Apollo M. Nkwake – författare

​A major reason complex programs are so difficult to evaluate is that the assumptions that inspire them are poorly articulated. Stakeholders of such programs are often unclear about how the change process will unfold. Thus, it is so difficult to reasonably anticipate the early and midterm changes that need to happen in order for a longer-term goalto be reached. The lack of clarity about the “mini-steps” that must be taken to reach a long-term outcome not only makes the task of evaluating a complex initiative challenging, but reduces the likelihood that all of the important factors related to the long term goal will be addressed. Most of the resources that have attempted to address this dilemma have been popularized as theory of change or sometimes program theory approaches. Although these approaches emphasize and elaborate the sequence of changes/mini steps that lead to the long-term goal of interest and the connections between program activities and outcomes that occur at each step of the way, they do not do enough to clarify how program managers or evaluators should deal with assumptions. Assumptions, the glue that holds all the pieces together, remain abstract and far from applicable.In this book the author tackles this important assumptions theme head-on-covering a breadth of ground from the epistemology of development assumptions, to the art of making logical assumptions as well as recognizing, explicit zing and testing assumptions with in an elaborate program theory from program design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation.

Assumptions: Complexity, Practice and Values delves into the empirical and theoretical aspects of assumptions in evaluation, offering methodologies to identify and categorize them, and exploring how they influence evaluations and each other. It provides practical guidance for evaluators to help stakeholders identify priorities and plan effective programs, while also presenting conceptual insights into the nature of assumptions and their impact on both programs and evaluations. The chapters push the boundaries of our understanding of assumptions in the field and propose a research agenda to deepen our knowledge and improve evaluation practices. Addressing assumptions is a cornerstone of evaluative thinking, crucial for uncovering the beliefs that guide stakeholders' decisions and actions. This book emphasizes how these assumptions shape the evaluation process, determining the questions asked and the answers sought. By examining these underlying beliefs, evaluators can conduct more meaningful evaluations that truly reflect the needs and realities of the programs they assess. This book also equips methodologists with the tools to design evaluations that yield actionable insights for decision-makers. Practitioners will learn to monitor their own and their stakeholders' assumptions to avoid biases and leverage deeper understanding in their work. Program funders and designers will gain the knowledge to implement more effective programs and avoid unintended consequences. Evaluation educators will find valuable content to enhance their teaching, and researchers will discover new directions for their studies. Ultimately, Assumptions aims to enrich evaluators' ability to reveal and prioritize the most consequential assumptions in their work.

Assumptions: Complexity, Practice and Values delves into the empirical and theoretical aspects of assumptions in evaluation, offering methodologies to identify and categorize them, and exploring how they influence evaluations and each other. It provides practical guidance for evaluators to help stakeholders identify priorities and plan effective programs, while also presenting conceptual insights into the nature of assumptions and their impact on both programs and evaluations. The chapters push the boundaries of our understanding of assumptions in the field and propose a research agenda to deepen our knowledge and improve evaluation practices. Addressing assumptions is a cornerstone of evaluative thinking, crucial for uncovering the beliefs that guide stakeholders' decisions and actions. This book emphasizes how these assumptions shape the evaluation process, determining the questions asked and the answers sought. By examining these underlying beliefs, evaluators can conduct more meaningful evaluations that truly reflect the needs and realities of the programs they assess. This book also equips methodologists with the tools to design evaluations that yield actionable insights for decision-makers. Practitioners will learn to monitor their own and their stakeholders' assumptions to avoid biases and leverage deeper understanding in their work. Program funders and designers will gain the knowledge to implement more effective programs and avoid unintended consequences. Evaluation educators will find valuable content to enhance their teaching, and researchers will discover new directions for their studies. Ultimately, Assumptions aims to enrich evaluators' ability to reveal and prioritize the most consequential assumptions in their work.

It suggests simple ways for stakeholders and evaluators to 1) examine their assumptions about program theory and environmental conditions and 2) develop and carry out effective program monitoring and evaluation in light of those assumptions.

It suggests simple ways for stakeholders and evaluators to 1) examine their assumptions about program theory and environmental conditions and 2) develop and carry out effective program monitoring and evaluation in light of those assumptions.

This book focuses on methods of choice in program evaluation. Credible methods choice lies in the assumptions we make about the appropriateness and validity of selected methods and the validity of those assumptions. As evaluators make methodological decisions in various stages of the evaluation process, a number of validity questions arise. Yet unexamined assumptions are a risk to useful evaluation. The first edition of this book discussed the formulation of credible methodological arguments and methods of examining validity assumptions. However, previous publications suggest advantages and disadvantages of using various methods and when to use them. Instead, this book analyzes assumptions underlying actual methodological choices in evaluation studies and how these influence evaluation quality. This analysis is the basis of suggested tools.The second edition extends the review of methodological assumptions to the evaluation of humanitarian assistance. While evaluatorsof humanitarian action apply conventional research methods and standards, they have to adapt these methods to the challenges and constraints of crisis contexts. For example, the urgency and chaos of humanitarian emergencies makes it hard to obtain program documentation; objectives may be unclear, and early plans may quickly become outdated as the context changes or is clarified. The lack of up-to-date baseline data is not uncommon. Neither is staff turnover. Differences in perspective may intensify and undermine trust. The deviation from ideal circumstances challenges evaluation and calls for methodological innovation. And how do evaluators work with assumptions in non-ideal settings? What tools are most relevant and effective? This revised edition reviews major evaluations of humanitarian action and discusses strategies for working with evaluation assumptions in crises and stable program settings.

Credible methods choice lies in the assumptions we make about the appropriateness and validity of selected methods and the validity of those assumptions. Instead, this book analyzes assumptions underlying actual methodological choices in evaluation studies and how these influence evaluation quality.

This book focuses on assumptions underlying methods choice in program evaluation. This book goes beyond other publications to analyze the assumptions underlying actual methodological choices in evaluation studies and how these eventually influence evaluation quality.