Peace and Conflict 2017

EDITORSDavid A. Backer is a Research Associate Professor and Assistant Director of the Center for International Development and Conflict Management, as well as Director of the Minor in International Development and Conflict Management, at the University of Maryland. His research focuses on conflict dynamics and post-conflict processes. He is Co-Director of the West Africa Transitional Justice Project and the Constituency-Level Elections Archive.Ravi Bhavnani　is a Professor at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (Switzerland). His research explores the micro-foundations of violence, examining the endogenous relationships among the characteristics, beliefs, and interests of relevant actors, as well as social mechanisms and emergent structures that shape attitudes, decision making, and behavior. He uses agent-based modeling and disaggregated empirical data to link theoretical conjectures to concrete evidence, thereby identifying processes that tend to generate specific outcomes.Paul K. Huth is a Professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland and Director of the Center for International Development and Conflict Management. He is also editor of the Journal of Conflict Resolution. He has published books and widely in journals on subjects related to the study of international conflict and war, including deterrence behavior, crisis decision making, territorial disputes, the democratic peace, international law and dispute resolution, and the civilian consequences of war.

If you are looking for a comprehensive, accessible and thought-provoking overview of current research trends in political violence, this is the book to turn to.—Nils Weidmann, Professor of Political Science, University of Konstanz, GermanyPeace and Conflict 2016, as with its predecessors, proves to be an invaluable source of up-to-date information on conflicts around the world. Various facets of political violence and their respective recent trends are documented in detail. New trends and challenges in conflict research are admirably discussed, as are traditional and more recent attempts in mitigating conflicts, from peacekeeping missions to criminal justice. Combining chapters on these themes written by the leading scholars in the field makes this volume a must-have for scholars and practitioners alike. — Simon Hug, Professor of Political Science, University of Geneva, SwitzerlandPraise for earlier editions:"Truth and data are the first casualties of armed conflict. Peace and Conflict 2014 provides a very useful and accessible overview of key trends and themes, begins to address some of the burning issues in the field, and helps put risks into perspective."—Tilman Brück, Director, International Security and Development Center, GermanyPeace and Conflict 2012 was a CHOICE Recommended title."Too much of the writing on international affairs is long on opinions and short on facts. Peace andConflict is the rare exception. Its clear presentations of evidence and analyses help to better inform discussions about the most pressing security challenges in today’s world."—Fareed Zakaria, Host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS"An essential tool for scholars and policymakers seeking the facts behind the headlines about thenature and extent of conflict around the world."—Vartan Gregorian, President, Carnegie Corporation of New York"A tour de force!"—The Honorable Samuel Lewis, Past President, United States Institute of Peace

• 1 Introduction to Peace and Conflict 2017 David A. Backer, Ravi Bhavnani, and Paul K. Huth 2 Generalizing Findings from Micro-Level Research on Peace and Conflict: Challengesand Solutions Karsten Donnay, Andrew M. Linke, and Ravi Bhavnani 3 Tracing Armed Conflict over Time: A Reversal of the Recent Decline? Håvard Strand and Halvard Buhaug4 The Geography of Organized Armed Violence around the World Erik Melander, David A. Backer, and Eric Dunford 5 Spatial Patterns of Violence against Civilians Hanne Fjelde, Lisa Hultman, Margareta Sollenberg, and Ralph Sundberg6 The Size of Rebel and State Armed Forces in Internal Conflicts: Measurementand Implications Jacob Aronson and Paul K. Huth 7 The Prevalence of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence: When, Where and By Whom? Ragnhild Nordås 8 Democracy, Democratization, and Civil War Suthan Krishnarajan, Jørgen Møller, Lasse Lykke Rørbæk, and Svend-Erik Skaaning 9 Evolution of Global Terrorism: The Growing Lethality of Attacks Gary LaFree and Laura Dugan 10 Are Global Human Rights Conditions Static or Improving? Peter Haschke and Mark Gibney 11 The Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger 2017: A New Methodology and Ranking ofCountries on Forecasted Risks David A. Backer, Jacob Aronson, and Paul K. Huth 12 Refugees and Conflict Diffusion Seraina Rüegger 13 Armed Conflicts Active in 2015 Margareta Sollenberg 14 Multilateral Peacekeeping Operations Active in 2015 Deniz Cil 15 Criminal Justice for Conflict-Related Violations: Developments during 2015 Anupma L. Kulkarni