Since 1925, import substitution programs have diverted South Africa's mineral revenues away from efficient investments and into the creation of an uncompetitive manufacturing sector. Protection has recently been augmented by a General Export Incentive Scheme that was designed to increase manufacturing exports. A multisector general equilibrium analysis shows the export scheme is highly complex with unusual and undesirable structural effects, seeming little more than a continuation of social engineering of the past. This work provides a definitive analysis of past and present South African trade policy, using a methodology of interest to other trade and development researchers operating in similarly spare informational environments.
