Ian Roulstone – författare

Numerical weather prediction is a problem of mathematical physics. The complex flows in the atmosphere and oceans are believed to be accurately modelled by the Navier-Stokes equations of fluid mechanics together with classical thermodynamics. However, due to the enormous complexity of these equations, meteorologists and oceanographers have constructed approximate models of the dominant, large-scale flows that control the evolution of weather systems and that describe, for example, the dynamics of cyclones and ocean eddies. The simplifications often result in models that are amenable to solution both analytically and numerically. The lectures in these volumes examine and explain why such simplifications to Newton's second law produce accurate, useful models and, just as the meteorologist seeks patterns in the weather, mathematicians seek structure in the governing equations, such as groups of transformations, Hamiltonian structure and stability. This 2002 book and its companion show how geometry and analysis facilitate solution strategies.

Numerical weather prediction is a problem of mathematical physics. The complex flows in the atmosphere and oceans are believed to be accurately modelled by the Navier-Stokes equations of fluid mechanics together with classical thermodynamics. However, due to the enormous complexity of these equations, meteorologists and oceanographers have constructed approximate models of the dominant, large-scale flows that control the evolution of weather systems and that describe, for example, the dynamics of cyclones and ocean eddies. The simplifications often result in models that are amenable to solution both analytically and numerically. The lectures in this volume, first published in 2002, examine and explain why such simplifications to Newton's second law produce accurate, useful models and, just as the meteorologist seeks patterns in the weather, mathematicians seek structure in the governing equations, such as groups of transformations, Hamiltonian structure and stability. This book and its companion show how geometry and analysis facilitate solution strategies.

Invisible in the Storm is the first book to recount the history, personalities, and ideas behind one of the greatest scientific successes of modern times--the use of mathematics in weather prediction. Although humans have tried to forecast weather for millennia, mathematical principles were used in meteorology only after the turn of the twentieth century. From the first proposal for using mathematics to predict weather, to the supercomputers that now process meteorological information gathered from satellites and weather stations, Ian Roulstone and John Norbury narrate the groundbreaking evolution of modern forecasting. The authors begin with Vilhelm Bjerknes, a Norwegian physicist and meteorologist who in 1904 came up with a method now known as numerical weather prediction. Although his proposed calculations could not be implemented without computers, his early attempts, along with those of Lewis Fry Richardson, marked a turning point in atmospheric science.Roulstone and Norbury describe the discovery of chaos theory's butterfly effect, in which tiny variations in initial conditions produce large variations in the long-term behavior of a system--dashing the hopes of perfect predictability for weather patterns. They explore how weather forecasters today formulate their ideas through state-of-the-art mathematics, taking into account limitations to predictability. Millions of variables--known, unknown, and approximate--as well as billions of calculations, are involved in every forecast, producing informative and fascinating modern computer simulations of the Earth system. Accessible and timely, Invisible in the Storm explains the crucial role of mathematics in understanding the ever-changing weather.

Die Verwendung von Mathematik bei der Vorhersage von Wetter, und damit einer der größten Erfolge moderner Wissenschaft, wird in diesem Werk erstmalig anschaulich dargestellt. Obwohl Menschen schon immer versucht haben, Wetter vorherzusagen, wurden mathematische Prinzipien erst mit Beginn des 20. Jahrhunderts regelmäßig dabei eingesetzt. In diesem Buch schildern Ian Roulstone und John Norbury die grundlegenden Veränderungen in der modernen Meteorologie - vom ersten Versuch an, Mathematik in der Wettervorhersage zu verwenden, bis hin zum Einsatz der heutigen Supercomputer, die meteorologische Informationen von Satelliten und Wetterstationen systematisch auswerten. Bereits 1904 führte der norwegische Physiker und Meteorologe Vilhelm Bjerknes eine Methode ein, die unter dem Begriff "Numerische Wettervorhersage" Eingang in die Wissenschaft gefunden hat. Obwohl die von ihm vorgeschlagenen Berechnungen nicht ohne Computer durchgeführt werden konnten, stellten seine mathematischen Überlegungen, ebenso wie die von Lewis Fry Richardson, einen Wendepunkt in der atmosphärischen Wissenschaft dar. Roulstone und Norbury beschreiben die Entdeckung des Schmetterlingseffekts in der Chaostheorie, nach der selbst kleinste Veränderungen der Ausgangskonditionen erhebliche Variationen auf lange Sicht im System verursachen - eine Entdeckung, die die Hoffnung auf eine perfekte Vorhersehbarkeit des Wetters zunichtemachte. Die Autoren stellen dar, wie Meteorologen heute modernste Mathematik einsetzen, dabei aber doch den Grenzen der Vorhersagbarkeit unterliegen. Millionen von Variablen - bekannt, unbekannt und geschätzt - sowie Milliarden von Berechnungen sind heute Grundlage jeder Vorhersage und ermöglichen interessante und faszinierende moderne Computersimulationen des atmosphärischen Systems. Dieses Werk erläutert auf leicht verständliche Weise die unverzichtbare Rolle von Mathematik bei der Vorhersage des sich immer wandelnden Wetters.​