JOHN E. GIBSON, Ph.D., was the Commonwealth Distinguished Professor of Systems Management at the School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville. He served as Dean of Engineering at the University of Virginia and at Oakland University. Dr. Gibson was working on this book at the time of his death. WILLIAM T. SCHERER, Ph.D., is a Professor in the Department of Systems and Information Engineering at the University of Virginia, where he teaches courses on systems engineering. Dr. Scherer was a student in Dr. Gibson's classes and later became a colleague. Dr. Scherer has authored and co-authored numerous publications on intelligent decision support systems, stochastic control, systems engineering education, and financial engineering. He is a former President of IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Society and has won numerous teaching awards while at the University of Virginia. WILLIAM F. GIBSON, MBA, MPA, is the Senior Managing Director and President of IVY Creek Associates, an international consulting firm for global asset managers, brokerage firms, and banks. He was Global Chief Operating Officer at ING Investment Management, and the Head of Securities and Fund Services Operations—EMEA at Citigroup. Mr. Gibson has led the infrastructure groups of global financial services firms, and is actively engaged in developing and applying new technologies in those domains. He has also been an executive lecturer at the S.C. Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University. MICHAEL C. SMITH, Ph.D., is the Executive Director of the Accelerated Masters Program in Systems Engineering at the University of Virginia. Prior to joining the University of Virginia, Dr. Smith was a Senior Scientist at Science Applications International Corporation (now Leidos) and also served on the Industrial Engineering faculties at Oregon State University and the University of Missouri. In addition to directing the University of Virginia's Accelerated Master's Program, Dr. Smith teaches an introductory course in systems thinking and the systems approach, drawing on many of the case studies in this book.

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• Preface ixOriginal Preface from Jack Gibson xiiiAcknowledgments xvAbout the Companion Website xviiPart One: Primer1. Introduction 31.1 What is a System? 41.2 Terminology Confusion 61.3 Systems Analysis Equals Operations Research Plus Policy Analysis 101.4 Attributes of Large-Scale Systems 111.5 Transportation Systems: An Example of a Large-Scale System 131.6 Systems Integration 161.7 What Makes a “Systems Analysis” Different? 171.8 Distant Roots of Systems Analysis 191.9 Immediate Precursors to Systems Analysis 201.10 Development of Systems Analysis as a Distinct Discipline: The Influence of RAND 23References 262. Six Major Phases of Systems Analysis 282.1 The Systems Analysis Method: Six Major Phases 282.1.1 Determine Goals 282.1.2 Establish Criteria for Ranking Alternative Candidates 302.1.3 Develop Alternative Solutions 312.1.4 Rank Alternatives 322.1.5 Iterate 342.1.6 Action 352.2 The Goal-Centered or Top-Down Approach 352.3 The Index of Performance Concept 412.4 Developing Alternative Scenarios 452.5 Ranking Alternatives 472.6 Iteration and the “Error-Embracing” Approach 472.7 The Action Phase: The Life Cycle of a System 51References 533. Goal Development 553.1 Seven Steps in Goal Development 553.2 On Generalizing the Question 593.3 The Descriptive Scenario 613.4 The Normative Scenario 633.5 The Axiological Component 633.6 Developing an Objectives Tree 673.7 Validate 733.8 Iterate 74References 754. The Index of Performance 764.1 Introduction 764.2 Desirable Characteristics for an Index of Performance 784.3 Economic Criteria 814.4 Four Common Criteria of Economic Efficiency 834.5 Is There a Problem with Multiple Criteria? 864.6 What is Wrong with the B–C Ratio? 904.7 Can IRR be Fixed? 924.8 Expected Monetary Value 944.9 Nonmonetary Performance Indices 96References 995. Develop and Evaluate Alternative Candidate Solutions 1015.1 Introduction 1015.2 The Classical Approach to Creativity 1015.3 Concepts in Creativity 1035.4 Brainstorming 1045.5 Brainwriting 1075.6 Dynamic Confrontation 1095.7 Zwicky’s Morphological Box 1105.8 The Options Field/Options Profile Approach 1125.9 Computer Creativity 1155.10 Trade Study Methods 1165.11 Trade Study Example 120References 1276. The 10 Golden Rules of Systems Analysis 1306.1 Introduction 1306.2 Rule 1: There Always is a Client 1316.3 Rule 2: Your Client Does Not Understand His Own Problem 1326.4 Rule 3: The Original Problem Statement is too Specific: You Must Generalize the Problem to Give it Contextual Integrity 1336.5 Rule 4: The Client Does Not Understand the Concept of the Index of Performance 1356.6 Rule 5: You are the Analyst, Not the Decision Maker 1376.7 Rule 6: Meet the Time Deadline and the Cost Budget 1396.8 Rule 7: Take a Goal-Centered Approach to the Problem, not a Technology-Centered or Chronological Approach 1406.9 Rule 8: Non-users Must Be Considered in the Analysis and in the Final Recommendations 1416.10 Rule 9: The Universal Computer Model is a Fantasy 1436.11 Rule 10: The Role of Decision Maker in Public Systems is Often a Confused One 143References 145Part Two: Casebook Cases in Systems Engineering 149Introduction 149The Case Study Method 151What is a “Case”? 152Implementing the Case Study Method 152Chat Rooms and Polls 152In-Class Group Activities 153Case Study Assignments 153Peer Review 154The Case Studies 154Using Case Studies to Build Teamwork and Communications Skills 154Building the Systems Team 155Tips on Managing the Team 156How to Make an Effective Oral Presentation 157How to Write a Report 162Aligning Case Studies with the Ten Golden Rules of Systems Analysis 164To Winnebago or to not Winnebago? 164How can this Case be Used to Teach and Reinforce Systems Analysis? 169A Word about the Cases 170Validation of Learning: Evidence-Based Learning 170Sample Evaluation Instrument: Exam with Solutions 171Sample Evaluation Instrument: Exam without Solutions 176Case 1: Great Buys 183Case 2: Surf’s Up? 188Case 3: Extended Engineering Education 189Case 4: Systems Engineering Majors Proliferating 192Case 5: Motor Carrier Safety and Compliance 193Case 6: Is Getting There Half the Fun? 202Case 7: Is Getting There Half the Fun? (Revisited) 206Case 8: Which Camper Should We Choose? 210Case 9: Seat Belt Issue 217Case 10: Baseball Free Agent Draft—20xx 219Case 11: For the Birds? 221Case 12: Wal-Mart Crisis 222Case 13: Ocean Cleanup 224Case 14: BRAC 226Case 15: Opportunity? 227Case 16: Risky Business 228Case 17: Corporate Headquarters 230Case 18: The Ad Forecaster 231Case 19: For the Birds (Revisited) 232Case 20: Best MBA? 234Case 21: Health Insurance? What Health Insurance? 235Case 22: Social Media in Emergency Management 237Case 23: Which Bridges to Repair? 241Case 24: Going-to-the-Sun Road Rehabilitation Project 245Case 25: HEV versus HOV? 256Case 26: “Show Me the Money!” 259Case 27: The Collections Subsidiary 261Case 28: MNB One Credit Card Portfolio 266Case 29: Select Collections 273Case 30: To Distance or Not to Distance? Is That the Question? 278Index 279

JOHN E. GIBSON, Ph.D., was the Commonwealth Distinguished Professor of Systems Management at the School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville. He served as Dean of Engineering at the University of Virginia and at Oakland University. Dr. Gibson was working on this book at the time of his death. WILLIAM T. SCHERER, Ph.D., is a Professor in the Department of Systems and Information Engineering at the University of Virginia, where he teaches courses on systems engineering. Dr. Scherer was a student in Dr. Gibson's classes and later became a colleague. Dr. Scherer has authored and co-authored numerous publications on intelligent decision support systems, stochastic control, systems engineering education, and financial engineering. He is a former President of IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Society and has won numerous teaching awards while at the University of Virginia. WILLIAM F. GIBSON, MBA, MPA, is the Senior Managing Director and President of IVY Creek Associates, an international consulting firm for global asset managers, brokerage firms, and banks. He was Global Chief Operating Officer at ING Investment Management, and the Head of Securities and Fund Services Operations—EMEA at Citigroup. Mr. Gibson has led the infrastructure groups of global financial services firms, and is actively engaged in developing and applying new technologies in those domains. He has also been an executive lecturer at the S.C. Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University. MICHAEL C. SMITH, Ph.D., is the Executive Director of the Accelerated Masters Program in Systems Engineering at the University of Virginia. Prior to joining the University of Virginia, Dr. Smith was a Senior Scientist at Science Applications International Corporation (now Leidos) and also served on the Industrial Engineering faculties at Oregon State University and the University of Missouri. In addition to directing the University of Virginia's Accelerated Master's Program, Dr. Smith teaches an introductory course in systems thinking and the systems approach, drawing on many of the case studies in this book.

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• Preface ixOriginal Preface from Jack Gibson xiiiAcknowledgments xvAbout the Companion Website xviiPart One: Primer1. Introduction 31.1 What is a System? 41.2 Terminology Confusion 61.3 Systems Analysis Equals Operations Research Plus Policy Analysis 101.4 Attributes of Large-Scale Systems 111.5 Transportation Systems: An Example of a Large-Scale System 131.6 Systems Integration 161.7 What Makes a “Systems Analysis” Different? 171.8 Distant Roots of Systems Analysis 191.9 Immediate Precursors to Systems Analysis 201.10 Development of Systems Analysis as a Distinct Discipline: The Influence of RAND 23References 262. Six Major Phases of Systems Analysis 282.1 The Systems Analysis Method: Six Major Phases 282.1.1 Determine Goals 282.1.2 Establish Criteria for Ranking Alternative Candidates 302.1.3 Develop Alternative Solutions 312.1.4 Rank Alternatives 322.1.5 Iterate 342.1.6 Action 352.2 The Goal-Centered or Top-Down Approach 352.3 The Index of Performance Concept 412.4 Developing Alternative Scenarios 452.5 Ranking Alternatives 472.6 Iteration and the “Error-Embracing” Approach 472.7 The Action Phase: The Life Cycle of a System 51References 533. Goal Development 553.1 Seven Steps in Goal Development 553.2 On Generalizing the Question 593.3 The Descriptive Scenario 613.4 The Normative Scenario 633.5 The Axiological Component 633.6 Developing an Objectives Tree 673.7 Validate 733.8 Iterate 74References 754. The Index of Performance 764.1 Introduction 764.2 Desirable Characteristics for an Index of Performance 784.3 Economic Criteria 814.4 Four Common Criteria of Economic Efficiency 834.5 Is There a Problem with Multiple Criteria? 864.6 What is Wrong with the B–C Ratio? 904.7 Can IRR be Fixed? 924.8 Expected Monetary Value 944.9 Nonmonetary Performance Indices 96References 995. Develop and Evaluate Alternative Candidate Solutions 1015.1 Introduction 1015.2 The Classical Approach to Creativity 1015.3 Concepts in Creativity 1035.4 Brainstorming 1045.5 Brainwriting 1075.6 Dynamic Confrontation 1095.7 Zwicky’s Morphological Box 1105.8 The Options Field/Options Profile Approach 1125.9 Computer Creativity 1155.10 Trade Study Methods 1165.11 Trade Study Example 120References 1276. The 10 Golden Rules of Systems Analysis 1306.1 Introduction 1306.2 Rule 1: There Always is a Client 1316.3 Rule 2: Your Client Does Not Understand His Own Problem 1326.4 Rule 3: The Original Problem Statement is too Specific: You Must Generalize the Problem to Give it Contextual Integrity 1336.5 Rule 4: The Client Does Not Understand the Concept of the Index of Performance 1356.6 Rule 5: You are the Analyst, Not the Decision Maker 1376.7 Rule 6: Meet the Time Deadline and the Cost Budget 1396.8 Rule 7: Take a Goal-Centered Approach to the Problem, not a Technology-Centered or Chronological Approach 1406.9 Rule 8: Non-users Must Be Considered in the Analysis and in the Final Recommendations 1416.10 Rule 9: The Universal Computer Model is a Fantasy 1436.11 Rule 10: The Role of Decision Maker in Public Systems is Often a Confused One 143References 145Part Two: Casebook Cases in Systems Engineering 149Introduction 149The Case Study Method 151What is a “Case”? 152Implementing the Case Study Method 152Chat Rooms and Polls 152In-Class Group Activities 153Case Study Assignments 153Peer Review 154The Case Studies 154Using Case Studies to Build Teamwork and Communications Skills 154Building the Systems Team 155Tips on Managing the Team 156How to Make an Effective Oral Presentation 157How to Write a Report 162Aligning Case Studies with the Ten Golden Rules of Systems Analysis 164To Winnebago or to not Winnebago? 164How can this Case be Used to Teach and Reinforce Systems Analysis? 169A Word about the Cases 170Validation of Learning: Evidence-Based Learning 170Sample Evaluation Instrument: Exam with Solutions 171Sample Evaluation Instrument: Exam without Solutions 176Case 1: Great Buys 183Case 2: Surf’s Up? 188Case 3: Extended Engineering Education 189Case 4: Systems Engineering Majors Proliferating 192Case 5: Motor Carrier Safety and Compliance 193Case 6: Is Getting There Half the Fun? 202Case 7: Is Getting There Half the Fun? (Revisited) 206Case 8: Which Camper Should We Choose? 210Case 9: Seat Belt Issue 217Case 10: Baseball Free Agent Draft—20xx 219Case 11: For the Birds? 221Case 12: Wal-Mart Crisis 222Case 13: Ocean Cleanup 224Case 14: BRAC 226Case 15: Opportunity? 227Case 16: Risky Business 228Case 17: Corporate Headquarters 230Case 18: The Ad Forecaster 231Case 19: For the Birds (Revisited) 232Case 20: Best MBA? 234Case 21: Health Insurance? What Health Insurance? 235Case 22: Social Media in Emergency Management 237Case 23: Which Bridges to Repair? 241Case 24: Going-to-the-Sun Road Rehabilitation Project 245Case 25: HEV versus HOV? 256Case 26: “Show Me the Money!” 259Case 27: The Collections Subsidiary 261Case 28: MNB One Credit Card Portfolio 266Case 29: Select Collections 273Case 30: To Distance or Not to Distance? Is That the Question? 278Index 279

JOHN E. GIBSON, Ph.D., was the Commonwealth Distinguished Professor of Systems Management at the School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville. He served as Dean of Engineering at the University of Virginia and at Oakland University. Dr. Gibson was working on this book at the time of his death. WILLIAM T. SCHERER, Ph.D., is a Professor in the Department of Systems and Information Engineering at the University of Virginia, where he teaches courses on systems engineering. Dr. Scherer was a student in Dr. Gibson's classes and later became a colleague. Dr. Scherer has authored and co-authored numerous publications on intelligent decision support systems, stochastic control, systems engineering education, and financial engineering. He is a former President of IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Society and has won numerous teaching awards while at the University of Virginia. WILLIAM F. GIBSON, MBA, MPA, is the Senior Managing Director and President of IVY Creek Associates, an international consulting firm for global asset managers, brokerage firms, and banks. He was Global Chief Operating Officer at ING Investment Management, and the Head of Securities and Fund Services Operations—EMEA at Citigroup. Mr. Gibson has led the infrastructure groups of global financial services firms, and is actively engaged in developing and applying new technologies in those domains. He has also been an executive lecturer at the S.C. Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University. MICHAEL C. SMITH, Ph.D., is the Executive Director of the Accelerated Masters Program in Systems Engineering at the University of Virginia. Prior to joining the University of Virginia, Dr. Smith was a Senior Scientist at Science Applications International Corporation (now Leidos) and also served on the Industrial Engineering faculties at Oregon State University and the University of Missouri. In addition to directing the University of Virginia's Accelerated Master's Program, Dr. Smith teaches an introductory course in systems thinking and the systems approach, drawing on many of the case studies in this book.

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• Preface ixOriginal Preface from Jack Gibson xiiiAcknowledgments xvAbout the Companion Website xviiPart One: Primer1. Introduction 31.1 What is a System? 41.2 Terminology Confusion 61.3 Systems Analysis Equals Operations Research Plus Policy Analysis 101.4 Attributes of Large-Scale Systems 111.5 Transportation Systems: An Example of a Large-Scale System 131.6 Systems Integration 161.7 What Makes a “Systems Analysis” Different? 171.8 Distant Roots of Systems Analysis 191.9 Immediate Precursors to Systems Analysis 201.10 Development of Systems Analysis as a Distinct Discipline: The Influence of RAND 23References 262. Six Major Phases of Systems Analysis 282.1 The Systems Analysis Method: Six Major Phases 282.1.1 Determine Goals 282.1.2 Establish Criteria for Ranking Alternative Candidates 302.1.3 Develop Alternative Solutions 312.1.4 Rank Alternatives 322.1.5 Iterate 342.1.6 Action 352.2 The Goal-Centered or Top-Down Approach 352.3 The Index of Performance Concept 412.4 Developing Alternative Scenarios 452.5 Ranking Alternatives 472.6 Iteration and the “Error-Embracing” Approach 472.7 The Action Phase: The Life Cycle of a System 51References 533. Goal Development 553.1 Seven Steps in Goal Development 553.2 On Generalizing the Question 593.3 The Descriptive Scenario 613.4 The Normative Scenario 633.5 The Axiological Component 633.6 Developing an Objectives Tree 673.7 Validate 733.8 Iterate 74References 754. The Index of Performance 764.1 Introduction 764.2 Desirable Characteristics for an Index of Performance 784.3 Economic Criteria 814.4 Four Common Criteria of Economic Efficiency 834.5 Is There a Problem with Multiple Criteria? 864.6 What is Wrong with the B–C Ratio? 904.7 Can IRR be Fixed? 924.8 Expected Monetary Value 944.9 Nonmonetary Performance Indices 96References 995. Develop and Evaluate Alternative Candidate Solutions 1015.1 Introduction 1015.2 The Classical Approach to Creativity 1015.3 Concepts in Creativity 1035.4 Brainstorming 1045.5 Brainwriting 1075.6 Dynamic Confrontation 1095.7 Zwicky’s Morphological Box 1105.8 The Options Field/Options Profile Approach 1125.9 Computer Creativity 1155.10 Trade Study Methods 1165.11 Trade Study Example 120References 1276. The 10 Golden Rules of Systems Analysis 1306.1 Introduction 1306.2 Rule 1: There Always is a Client 1316.3 Rule 2: Your Client Does Not Understand His Own Problem 1326.4 Rule 3: The Original Problem Statement is too Specific: You Must Generalize the Problem to Give it Contextual Integrity 1336.5 Rule 4: The Client Does Not Understand the Concept of the Index of Performance 1356.6 Rule 5: You are the Analyst, Not the Decision Maker 1376.7 Rule 6: Meet the Time Deadline and the Cost Budget 1396.8 Rule 7: Take a Goal-Centered Approach to the Problem, not a Technology-Centered or Chronological Approach 1406.9 Rule 8: Non-users Must Be Considered in the Analysis and in the Final Recommendations 1416.10 Rule 9: The Universal Computer Model is a Fantasy 1436.11 Rule 10: The Role of Decision Maker in Public Systems is Often a Confused One 143References 145Part Two: Casebook Cases in Systems Engineering 149Introduction 149The Case Study Method 151What is a “Case”? 152Implementing the Case Study Method 152Chat Rooms and Polls 152In-Class Group Activities 153Case Study Assignments 153Peer Review 154The Case Studies 154Using Case Studies to Build Teamwork and Communications Skills 154Building the Systems Team 155Tips on Managing the Team 156How to Make an Effective Oral Presentation 157How to Write a Report 162Aligning Case Studies with the Ten Golden Rules of Systems Analysis 164To Winnebago or to not Winnebago? 164How can this Case be Used to Teach and Reinforce Systems Analysis? 169A Word about the Cases 170Validation of Learning: Evidence-Based Learning 170Sample Evaluation Instrument: Exam with Solutions 171Sample Evaluation Instrument: Exam without Solutions 176Case 1: Great Buys 183Case 2: Surf’s Up? 188Case 3: Extended Engineering Education 189Case 4: Systems Engineering Majors Proliferating 192Case 5: Motor Carrier Safety and Compliance 193Case 6: Is Getting There Half the Fun? 202Case 7: Is Getting There Half the Fun? (Revisited) 206Case 8: Which Camper Should We Choose? 210Case 9: Seat Belt Issue 217Case 10: Baseball Free Agent Draft—20xx 219Case 11: For the Birds? 221Case 12: Wal-Mart Crisis 222Case 13: Ocean Cleanup 224Case 14: BRAC 226Case 15: Opportunity? 227Case 16: Risky Business 228Case 17: Corporate Headquarters 230Case 18: The Ad Forecaster 231Case 19: For the Birds (Revisited) 232Case 20: Best MBA? 234Case 21: Health Insurance? What Health Insurance? 235Case 22: Social Media in Emergency Management 237Case 23: Which Bridges to Repair? 241Case 24: Going-to-the-Sun Road Rehabilitation Project 245Case 25: HEV versus HOV? 256Case 26: “Show Me the Money!” 259Case 27: The Collections Subsidiary 261Case 28: MNB One Credit Card Portfolio 266Case 29: Select Collections 273Case 30: To Distance or Not to Distance? Is That the Question? 278Index 279