Elementary Approach To Thinking Under Uncertainty

Edited by Sarah Lichtenstein. Authors- Beyth-Marom, Ruth; Dekel, Shlomith; Gombo, Ruth; Shaked, Moshe

"...the academic psychology of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty is made tangibly clear and useful for everyday living...this book ought to be required reading for every high school and undergraduate student and adult in America."—Science Books & Films

• Part 1 I A GENERAL FRAMEWORK; Chapter 1 1 Certainty and Uncertainty; Chapter 2 2 Defining the Uncertain Situation; Chapter 3 3 Listing and Grouping Possible Answers; Chapter 4 4 Defining Degrees of Belief; Part 2 II SOME TOOLS; Chapter 5 5 Estimation; Chapter 6 6 Sampling —Part I; Chapter 7 7 Sampling —Part II; Part 3 III PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT; Chapter 8 8 From Group Percentages to Individual Chances — Part I; Chapter 9 9 From Group Percentages to Individual Chances —Part II; Chapter 10 10 Estimating Chances in Exceptional Problems; Chapter 11 11 Two Demonstrations; Bibliography and Background Reading; Subject Index;