The nature of the economic cycle has been a long-standing problem for economists, given much attention by especially Malthus, Marx and Keynes. Key questions include: What are the causes of the economic cycle? Are the causes endogenous or exogenous? and Why is the economic cycle irregular? Economists’ views on these matters have differed, some concluding that governments can intervene effectively to stimulate economic growth, while others argue that government intervention is ineffective and even harmful. This book explores the theory of the economic cycle in relation to economic growth in China, and especially in relation to income distribution and the demand for consumer durables. The book concludes that the cause of the economic cycle is endogenous, that the periodic fluctuation of economic growth and its dynamic equilibrium are natural aspects of the growth of the economy, and it puts forward a new model of the economic cycle which confidently predicts the future trajectory of China’s economic growth.
