Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence

Bruce Garvey, MBA, PhD, advises and consults organisations facing high levels of uncertainty. He addresses decision behaviour pertaining to foresight, creativity and innovation, scenario planning, and systems uncertainties. He has 40 years’ experience within the commercial arena, in staff and operational posts in the UK, Europe and the Middle East. He has published books and papers and made presentations covering the Uncertainty domain.Adam D.M. Svendsen, PhD, is an established international intelligence and defence strategist, educator (Salamanca and Georgetown), researcher, analyst, adviser and consultant. Multi-sector experienced to a senior level, over the years his research and educator work has been pursued across Europe, Scandinavia, North America and Canada. He has authored several publications, such as numerous articles, chapters, policy & strategy briefs, and four books.

• Generating Cyber Intelligence (CYBINT) scenarios & solutions to address uncertainty for decision-advantage: Using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis.- A Macro Cyber Scenario Case Study using Intelligence Engineering & Strategic Options Analysis Methods.- Examining the Landscape of Unauthorised Cyber Access (with reference to POSTnote #684).- Intelligence Engineering-led set-up of generic Strategic Options Analysis Problem to Solution Spaces: Cyber example demonstration.- More than Semantics? Communication of (Un)certainty via ‘Estimative/Probabilistic Language’.- Estimative/Probabilistic Language - Part II: Expanding the Range of Scenario Options.- Scoping ‘Digital Twins’ in intelligence & strategic foresight projects.- Generative-AI Pilot for Problem Spaces: Can ChatGPT help develop Scenarios?.- An Outline for an Interrogative/Prompt Library to help improve output quality from Generative-AI Datasets.- Prompt-engineering testing ChatGPT4 & Bard for assessing Generative-AI efficacy to support decision-making.- Can Generative-AI (ChatGPT and Bard) Be Used as Red Team Avatars in Developing Foresight Scenarios?.- Realising Foresight Intelligence (FORINT) - Advancing an Intelligence-derived Foresight Framework.- The Role of the Scenario and its Reassessment.- Advancing a New Methodological Process.- Process implications – Current software enhancements, including increasing levels of AI.