Bruce Hannon - Böcker

This book, as others in the MDS series, is geared towards making the modeling of disease attractive to students and those with emerging interests in the subject. Models help us understand the nonlinear dynamics of real-world processes by using the computer to mimic the actual forces that result in a system’s behavior. The growing complexity of human social systems, from individual behavior to that of entire populations makes us increasingly vulnerable to diseases and pests. The ecology of the disease agents and the pests when considered in this social context only adds to the complexity. The feedbacks, lags in the effects of our preventive actions and the randomness in the environment make understanding of these vulnerabilities seem insurmountable. The amount and pace of modern travel provides virus and pest alike with the means to quickly find new hosts in untouched human populations and the ecosystems.We thus have compelling reasons to understand the dynamics of these combined systems. This book begins with simple examples of human epidemics and then insect dynamics. Next comes the models of ever more complex models of disease carried by interaction of the two. An invasive species model is followed by insect-ecosystem interactions. The general models of chaos and catastrophe are linked to models of disease and pest. The final model is a spatial dynamic spread of disease among a wild animal population. By using the STELLA programs (runtime versions and digital forms of all models are available with the book) we show how with a minimum of mathematical preparation and programming experience, these complex processes can be simulated and their emergent properties discovered. The programs run on both Macintosh and PC based machines.

Modelling is a tool used by savvy business managers to understand the processes of their business and to estimate the impact of changes. Dynamic Modelling for Business Management applies dynamic modelling to business management, using accessible modelling techniques that are demonstrated starting with fundamental processes and advancing to more complex business models. Discussions of modelling emphasize its practical use for decision making and implementing change for measurable results. Readers will learn about both manufacturing and service-oriented business processes using hands-on lessons. Then will then be able to manipulate additional models to try out their knowledge and address issues specific to their own businesses and interests. All of the models used in the book and a run-time version of the ithink software are included on a CD-ROM included with the book. Some of the topics covered include workflow management, supply-chain-management, and strategy.

Computer models offer a means of interpreting and analyzing the dynamics of real-world systems ranging from population growth to ozone depletion and a new section on modeling in genetics. Dynamic Modeling introduces an approach to modeling that makes it a more practical, intuitive endeavor. The book enables readers to convert their understanding of a phenomenon to a computer model, and then to run the model and let it yield the inevitable dynamic consequences built into the structure of the model. Dynamic Modeling uses STELLA software to develop simulation models. Part I provides an introduction to modeling dynamic systems. Part II offers general methods for modeling. Parts III through VIII apply these methods to model real-world phenomena from chemistry, genetics, ecology, economics, and engineering. To develop and execute dynamic simulation models, Dynamic Modeling comes with STELLA run-time software compatible with both Windows and Mac systems, as well as computer files of sample models used in the book.Dynamic Modeling offers a clear, approachable introduction to the modeling process, and will be of interest in any field where real problems can be illuminated by computer simulation.

Computer models offer a means of interpreting and analyzing the dynamics of real-world systems ranging from population growth to ozone depletion and a new section on modeling in genetics. Dynamic Modeling introduces an approach to modeling that makes it a more practical, intuitive endeavor. The book enables readers to convert their understanding of a phenomenon to a computer model, and then to run the model and let it yield the inevitable dynamic consequences built into the structure of the model. Dynamic Modeling uses STELLA software to develop simulation models. Part I provides an introduction to modeling dynamic systems. Part II offers general methods for modeling. Parts III through VIII apply these methods to model real-world phenomena from chemistry, genetics, ecology, economics, and engineering. Dynamic Modeling offers a clear, approachable introduction to the modeling process, and will be of interest in any field where real problems can be illuminated by computer simulation.

Models help us understand the dynamics of real-world processes by using the computer to mimic the actual forces that are known or assumed to result in a system's behavior. This book does not require a substantial background in mathematics or computer science.

This book explores the dynamic processes in economic systems, concentrating on the extraction and use of the natural resources required to meet economic needs. Sections cover methods for dynamic modeling in economics, microeconomic models of firms, modeling optimal use of both nonrenewable and renewable resources, and chaos in economic models.

Modelling is a tool used by savvy business managers to understand the processes of their business and to estimate the impact of changes. Dynamic Modelling for Business Management applies dynamic modelling to business management, using accessible modelling techniques that are demonstrated starting with fundamental processes and advancing to more complex business models. Discussions of modelling emphasize its practical use for decision making and implementing change for measurable results. Readers will learn about both manufacturing and service-oriented business processes using hands-on lessons. Then will then be able to manipulate additional models to try out their knowledge and address issues specific to their own businesses and interests. Some of the topics covered include workflow management, supply-chain-management, and strategy.

This book, as others in the MDS series, is geared towards making the modeling of disease attractive to students and those with emerging interests in the subject. Models help us understand the nonlinear dynamics of real-world processes by using the computer to mimic the actual forces that result in a system’s behavior. The growing complexity of human social systems, from individual behavior to that of entire populations makes us increasingly vulnerable to diseases and pests. The ecology of the disease agents and the pests when considered in this social context only adds to the complexity. The feedbacks, lags in the effects of our preventive actions and the randomness in the environment make understanding of these vulnerabilities seem insurmountable. The amount and pace of modern travel provides virus and pest alike with the means to quickly find new hosts in untouched human populations and the ecosystems.We thus have compelling reasons to understand the dynamics of these combined systems. This book begins with simple examples of human epidemics and then insect dynamics. Next comes the models of ever more complex models of disease carried by interaction of the two. An invasive species model is followed by insect-ecosystem interactions. The general models of chaos and catastrophe are linked to models of disease and pest. The final model is a spatial dynamic spread of disease among a wild animal population. By using the STELLA programs (runtime versions and digital forms of all models are available with the book) we show how with a minimum of mathematical preparation and programming experience, these complex processes can be simulated and their emergent properties discovered. The programs run on both Macintosh and PC based machines.

This book explores the dynamic processes in economic systems, concentrating on the extraction and use of the natural resources required to meet economic needs. Sections cover methods for dynamic modeling in economics, microeconomic models of firms, modeling optimal use of both nonrenewable and renewable resources, and chaos in economic models. This book does not require a substantial background in mathematics or computer science.

This volume teaches computer modeling of biological systems using models created by STELLA software, including cell development, the beating heart and the spread of epidemics. It includes easy-to-use software modules that require no prior experience to use.

Many biologists and ecologists have developed models that find widespread use in theoretical investigations and in applications to organism behavior, disease control, population and metapopulation theory, ecosystem dynamics, and environmental management. This book captures and extends the process of model development by concentrating on the dynamic aspects of these processes and by providing the tools such that virtually anyone with basic knowledge in the Life Sciences can develop meaningful dynamic models. Examples of the systems modeled in the book range from models of cell development, the beating heart, the growth and spread of insects, spatial competition and extinction, to the spread and control of epidemics, including the conditions for the development of chaos. Key features: - easy-to-learn and easy-to-use software - examples from many subdisciplines of biology, covering models of cells, organisms, populations, and metapopulations - no prior computer or programming experience required Key benefits: - learn how to develop modeling skills and system thinking on your own rather than use models developed by others - be able to easily run models under alternative assumptions and investigate the implications of these assumptions for the dynamics of the biological system being modeled - develop skills to assess the dynamics of biological systems