Erica Chenoweth – författare

What drives governments to crack down on and kill their own civilians? And how—and to what extent—has nonviolent resistance historically mitigated the likelihood of mass killings? This special report explores the factors associated with mass killings: when governments intentionally kill 1,000 or more civilian noncombatants. We find that these events are surprisingly common, occurring in just under half of all maximalist popular uprisings against states, yet they are strongly associated with certain types of resistance. Nonviolent uprisings that do not receive foreign material aid and that manage to gain military defections tend to be the safest. These findings shed light on how both dissidents and their foreign allies can work together to reduce the likelihood of violent confrontations.

Nonviolent campaigns usually take place in complex domestic and international settings, where support from outside actors can be a double-edged sword. We argue that nonviolent campaigns tend to benefit the most from external assistance that allows them to generate high participation, maintain nonviolent discipline, deter crackdowns, and elicit security force defections. But various forms of external assistance have mixed effects on the characteristics and outcomes of nonviolent campaigns. We use original qualitative and quantitative data to examine the ways that external assistance impacted the characteristics and success rates of post-2000 maximalist uprisings.

Among other findings, we argue that long-term investment in civil society and democratic institutions can strengthen the societal foundations for nonviolent movements; that activists who receive training prior to peak mobilization are much more likely to mobilize campaigns with high participation, low fatalities, and greater likelihood of defections; that donor coordination is important to be able to effectively support and leverage nonviolent campaigns; and that concurrent external support to armed groups tends to undermine nonviolent movements in numerous ways. Flexible donor assistance that supports safe spaces for campaign planning and relationship-building, and multilateral diplomatic pressure that mitigates regime repression can be particularly helpful for nonviolent campaigns.

Preisgekröntes Buch, nun erstmals in deutscher Übersetzung (Gewinner des Grawemeyer Award 2013, Gewinner des Woodrow Wilson Foundation Award 2012 der American Political Science Association, Buch des Jahres 2011 von The Guardian).Kampagnen des gewaltlosen Widerstands waren zwischen 1900 und 2006 mehr als doppelt so erfolgreich wie gewaltsame Bewegungen.Die Autorinnen kombinieren statistische Analysen mit über 300 Fallstudien aus aller Welt und zeigen detailliert die Faktoren auf, die solche Kampagnen erfolgreich machen – und manchmal auch scheitern lassen. Das Buch vergleicht systematisch gewalttätige und gewaltfreie Entwicklungen in verschiedenen politischen und geografischen Konfliktkontexten. Es entlarvt den Mythos, dass Gewalt durch strukturelle und situationsbedingte Faktoren entsteht und notwendig sei, um bestimmte politische Ziele zu erreichen. Stattdessen stellen Chenoweth und Stephan fest, dass gewaltsame Aufstände nur selten aus strategischen Gründen gerechtfertigt werden können. Und sie weisen nach, dass gewaltfreie Widerstandsbewegungen häufiger, schneller, mit weit weniger Opfern und geringeren Kosten zu stabileren und friedlicheren Demokratien führen. Ergebnisse, die auch und gerade heute höchst aktuell sind!