Rethinking Risk in National Security

Michael J. Mazarr is a Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, USA. The author of 12 books, he has been a professor and dean at the National War College, USA, a special assistant to the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), USA, and a defense aide on Capitol Hill.

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• 1. Risk, Judgment and Uncertainty.- 2. Defining Risk.- 3. Approaches to Risk in National Security.- 4. Risk and Uncertainty.- 5. Risk is What We Make of It.- 6. Indifferent to Consequences.- 7. The Swans to Worry About Are Gray.- 8. Risk Becomes Personalized.- 9. What You Don’t Know Can Destroy You: Ignorance and Correlated Risk.- 10. Risk, Incentives and Culture.- 11. The Role of Risk in Strategy.- 12. Outcome Assessment of the Emerging U.S. National Security Strategy.- 13. Principles of Effective Risk Management.- 14. Managing Uncertainty.