Professor John Wiens, PRBO Conservation Science, California, USAProfessor Wiens is currently Chief Conservation Science Officer at PRBO Conservation Science, California, and a visiting faculty member of the University of Western Australia in Perth, where he collaborates with colleagues on restoration ecology. He held positions at Oregon state University, the University of New Mexico and Colorado State University before leaving academia in 2002 to join The Nature Conservancy as Lead Scientist. He has published over ten books and 250 scientific papers. At PRBO Professor Wiens develops guidance for assessing how landscapes are likely to change and how management practices can help to mitigate or adapt to the changes.

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• Preamble: Why this book?Acknowledgments xiiiEssay 1 How did I get here? 1Essay 2 Found! The survivor in the swamps (2005) 4Essay 3 In defense of footnotes (2014) 7Part I: Change, the challengeChapter 1 Conservation and change 13Chapter 2 A digression on paradigms 18Essay 4 The power of paradigms (2014) 23Essay 5 Patterns, paradigms, and preconceptions (2013) 29Essay 6 Fat times, lean times, and competition among predators (1993) 33Chapter 3 Equilibrium, stability, and change 39Essay 7 From our southern correspondent(s) (2011) 44Essay 8 Boom and bust: lessons from the outback (2014) 51Chapter 4 A digression on disturbance 57Essay 9 Oil, oil, everywhere…(2010) 60Part II: The forces of changeChapter 5 Climate change and sea-level rise 71Essay 10 Polar bears, golden toads, and conservation futures (2008) 76Chapter 6 Land-use change 79Essay 11 Will land-use change erode our conservation gains? (2007) 85Essay 12 Landscape ecology: the science and the action (1999) 88Chapter 7 Distributional changes: invasive species 91Chapter 8 Societal, cultural, and political change 96Essay 13 Wildlife, people, and water: who wins? (2012) 100Chapter 9 Population growth 105Chapter 10 Linkages among changes 109Part III: Conservation conundrumsChapter 11 Variation and history 117Essay 14 The eclipse of history? (2008) 122Essay 15 From our southern correspondent(s): which history? (2013) 125Chapter 12 A digression on baselines and targets 129Essay 16 Shooting at a moving target (2011) 133Chapter 13 Ecological thresholds 138Essay 17 Tipping points in the balance of nature (2010) 144Chapter 14 Ecological resilience 149Chapter 15 Dealing with novelty 154Essay 18 Black swans and outliers (2012) 160Essay 19 Moving outside the box (2009) 164Chapter 16 Uncertainty: a boon or a bane? 167Essay 20 Taking risks with the environment (2012) 172Essay 21 Uncertainty and the relevance of ecology (2008) 176Chapter 17 Prioritization and triage 180Essay 22 Talking about triage in conservation (2015) 188Chapter 18 Protected areas: where the wild things are 191Essay 23 Build it and they will come (2013) 197Essay 24 The dangers of black-and-white conservation (2007) 203Chapter 19 Ecosystem services and the value of nature 206Essay 25 What’s so new about ecosystem services? (2007) 211Part IV: Doing conservationChapter 20 What is it we are trying to conserve? 217Essay 26 Be careful what you wish for (2014) 222Essay 27 Concluding comments: Are bird communities real? (1980) 227Essay 28 A metaphor meets an abstraction: the issue of "Healthy Ecosystems" (2015) 230Chapter 21 Numbers, numbers, numbers 237Essay 29 Is "monitoring" a dirty word? (2009) 241Essay 30 The place of long-term studies in ornithology (1984) 244Essay 31 What use is small data in a big data world? (2013) 247Chapter 22 A digression on words 251Essay 32 Word processing versus writing (1983, 2011) 254Chapter 23 Debates in ecology and conservation 257Essay 33 On skepticism and criticism in ornithology (1981) 264Essay 34 The demise of wildness? (2007) 267Chapter 24 What lies behind the debates? Philosophy, values, and ethics 270Chapter 25 A digression on advocacy in conservation 275Essay 35 Scientific responsibility and responsible ecology (1997) 280Part V: Concluding commentsChapter 26 Whither ecology and conservation in a changing world? 287Essay 36 "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…" (2009) 292Essay 37 Being green isn’t easy (2010) 295Essay 38 Stewart Udall and the future of conservation (2010) 298References 301Scientific names of species mentioned in the text 319Index 323