Jacek Kugler – författare

The War Ledger provides fresh, sophisticated answers to fundamental questions about major modern wars: Why do major wars begin? What accounts for victory or defeat in war? How do victory and defeat influence the recovery of the combatants? Are the rules governing conflict behavior between nations the same since the advent of the nuclear era? The authors find such well-known theories as the balance of power and collective security systems inadequate to explain how conflict erupts in the international system. Their rigorous empirical analysis proves that the power-transition theory, hinging on economic, social, and political growth, is more accurate; it is the differential rate of growth of the two most powerful nations in the system—the dominant nation and the challenger—that destabilizes all members and precipitates world wars. Predictions of who will win or lose a war, the authors find, depend not only on the power potential of a nation but on the capability of its political systems to mobilize its resources—the "political capacity indicator." After examining the aftermath of major conflicts, the authors identify national growth as the determining factor in a nation's recovery. With victory, national capabilities may increase or decrease; with defeat, losses can be enormous. Unexpectedly, however, in less than two decades, losers make up for their losses and all combatants find themselves where they would have been had no war occurred. Finally, the authors address the question of nuclear arsenals. They find that these arsenals do not make the difference that is usually assumed. Nuclear weapons have not changed the structure of power on which international politics rests. Nor does the behavior of participants in nuclear confrontation meet the expectations set out in deterrence theory.

Today, the European Union faces challenges that threaten not only internal cohesion but also its position in the global system. This book is about the future of the EU in the light of global power transition taking place in the twenty-first century and demonstrates how its future rests on a delicate balance between policy challenge, member states’ interests, and convergence or divergence of societal values across its peoples. The book examines factors behind the decline of the EU relative to the rise of China and other powers in the global hierarchy and what policy options are available for EU leaders to implement in order to compete as a global actor. It analyses determinants of regional integration and key policy challenges the EU faces in its quest for an "ever deeper union," and identifies significant factors (i.e., power relations, economic relations, emergent social values across the EU) that can explain the likelihood of further integration or conflict between EU member states.This text will be essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners interested in European Union politics international relations, security studies, and comparative politics.

Given today's heightened competition between national economies in the global marketplace, many have come to believe that government intervention is needed in order for a country to maximize its economic well-being. But to what extent can even the most capable government act to attract investment and enhance economic growth without creating or exac

Parity and War is an impressive explanation of why peace predominates in the international arena and why, on occasion, wars do start. Useful for college students and scholars alike, the work scrutinzes and tests ideas about power preponderance, first discussed over a decade ago in the widely acclaimed book The War Ledger. An alternative to traditional realism, power preponderence contends that peace is preserved when a preponderant nation supports the status quo. The theory convincingly accounts for war initiation, recovery, and peace by analyzing military arms buildups, alliances, territorial threats, economic cycles, and nuclear environment deterrence and proliferation. The contributors to this volume examine and analyze cases as diverse as the peaceful collapse of the Soviet Union, the presence of interstate war in South America in the last century and the absence thereof--despite domestic war--in this century, the economic and political consequences of the American Civil War, and the observation of long-term patterns of conflict and peace in international relations. Moreover, contributors to Parity and War utilize game theory, expected utility, and differential calculus techniques to model major war and to formalize the originally intuitive propositions of power preponderance. Their timely research shows that, in this era of nuclear weapons dominated by a single super power, effective regime guidance by the United States can insure peace for the next century. Contributors include Arina Arbetman, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Vesna Danilovic, Daniel S. Geller, Kenk W. Houweling, Kelly M. Kadera, Woosang Kim, Jacek Kugler, Douglas Lemke, Ross A. Miller, James D. Morrow, A. F. K. Organski, Jan G. Siccama, Randoph M. Siverson, Ronald Tammen, William R. Thompson, John A. Vasquez, Frank Whelon Wayman, Suzanne Werner, and Frank C. Zagare.

Given today’s heightened competition between national economies in the global marketplace, many have come to believe that government intervention is needed in order for a country to maximize its economic well-being. But to what extent can even the most capable government act to attract investment and enhance economic growth without creating or exacerbating conflicts in society—especially when unpopular measures, such as those aimed at controlling inflation and population growth, must be implemented? This timely book by an international team of economists and political scientists tackles that question head on. The contributors draw on theory and empirical data to provide a framework for measuring governments’ ability to gather material resources and mobilize populations. They analyze a variety of policy choices made in the United States and in other nations arond the world during the past fifty years, showing how states can increase their political capacity and thereby reduce economic transaction costs and domestic resistance to government goals.

Today, the European Union faces challenges that threaten not only internal cohesion but also its position in the global system. This book is about the future of the EU in the light of global power transition taking place in the twenty-first century and demonstrates how its future rests on a delicate balance between policy challenge, member states’ interests, and convergence or divergence of societal values across its peoples. The book examines factors behind the decline of the EU relative to the rise of China and other powers in the global hierarchy and what policy options are available for EU leaders to implement in order to compete as a global actor. It analyses determinants of regional integration and key policy challenges the EU faces in its quest for an "ever deeper union," and identifies significant factors (i.e., power relations, economic relations, emergent social values across the EU) that can explain the likelihood of further integration or conflict between EU member states.This text will be essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners interested in European Union politics international relations, security studies, and comparative politics.

Why do some nations fail while others succeed? How can we compare the political capacity of a totalitarian regime to a democracy? Are democracies always more efficient? The Performance of Nations answers these key questions by providing a powerful new tool for measuring governments’ strengths and weaknesses. Allowing researchers to look inside countries down to the local level as well as to compare across societies and over time, the book demonstrates convincingly that political performance is the missing link in measuring power and military capability.For the theorist, political performance data helps to fill in the gaps when GDP alone does not explain the outcome of wars. For the practical policy specialist, political performance sheds a bright light on why some governments succeed and some fail, why investments disappear in one province but multiply in another, and why it is easier to promote health programs in one region but not in its neighbor. This groundbreaking book will be an essential resource for scholars, policymakers, and institutions interested in measuring the political capacities of nations and in knowing where foreign aid and investment will be most effective.Contributions by: Mark Abdollahian, Marina Arbetman-Rabinowitz, Constantine Boussalis, Travis G. Coan, Yi Feng, Gaspare M. Genna, Kristin Johnson, Mathew Jones, Kyungkook Kang, Mariah Kraner, Jacek Kugler, Tadeusz Kugler, Hal T. Nelson, Masami Nishishiba, Peter Noordijk, Saumik Paul, Siddharth Swaminathan, Ronald L. Tammen, John Thomas, Ayesha Umar Wahedi, and Birol Yesilada.

This timely book presents fresh, forward-looking analyses of key regions across the globe, organized around power transition theory. Tracking political and economic trajectories broadly, the contributors use cutting-edge data to forecast general trends in regional politics, economics, and diplomacy. Their collective insights into the likely directions of regional dynamics within a changing global order comprise an invaluable guidebook for forward-thinking readers considering where the world is headed in the coming decades and the implications for strategy, politics, and policy.

This timely book presents fresh, forward-looking analyses of key regions across the globe, organized around power transition theory. Tracking political and economic trajectories broadly, the contributors use cutting-edge data to forecast general trends in regional politics, economics, and diplomacy. Their collective insights into the likely directions of regional dynamics within a changing global order comprise an invaluable guidebook for forward-thinking readers considering where the world is headed in the coming decades and the implications for strategy, politics, and policy.

This timely book offers a comprehensive examination of the current state of nuclear stability postures worldwide, effectively highlighting their inherent limitations. Through their analysis, the authors illustrate how the seemingly contradictory perspectives of deterrence optimists, disarmament idealists, and warfighting pessimists can be reconfigured into a unified approach towards achieving regional and global peace. They suggest that these strategies can be reconciled as complementary, rather than substitute approaches, to achieve the common goal of nuclear stability.To achieve this objective, the book employs a game-theoretical framework to analytically define the conditions for nuclear war. Drawing from extensive observations of significant crises, the model incorporates identifiable systemic regularities that influence the strategic decision-making process during severe crises and establish the prerequisites for different levels of nuclear confrontation. Additionally, by tracing the strategic-technological trajectories of nuclear powers, the authors present a novel analysis that explores the potential for stable coexistence to replace unstable confrontation between global powers, ultimately fostering nuclear peace.The author's theoretical explorations lead to the policy conclusion that establishing a nuclear oligopolistic hierarchy, under the leadership of preponderant global powers committed to a no-first-use pledge, presents the most effective international system for enhancing both regional and global nuclear stability. This book aims to surpass the Cold War origins of current nuclear strategy and develop a comprehensive policy framework that guarantees enduring nuclear stability in the contemporary world.