J. L. Black – författare

This book presents a comprehensive survey of the current state of Russia and how Russia is likely to develop in the immediate future. Not always sticking to the mainstream narrative, it covers political events including Putin’s constitutional reforms of January 2020 and their likely consequences, economic developments, Russia’s international relations and military activities, and changes and issues in Russian society, including in education, the place of women, health care and religion. Special attention is paid to manifestations of the COVID-19 pandemic. The book’s overall conclusion is that events of 2020 may compel Putin to ‘think again’ before he decides whether to run for office in 2024.

This book presents a comprehensive survey of the current state of Russia and how Russia is likely to develop in the immediate future. Not always sticking to the mainstream narrative, it covers political events including Putin’s constitutional reforms of January 2020 and their likely consequences, economic developments, Russia’s international relations and military activities, and changes and issues in Russian society, including in education, the place of women, health care and religion. Special attention is paid to manifestations of the COVID-19 pandemic. The book’s overall conclusion is that events of 2020 may compel Putin to ‘think again’ before he decides whether to run for office in 2024.

J. L. Black's latest work is a rich and carefully crafted attempt to expose the textures of Russia's perceptions of itself and its place in the world. Based almost entirely on Russian sources, J. L. Black found himself returning to the old practice of citing and decoding feature items from the Russian press. The difference between then and now, of course, is that at that time there was the struggle to read between the lines while now he reads and tries to digest the lines themselves-the Russian press still provides a very good indication of prevailing moods within the political and military elite establishments of Moscow. It is also still evident that if we are to understand Russian foreign policy-making, we must attempt to view international situations through the prism of Russian analysts and officials. Only then can we draw conclusions based on both our and their perceptions of current events and visions for the future.Vladimir Putin and the New World Order is divided into two parts. The first is a chronologically organized story of Putin's efforts to find a niche for Russia in the world since his sudden appointment as acting president at the end of December 1999. Throughout, Black places great emphasis on the sequence of events to illustrate important patterns; for example, Putin's tendency to make dramatic overtures to the East as preparation for negotiations with the West. The book's second part focuses on Russia's attention to specific regions of the world and types of international activity. These include individual countries, such as China and Ukraine; regions like Central Asia and the Caucasus; integrative agencies, including the CIS; concepts and practices, among them matters of security and military reform; and the ambivalent Russian associations with so-called "rogue" states.

J. L. Black's latest work is a rich and carefully crafted attempt to expose the textures of Russia's perceptions of itself and its place in the world. Based almost entirely on Russian sources, J. L. Black found himself returning to the old practice of citing and decoding feature items from the Russian press. The difference between then and now, of course, is that at that time there was the struggle to read between the lines while now he reads and tries to digest the lines themselves-the Russian press still provides a very good indication of prevailing moods within the political and military elite establishments of Moscow. It is also still evident that if we are to understand Russian foreign policy-making, we must attempt to view international situations through the prism of Russian analysts and officials. Only then can we draw conclusions based on both our and their perceptions of current events and visions for the future.Vladimir Putin and the New World Order is divided into two parts. The first is a chronologically organized story of Putin's efforts to find a niche for Russia in the world since his sudden appointment as acting president at the end of December 1999. Throughout, Black places great emphasis on the sequence of events to illustrate important patterns; for example, Putin's tendency to make dramatic overtures to the East as preparation for negotiations with the West. The book's second part focuses on Russia's attention to specific regions of the world and types of international activity. These include individual countries, such as China and Ukraine; regions like Central Asia and the Caucasus; integrative agencies, including the CIS; concepts and practices, among them matters of security and military reform; and the ambivalent Russian associations with so-called "rogue" states.

The immediate and long-term importance of Russian thinking about NATO expansion eastward has been badly underestimated in the West. Indeed, most Western analysis has striven to provide justification for the West’s policy of enlarging the alliance rather than examining its potential drawbacks. Although the NATO issue has been articulated primarily by the Russian elite, it has manifested itself in a rising reservoir of ill-will toward the West that cannot be ignored. In this first comprehensive English-language assessment of the Russian position, J. L. Black seeks to remedy that oversight with a thorough examination of Russian official statements, expert analysis, political platforms, and media commentary. Taken together, they show the degree to which NATO expansion has brought a rare unity to the otherwise fragmented and volatile Russian political arena. The author first provides a detailed account of Russian reactions to NATO’s plans since the early 1990s. He then analyzes how the NATO question shapes Russian strategic thinking, military reforms, and election campaigning, and how it affects Moscow’s relationships with Ukraine, the Baltic States, China, and the CIS. Crises in Yugoslavia and Iraq are used as case studies. Based entirely on Russian-language sources, this timely study provides invaluable insights into current Russian thinking on NATO expansion and projects the significance of such thinking for the Western Alliance into the future. Detailed and definitive, Black’s clearly written and balanced assessment of this overriding legacy of the Cold War will be the definitive history of the Russian perspective during a crucial period in Western security and essential reading for policymakers, scholars, and concerned general readers alike.

This book examines the crisis in Ukraine, tracing its development and analysing the factors which lie behind it. It discusses above all how the two sides have engaged in political posturing, accusations, escalating sanctions and further escalating threats, arguing that the ease with which both sides have reverted to a Cold War mentality demonstrates that the Cold War belief systems never really disappeared, and that the hopes raised in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union for a new era in East-West relations were misplaced. The book pays special attention to the often ignored origins of the crisis within Ukraine itself, and the permanent damage caused by the fact that Ukrainians are killing Ukrainians in the eastern parts of the country. It also assesses why Cold War belief systems have re-emerged so easily, and concludes by considering the likely long-term ramifications of the crisis, arguing that the deep-rooted lack of trust makes the possibility of compromise even harder than in the original Cold War.

The term "tandem" was used to describe the Putin-Medvedev combination which ruled Russia from 2008 to 2012, when Medvedev was president and Putin prime minister. Many people saw Putin as the real wielder of power, with Medvedev as his puppet. Others, however, saw Medvedev as a visionary, someone who envisioned large scale schemes - even though these schemes have not yet come to fruition. At the same time, many in the West regarded Medvedev favourably, and gave him credit for raising expectations among both the elite and the middle classes in Russia in such a way as to make it difficult for the Russian state to return to its old ways. This book presents a comprehensive survey of the Medvedev presidency, covering all areas including politics, the economy, international relations and social developments. The author concludes that it is still too early to assess Medvedev's achievements definitively.

The term "tandem" was used to describe the Putin-Medvedev combination which ruled Russia from 2008 to 2012, when Medvedev was president and Putin prime minister. Many people saw Putin as the real wielder of power, with Medvedev as his puppet. Others, however, saw Medvedev as a visionary, someone who envisioned large scale schemes - even though these schemes have not yet come to fruition. At the same time, many in the West regarded Medvedev favourably, and gave him credit for raising expectations among both the elite and the middle classes in Russia in such a way as to make it difficult for the Russian state to return to its old ways. This book presents a comprehensive survey of the Medvedev presidency, covering all areas including politics, the economy, international relations and social developments. The author concludes that it is still too early to assess Medvedev's achievements definitively.

This book examines the crisis in Ukraine, tracing its development and analysing the factors which lie behind it. It discusses above all how the two sides have engaged in political posturing, accusations, escalating sanctions and further escalating threats, arguing that the ease with which both sides have reverted to a Cold War mentality demonstrates that the Cold War belief systems never really disappeared, and that the hopes raised in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union for a new era in East-West relations were misplaced. The book pays special attention to the often ignored origins of the crisis within Ukraine itself, and the permanent damage caused by the fact that Ukrainians are killing Ukrainians in the eastern parts of the country. It also assesses why Cold War belief systems have re-emerged so easily, and concludes by considering the likely long-term ramifications of the crisis, arguing that the deep-rooted lack of trust makes the possibility of compromise even harder than in the original Cold War.

The new world order as it stood after the apparent end of the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR was greeted with enthusiasm and optimism almost everywhere, but especially in the West. Less than a quarter century later that optimism has faded dramatically, with the rise of populism, nationalism, religious extremism and civil discord disrupting political and social norms around the world. This book reveals the extent to which events that began as internal political crises in Europe, the Middle East and the USA have sent ripple effects reaching into all points of the globe. The projection of liberal democratic predominance in the 1990s, has faded as illiberal governance gains support worldwide. Long-standing international trade patterns are disrupted, perhaps permanently, by the weaponization of economic sanctions, real and perceived threats of terrorism raise levels of anxiety everywhere, and severe new weather patterns inflict floods, fires, drought and hurricanes on populations unused to such extremes. This book describes and analyses many of these phenomena in the hope that better understanding of them may help ameliorate their consequences.

The short period of time stretching from the dramatic Constitutional amendments of January 2020 to the war launched by Vladimir Putin against Ukraine in February, 2022, marked a sharp turning point in Russian history. The author explains how Russia got to that point of war. Although Putin, termed ‘eternal’ because of amendments that allow him to run for two more terms as president, is everywhere in it, the book is a study of Russia writ large. It features the political uproar over the Navalny opposition, the ravages of the pandemic, manifestations of climate change, and intensifying confrontations between Russia on one side, Ukraine, NATO and the US on the other. The book provides a who, what, where and when of the short but volatile period prior to the outbreak of war and offers a tentative why it happened. Discussed, too, are the highs and lows of Putin’s popularity; the effectiveness, or not, of economic sanctions, and Moscow’s ‘pivot to the east’.