Anthony C Atkinson - Böcker

Randomised Response-Adaptive Designs in Clinical Trials presents methods for the randomised allocation of treatments to patients in sequential clinical trials. Emphasizing the practical application of clinical trial designs, the book is designed for medical and applied statisticians, clinicians, and statisticians in training. After introducing clinical trials in drug development, the authors assess a simple adaptive design for binary responses without covariates. They discuss randomisation and covariate balance in normally distributed responses and cover many important response-adaptive designs for binary responses. The book then develops response-adaptive designs for continuous and longitudinal responses, optimum designs with covariates, and response-adaptive designs with covariates. It also covers response-adaptive designs that are derived by optimising an objective function subject to constraints on the variance of estimated parametric functions. The concluding chapter explores future directions in the development of adaptive designs.

This book is concerned with data in which the observations are independent and in which the response is multivariate. Anthony Atkinson has been Professor of Statistics at the London School of Economics since 1989. Before that he was a Professor at Imperial College, London. He is the author of Plots, Transformations, and Regression, co-author of Optimum Experimental Designs, and joint editor of The Fascination of Statistics, a volume celebrating the centenary of the International Statistical Institute. Professor Atkinson has served as editor of The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B and as associate editor of Biometrika and Technometrics. He has published well over 100 articles in these and other journals including The Annals of Statistics, Biometrics, The Journal of the American Statistical Association, and Statistics and Computing. Marco Riani, after receiving his Ph.D. in Statistics in 1995 from the University of Florence, joined the Faculty of Economics at Parma University as postdoctoral fellow. In 1997 he won the prize for the best Italian Ph.D. thesis in Statistics. He is currently Associate Professor of Statistics in the University of Parma.He has published in Technometrics, The Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, The Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, The Journal of Forecasting, Environmetrics, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, Metron, and other journals.

Why We Wrote This Book This book is about using graphs to explore and model continuous multi­ variate data. Such data are often modelled using the multivariate normal distribution and, indeed, there is a literatme of weighty statistical tomes presenting the mathematical theory of this activity. Our book is very dif­ ferent. Although we use the methods described in these books, we focus on ways of exploring whether the data do indeed have a normal distribution. We emphasize outlier detection, transformations to normality and the de­ tection of clusters and unsuspected influential subsets. We then quantify the effect of these departures from normality on procedures such as dis­ crimination and duster analysis. The normal distribution is central to our book because, subject to our exploration of departures, it provides useful models for many sets of data. However, the standard estimates of the parameters, especially the covari­ ance matrix of the observations, are highly sensitive to the presence of outliers. This is both a blessing and a curse. It is a blessing because, if we estimate the parameters with the outliers excluded, their effect is appre­ ciable and apparent if we then include them for estimation. It is however a curse because it can be hard to detect which observations are outliers. We use the forward search for this purpose.

The International Statistical Institute was founded in 1885 and is therefore one of the world's oldest international scientific societies. The field of statistics is still expanding rapidly and possesses a rich variety of applications in many areas of human activity such as science, government, business, industry, and everyday affairs. In consequence, the celebration of the Institute's centenary in 1985 is of considerable interest not only to statisticians but also more widely to the international scientific community. As part of its centennial celebration planning the Institute decided to publish a volume of papers representing the immensely wide range of interests encompassed by statistics in its international context, viewed both from a historical and from a contemporary standpoint. We were fortunate in securing the services of Anthony Atkinson and Stephen Fienberg as Editors of this volume: they have worked hard over a period of several years to put together a most fascinating collection of papers. On behalf of the Institute it is my pleasant duty to thank them and the authors for their contributions. J. DURBIN, President International Statistical Institute Preface The papers in this volume were prepared to help celebrate the centenary of the International Statistical Institute. During the lSI's first 100 years statistics has matured, both as a scientific discipline and as a profession, in ways that the lSI's founders could not possibly have imagined.

Randomised Response-Adaptive Designs in Clinical Trials presents methods for the randomised allocation of treatments to patients in sequential clinical trials. Emphasizing the practical application of clinical trial designs, the book is designed for medical and applied statisticians, clinicians, and statisticians in training. After introducing clinical trials in drug development, the authors assess a simple adaptive design for binary responses without covariates. They discuss randomisation and covariate balance in normally distributed responses and cover many important response-adaptive designs for binary responses. The book then develops response-adaptive designs for continuous and longitudinal responses, optimum designs with covariates, and response-adaptive designs with covariates. It also covers response-adaptive designs that are derived by optimising an objective function subject to constraints on the variance of estimated parametric functions. The concluding chapter explores future directions in the development of adaptive designs.

Extensions of the robust multiple regression model include Bayesian, heteroskedastic, time series and compositional regression, together with the clustering of regression models.

This book collects the proceedings of the 10th Workshop on Model-Oriented Design and Analysis (mODa). A model-oriented view on the design of experiments, which is the unifying theme of all mODa meetings, assumes some knowledge of the form of the data-generating process and naturally leads to the so-called optimum experimental design. Its theory and practice have since become important in many scientific and technological fields, ranging from optimal designs for dynamic models in pharmacological research, to designs for industrial experimentation, to designs for simulation experiments in environmental risk management, to name but a few. The methodology has become even more important in recent years because of the increased speed of scientific developments, the complexity of the systems currently under investigation and the mounting pressure on businesses, industries and scientific researchers to reduce product and process development times. This increased competition requires ever increasing efficiency in experimentation, thus necessitating new statistical designs. This book presents a rich collection of carefully selected contributions ranging from statistical methodology to emerging applications. It primarily aims to provide an overview of recent advances and challenges in the field, especially in the context of new formulations, methods and state-of-the-art algorithms. The topics included in this volume will be of interest to all scientists and engineers and statisticians who conduct experiments.

This volume contains pioneering contributions to both the theory and practice of optimal experimental design. Topics include the optimality of designs in linear and nonlinear models, as well as designs for correlated observations and for sequential experimentation. There is an emphasis on applications to medicine, in particular, to the design of clinical trials. Scientists from Europe, the US, Asia, Australia and Africa contributed to this volume of papers from the 11th Workshop on Model Oriented Design and Analysis.

The Fifth International Workshop on Model-Oriented Data Analysis (MODA5) focused on experimental design, particularly optimum design. A strength of this series of workshops is that they bring together leading scientists from "Eastern" and "Western" Europe. The proceedings therefore provides a valuable reference to the work of groups from many countries. In addition to 11 papers on optimum designs for linear and nonlinear models, there are groups of papers on designs for quality improvement, designs in agriculture and for model building. Non-design problems include robustness in linear models and estimation problems in nonlinear models. The volume concludes with a discussion on the teaching of experimental design.

The volume contains the proceedings of the 6th Workshop on Model-Oriented Design and Analysis, within a series of workshops that initially had the purpose of bringing together leading scientists from Eastern and Western Europe for the exchange of ideas in theoretical and applied statistics, with special emphasis on experimental design. The participants of these workshops have developed into a community with a range of common interests that are centred around the theory and applications of optimum design of experiments. In addition to this, the volume contains a series of special papers on topics from medical and pharmaceutical statistics.