Art of Conjecture

Bertrand de Jouvene (1903-1987) was a French philosopher, political economist, and futurist known for his many works in political philosophy. He taught at many universities, including Oxford, Cambridge, Yale, and the University of California. Unlike many other French intellectuals at the time, de Jouvenel acknowledged the early twentieth-century movement of economic theory and welfare economics that emerged in the United States, United Kingdom, Italy, and Austria. His many books include The Pure Theory of Politics and The Ethics of Redistribution. Daniel J. Mahoney is chair and professor of political science at Assumption College, Worcester, Massachusetts. He has been the recipient of the Prix Raymond Aron, is currently associate editor of Perspectives on Political Science, and book review editor of Society. His books include The Liberal Political Science of Raymond Aron, Bertrand de Jouvenel: The Conservative Liberal and the Illusions of Modernity and De Gaulle: Statesmanship, Grandeur, and Modern Democracy.

• Introduction 1 On the Nature of the Future 2 A Need of Our Species 3 Terminology Part I Personal Destiny 4 The Project 5 The Conditional 6 The Future as an Object of Knowledge 7 The Principle of Uncertainty Part II Of Predictions 8 Predictions: I 9 Predictions: II 10 Historical Prediction and Scientific Prediction Part III Ways of Conceiving the Future 11 Process and Action 12 The Changing Scene 13 Conjectures and Decisions 14 The Pragmatism of Conjecture and a Few Consequences Part IV Quantitative Predictions 15 On Quantification 16 Short-Term Economic Forecasting 17 Long-Term Economic Forecasting and Its Social Aspects Part V Toward the Surmising Forum 18 The Political Order and Foreseeability 19 The Forecasting of Ideas 20 The Surmising Forum