Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts

Noel Hendrickson is associate professor and a founding faculty member of the Intelligence Analysis Program at James Madison University. He earned a PhD in Philosophy from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and has over a decade of experience teaching reasoning methods to aspiring intelligence analysts.

Dr. Hendrickson's book is a very much needed "how-to" for analysts, and their managers, who in this data-rich and tool-driven environment have too often lost the most important analytic skill: the ability to reason clearly. Hendrickson has developed a new vision specifically for the challenges facing intelligence analysis in applying reasoning to intelligence, in particular in futures analysis. This book should become a standard text for course on Logical Argumentation in Intelligence Analysis; I will use it in mine.

• AcknowledgementsAbout the AuthorIntroductionPart I: The Background to Reasoning for Intelligence AnalystsChapter 1: An Introduction to ReasoningChapter 2: An Introduction to Intelligence AnalysisChapter 3: An Introduction to the Information AgePart II: The Theory of Reasoning for Intelligence AnalystsParadigms of Reasoning in GeneralChapter 4: Important Extant Approaches to Reasoning The Structural, Informal Logical, and Elements of the Mind ParadigmsChapter 5: The Multidimensional Approach to ReasoningIntroducing the Personal, Procedural, and Problem-Specific DimensionsChapter 6: The Personal Dimension of ReasoningIdeal Reasoning as Virtues to EmbodyChapter 7: The Procedural Dimension of ReasoningIdeal Reasoning as Rules to FollowChapter 8: The Problem-Specific Dimension of ReasoningIdeal Reasoning as Questions to AskPart III: The Practice of Reasoning for Intelligence AnalystsMethods of Reasoning in GeneralChapter 9: How to Know Your Personal Characteristics as an AnalystThe Method of “Analytic Balance Check”Chapter 10: How to Know Your Process of Analysis The Method of “Analytic Process Reflection” Chapter 11: How to Know the Right Problem for Analysis The Method of “Analytic Problem Classification” Part IV: The Theory of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence AnalystsParadigms of Reasoning About “What is Happening?”Chapter 12: Important Extant Approaches to Hypothesis DevelopmentThe Falsificationist, Bayesian, and Explanationist ParadigmsChapter 13: The Multidimensional Approach to Hypothesis DevelopmentIntroducing the Idea, Information, and Implication DimensionsPart V: The Practice of Hypothesis Development for Intelligence AnalystsMethods of Reasoning About “What is Happening?”Chapter 14: How to Generate New Ideas The Method of “Dialectical Hypothesis Generation” Chapter 15: How to Develop the Most Probable HypothesisThe Method of “Triadic Hypothesis Development” Chapter 16: How to Recognize What Has Been Taken For GrantedThe Method of “Underlying Assumptions Triangulation” Part VI: The Theory of Causal Analysis for Intelligence AnalystsParadigms of Reasoning About “Why This is Happening?”Chapter 17: Important Extant Approaches to Causal AnalysisThe Probabilistic, Interventionist, and Systems Dynamics ParadigmsChapter 18: The Multidimensional Approach to Causal AnalysisIntroducing the Sequence, System, and Surprise DimensionsPart VII: The Practice of Causal Analysis for Intelligence AnalystsMethods of Reasoning About “Why This is Happening?”Chapter 19: How to Identify Individual ConnectionsThe Method of “Causal Influence Classification”Chapter 20: How to Identify Collective ConnectionsThe Method of “Causal Loop Diagramming”Chapter 21: How to Identify Unexpected Connections(And How Something is Partly an Unintended Consequence)The Method of “Background Shift Analysis”Part VIII: The Theory of Futures Exploration for Intelligence AnalystsParadigms of Reasoning About “When and Where Might This Change?”Chapter 22: Important Extant Approaches to Futures ExplorationThe Forecasting, Megatrend, and Scenario ParadigmsChapter 23: The Multidimensional Approach to Futures ExplorationIntroducing the Origin, Outreach, and Outcome DimensionsPart IX: The Practice of Futures Exploration for Intelligence AnalystsMethods of Reasoning About “When and Where Might This Change?”Chapter 24: How to Find the Most Plausible Origin of a Future PossibilityThe Method of “Convergent Scenario Development”(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage I)Chapter 25: How to Integrate a Futures Estimate into the Bigger Picture (And Foresee Possible Unintended Consequences)The Method of “Ripple Effect Analysis”(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage II)Chapter 26: How to Identify the Most Plausible Future OutcomesThe Method of “Divergent Scenario Development”(Future-Directed Counterfactual Reasoning, Stage III)Part X: The Theory of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence AnalystsParadigms of Reasoning About “How Can the Client Respond to It?”Chapter 27: Important Extant Approaches to Strategy AssessmentThe Risk, Ignorance, and Game Theory ParadigmsChapter 28: The Multidimensional Approach to Futures ExplorationIntroducing the Environment, Effect, and Expectation DimensionsPart XI: The Practice of Strategy Assessment for Intelligence AnalystsMethods of Reasoning About “How Can the Client Respond to It?”Chapter 29: How to Support Decision-Making Without Known Outcomes or ExpectationsThe Method of “Strategic Relevance Check” Chapter 30: How to Support Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Unknown ExpectationsThe Method of “Decision Significance Comparison” Chapter 31: How to Support Decision-Making About Known Outcomes With Known ExpectationsThe Method of “Expectation Impact Analysis” ConclusionAbout the Author