Ambar Narayan – författare

Economists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks will affect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easily available when crises strike. But policy action requires not only understanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifying which households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) the crisis. A popular solution is to extrapolate the welfare impact of a shock from the historical response of income or consumption poverty to changes in output, by estimating an 'elasticity' of poverty to growth. Although this method provides an estimate for the aggregate poverty impact of a macro shock, it has limited value for analysts and policymakers alike. Aggregate numbers are useful to capture the attention of policymakers and the international community, but in the absence of any information on who is affected and to what extent, provide little guidance on what actions need to be taken. This volume outlines a more comprehensive approach to the problem, showcasing a microsimulation model, developed in response to demand from World Bank staff working in countries and country governments in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Starting with the idea of using simple macroeconomic projections as the 'macro linkages' to a micro behavioral model built from household data, the model was conceptualized, refined and tested in a diverse mix of countries: Bangladesh, Philippines, Mexico, Poland and Mongolia. The results fed into country policy dialogue and lending operations of Bank teams, as well as various reports, research papers and briefs.

We have long known that a person's chance of success in life is deeply influenced by early access to education, health services, safe water, and nutritious food. This in turn improves the likelihood that a child can live up to his or her human potential and pursue a rewarding life. As Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) enters its 20th year of unprecedented high economic growth and hopes continue to rise, its citizens increasingly wonder if these more hopeful economic times will translate into a better future for themselves and their families.This book - the first of its kind in SSA - documents and analyses how opportunities have changed over the past decade in 20 countries that are home to at least 7 in 10 African children. It finds that improving children's access to key services appears to be possible even in the poorest countries. And in most cases where progress has been rapid, policy initiatives have made a difference, bringing services to citizens and compensating for the inherent disadvantages they would otherwise have faced. The findings in this book remind us of the significant progress Sub-Saharan African countries have made in the last several decades, as well as the challenges that remain in ending extreme poverty and laying the foundations for shared prosperity.

Simulating Distributional Impacts of Macro-dynamics: Theory and Practical Applications is a comprehensive guide for analyzing and understanding the effects of macroeconomic shocks on income and consumption distribution, as well as using the ADePT Simulation Module. Since real-time micro data is rarely available, the Simulation Module (part of the ADePT economic analysis software) takes advantage of historical household surveys to estimate how current or proposed macro changes might impact household and individuals welfare.Using examples from different economic and social contexts, the book explains macro-micro linkages in an easy and intuitive way. After developing a sound theoretical foundation, readers are then shown how to explore their own scenarios using the Simulation Module. Step-by-step instructions illustrate data entry and show how to make adjustments using the Module's options. Exercises present how different sections of the simulation process operate independently.This book will be a valuable reference for analysts needing to evaluate the potential impact of structural reforms and to generate projections for hypothetical scenarios. Results created by the Simulation Module will be helpful in informing governmental policymaking.

Fair Progress? Economic Mobility across Generations will look at an issue that has gotten much attention in the developed world, but with, for the first time, new data and analysis covering most of the developing world.The analysis looks at whether those born in poverty or in prosperity are destined to remain in the same economic circumstances into which they were born and looks back over a half a century at whether children's lives are better or worse than their parents' in different parts of the world. It suggests local, national, and global actions and policies that can help break the cycle of poverty, paving the way for the next generation to realize their potential and improve their lives.

Structural inequality is rooted in laws, institutions and practices which create advantages for a few but disadvantages for many. The report proposes a triple-pronged policy framework aimed at supporting productive capacity, creating jobs, and leveraging fair fiscal policy and state effectiveness to invest in people, firms, and farms.