Drought

Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain. Dionysis Assimacopoulos, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece. Henny A.J. Van Lanen, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.

“The experience gained over the last several decades is set out… along with a resume of lessons learnt and the resulting changes made.” (Geoscientist, February 2020)

• Series Preface xiThe Series Editor – Philippe Quevauviller xiiiList of Contributors xvPART ONE: UNDERSTANDING DROUGHT AS A NATURAL HAZARD 11.1 Diagnosis of Drought‐Generating Processes 3Henny A.J. Van Lanen, Anne F. Van Loon, and Lena M. Tallaksen1.1.1 Introduction 31.1.2 Background 41.1.3 Climate drivers of drought 71.1.3.1 Atmospheric and oceanic drivers 71.1.3.2 Summer drought of 2015 81.1.3.3 Influence of humans (Climate change) 91.1.4 Soil moisture drought processes 111.1.4.1 Processes 111.1.4.2 Human influences 131.1.5 Hydrological drought processes (Groundwater and streamflow) 141.1.5.1 Groundwater 141.1.5.2 Streamflow 171.1.6 Drought propagation 191.1.6.1 Climate–hydrology links 191.1.6.2 Hydrological drought typology 201.1.6.3 Human influences 201.1.7 Concluding remarks and outlook 211.1.7.1 Conclusions 211.1.7.2 Outlook 22Acknowledgements 23References 231.2 Recent Trends in Historical Drought 29Kerstin Stahl, Lena M. Tallaksen, and Jamie Hannaford1.2.1 Introduction 291.2.2 Trend analysis and data 301.2.2.1 Methodology 301.2.2.2 Data 311.2.3 Trends in river flow across Europe 321.2.3.1 Trends in observed river flow 321.2.3.2 Trends in modelled runoff 341.2.3.3 Influence of decadal‐scale variability on trends in long streamflow records 361.2.4 Discussion 381.2.5 Conclusions – Future needs 401.2.5.1 Conclusions 401.2.5.2 Future needs 41Acknowledgements 41References 411.3 Historic Drought from Archives: Beyond the Instrumental Record 45Emmanuel Garnier1.3.1 Introduction 451.3.2 Methodology 451.3.2.1 The historical material 451.3.2.2 Rebuild the droughts of the past 471.3.3 United Kingdom 481.3.3.1 Chronological variation and severity of the UK droughts 491.3.3.2 The most extreme events in a 500‐year period 501.3.4 France: Ile‐de‐France 551.3.4.1 Chronological variation and severity of French droughts 551.3.4.2 Two examples of very severe droughts 581.3.5 Valley of the Upper Rhine (Germany, Switzerland, France) 591.3.5.1 Chronological variation and severity of Rhenish droughts 601.3.5.2 The drought, a subject of collective memory, the Laufenstein 611.3.6 Conclusions 64Acknowledgements 65References 651.4 Future Drought 69Henny A.J. Van Lanen, Christel Prudhomme, Niko Wanders, and Marjolein H.J. Van Huijgevoort1.4.1 Introduction 691.4.2 Overview of studies 701.4.3 Assessment of future hydrological drought 711.4.3.1 Future drought across climate regions 711.4.3.2 Future streamflow drought in Europe 721.4.3.3 Hotspots of future drought 751.4.3.4 Future low flows 761.4.4 Human influences on future drought 781.4.4.1 Impact of reservoirs on future drought across the globe 781.4.4.2 Impact of water use on streamflow drought in Europe 801.4.4.3 Impact of gradual change of hydrological regime on future drought 811.4.5 Uncertainties in future drought 821.4.5.1 Uncertainty assessments 821.4.5.2 Impact sources of uncertainty 841.4.6 Conclusions – Future needs 861.4.6.1 Conclusions 861.4.6.2 Future needs 87Acknowledgements 87References 88PART TWO: VULNERABILITY, RISK, AND POLICY 932.5 On the Institutional Framework for Drought Planning and Early Action 95Ana Iglesias, Luis Garrote, and Alfredo Granados2.5.1 Introduction 952.5.2 Drought planning and water resources planning 962.5.3 A code for best practices: early action and risk management plans 982.5.4 Institutions involved in drought planning 992.5.4.1 Main issues and guidelines for the institutional analysis of drought planning 992.5.4.2 The legal framework and complexity of institutional systems 1002.5.4.3 Examples of legal provisions in Spain 1032.5.4.4 Key aspects of drought management in mediterranean countries 1062.5.5 Conclusions 108Acknowledgements 108References 1092.6 Indicators of Social Vulnerability to Drought 111Gustavo Naumann, Hugo Carrão, and Paulo Barbosa2.6.1 Introduction 1112.6.2 Theoretical framework 1122.6.3 Selection of policy‐relevant variables 1152.6.3.1 Normalisation of variables to a common baseline 1172.6.3.2 Composite indicator of drought vulnerability (weighting and aggregation) 1182.6.3.3 Sensitivity analysis and model validation 1222.6.4 Application: Drought risk assessment in Latin America 123References 1242.7 Drought Vulnerability Under Climate Change: A Case Study in La Plata Basin 127Alvaro Sordo‐Ward, María D. Bejarano, Luis Garrote, Victor Asenjo, and Paola Bianucci2.7.1 Introduction 1272.7.2 Methods 1282.7.2.1 Framework 1282.7.2.2 Data and regional extent 1292.7.2.3 Data analysis 1302.7.2.4 Drought indicator used 1322.7.2.5 Limitations of the methodology 1322.7.3 Results and discussion 1332.7.3.1 Drought characterisation: Changes in rainfall 1332.7.3.2 Drought characterisation: Changes in SPEI drought indicator 1342.7.3.3 Graphical user interface as a tool for drought management 1402.7.4 Conclusions 140Acknowledgements 144References 1442.8 Drought Insurance 147Teresa Maestro, Alberto Garrido, and María Bielza2.8.1 Introduction 1472.8.2 Main difficulties and challenges in developing drought insurance 1482.8.3 Types of drought insurance 1492.8.4 Drought indemnity–based insurance 1502.8.5 Drought index–based insurance 1502.8.5.1 Meteorological‐based index insurance 1542.8.5.2 Remote sensing–based index insurance 1552.8.5.3 Hydrological drought index insurance 1552.8.6 Conclusions 157Acknowledgements 157References 157PART THREE: DROUGHT MANAGEMENT EXPERIENCES AND LINKS TO STAKEHOLDERS 1633.9 Drought and Water Management in The Netherlands 165Wouter Wolters, Henny A.J. Van Lanen, and Francien van Luijn3.9.1 General context 1653.9.1.1 Physical and socioeconomic systems 1653.9.1.2 Scenarios 1673.9.1.3 Drought characteristics: Frequency and severity 1683.9.1.4 Current management framework 1693.9.2 Drought risk and mitigation 1703.9.2.1 Vulnerability to drought 1703.9.2.2 Existing framework for drought management 1713.9.2.3 Stakeholder involvement in drought management 1743.9.2.4 Example of the 2015 drought monitoring and management 1753.9.2.5 Comparison of the 2015 drought with 2003 1773.9.2.6 Responses to past drought events and assessment of their effects on drought impact mitigation 1783.9.3 Conclusions – Future needs 1793.9.3.1 Conclusions 1793.9.3.2 Preparing for the future through establishing ‘service levels’ 1803.9.3.3 International dimension 180References 1813.10 Improving Drought Preparedness in Portugal 183Susana Dias, Vanda Acácio, Carlo Bifulco, and Francisco Rego3.10.1 Local context 1833.10.1.1 Climate and land use 1833.10.1.2 Water resources – use and consumption 1843.10.1.3 Past drought events, impacts, and forecasted trends 1863.10.1.4 Lessons learned from the 2004–2006 drought event 1883.10.2 Current approach to drought monitoring and management 1893.10.2.1 Drought monitoring systems 1893.10.2.2 Existing framework for drought management 1893.10.3 Improving drought preparedness and drought management 1903.10.3.1 Stakeholder involvement in drought management 1903.10.3.2 Vulnerability to drought: Analysis of SPIs as indicators of future drought impacts 1913.10.3.3 Strengthening national drought information systems 1933.10.3.4 Policy gaps and measures to improve drought preparedness and management 1933.10.4 Conclusions 195Acknowledgements 195References 1963.11 Drought Management in the Po River Basin, Italy 201Dario Musolino, Claudia Vezzani, and Antonio Massarutto3.11.1 General context 2013.11.1.1 Physical and socioeconomic system 2013.11.1.2 Drought characteristics and water availability 2033.11.2 Drought risk and mitigation 2063.11.2.1 Vulnerability to drought 2063.11.2.2 The framework for drought management: Current situation and on‐going changes 2083.11.2.3 Policy responses to the 2003 drought event: A qualitative assessment 2103.11.3 Conclusions 213References 2143.12 Experiences in Proactive and Participatory Drought Planning and Management in the Jucar River Basin, Spain 217Joaquin Andreu, David Haro, Abel Solera, and Javier Paredes3.12.1 Introduction 2173.12.2 Droughts characterisation 2193.12.2.1 Past droughts 2193.12.2.2 Future droughts 2233.12.3 Methods for drought vulnerability and risk assessment 2233.12.3.1 Assessment of vulnerability during the planning phase 2243.12.3.2 Assessment of vulnerability during the management phase (Real time) 2243.12.3.3 Use of DSSs for drought management in real time 2263.12.4 Proactive and participatory drought management 2283.12.4.1 Culture of adaptation to droughts in the JRBD 2283.12.4.2 Institutional, legal, and normative framework for drought planning and management 2303.12.4.3 Measures included in the SDP 2323.12.4.4 Responses to past drought events and assessment of their effects on drought impact mitigation 2323.12.5 Conclusions 234Acknowledgements 235References 2353.13 Drought Risk and Management in Syros, Greece 239Dionysis Assimacopoulos and Eleni Kampragou3.13.1 Introduction 2393.13.2 Droughts in Syros 2403.13.2.1 Past droughts 2403.13.2.2 Future droughts 2423.13.2.3 Key messages 2423.13.3 Drought risk and mitigation 2433.13.4 Lessons learnt – the need for participatory drought management 246Acknowledgements 247References 248Index 251