are those (mostly in Asia) that managed to expand investment, employment and productivity in their manufacturing sector in a sustainable way, which contrasts with other countries and regions affected by ""stalled industrialization"" or ""premature de-industrialization."" Successful structural transformation requires a comprehensive policy approach. This includes strategic policies for international trade, pro-growth macroeconomic policies to ensure high levels of aggregate demand and investment and a stable and competitive exchange rate, policies in support of the profits-investment nexus to provide finance for structural transformation, and closing tax loopholes through fiscal and regulatory measures that would bring greater transparency to corporate decision making and finance public expenditure that provides an enabling context for production upgrading and economic diversification.

The Trade and Development Report (TDR), launched in 1981, is issued every year for the annual session of the Trade and Development Board. The Report analyses current economic trends and major policy issues of international concern, and makes suggestions for addressing these issues at various levels. This year's Report focuses on the challenges for achieving inclusive growth in an era of austerity, hyper globalization and financial fragility. It includes chapters on robotics, gender and employment, finance and inequality, and the growing market power of non-financial corporations. It concludes by calling for Global New Deal, and the sorts of policy components it must include in light of the analyses provided.

This flagship publication examines different aspects of the nature and role of international trade in the era of hyperglobalization and considers related policy challenges that will need to be addressed if trade is to contribute to a more stable and inclusive global economic order. Research provides authoritative data and analysis on trade, investment, finance and technology. UNCTAD offers solutions to the major challenges facing developing countries, particularly the poorest and most vulnerable nations. Beyond tailored analysis and policy recommendations, UNCTAD research also generates global standards that govern responsible sovereign lending and borrowing, investment, entrepreneurship, competition and consumer protection and trade rules.

This report examines different aspects of the nature and role of international trade in the era of hyperglobalization and considers related policy challenges that will need to be addressed if trade is to contribute to a more stable and inclusive global economic order. It provides authoritative data and analysis on trade, investment, finance and technology. Beyond tailored analysis and policy recommendations, such research also generates global standards that govern responsible sovereign lending and borrowing, investment, entrepreneurship, competition and consumer protection and trade rules.

This report analyses the economic impact of the Covid-19 (coronavirus) global pandemic and possible responses that could be both effective and inclusive. It examines different recovery scenarios and, in particular, highlights the danger of a lost decade, addresses immediate difficulties facing developing countries, as well as some of the underlying conditions that, if left unaddressed, will prevent a better recovery. It also discusses some of the institutional changes needed at the international level to bolster recovery and transition to a more socially caring and environmentally sustainable global economy – a transition that the world needed before the pandemic but has become ever more pressing.