Jr. Wolf - Böcker

Unwelcome surprises in the life of any organization can often be traced to the failure of an assumption that the organization's leadership didn't anticipate or had 'forgotten' it was making. Assumption-based planning (ABP) is a tool for identifying as many as possible of the assumptions underlying the plans of an organization and bringing those assumptions explicitly into the planning process. This book presents a variety of techniques for rooting out those vulnerable, crucial assumptions. The book also presents steps for monitoring all the vulnerable assumptions of a plan, for taking actions to control those vulnerable assumptions where possible, and for preparing the organization for the potential failure of those assumptions where control is not possible. The book provides a variety of examples and practical advice for those interested in carrying out an application of ABP in the fields of business, management, strategic planning, engineering, and in military applications.

As the East Asian financial crisis continues to leave a path of destruction economically and politically in its wake, people all over the world seek to know what went wrong. Many blame the illiberal markets of the countries involved and many blame their political leadership. This book, first published in 2000, explores how strong, open, liberalized markets create a counterbalance to crony capitalism and corruption and form the basis for a foundation of political liberalization. Using both a quantitative model and qualititative country studies, this work analyzes the experiences of China, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Korea in moving toward both marketization and democracy.

The world of intelligence has been completely transformed by the end of the Cold War and the onset of an age of information. Prior to the 1990s, US government intelligence had one principal target, the Soviet Union; a narrow set of 'customers', the political and military officials of the US government; and a limited set of information from the sources they owned, spy satellites and spies. Today, world intelligence has many targets, numerous consumers - not all of whom are American or in the government - and too much information, most of which is not owned by the U.S. government and is of widely varying reliability. In this bold and penetrating study, Gregory Treverton, former Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council and Senate investigator, offers his insider's views on how intelligence gathering and analysis must change. He suggests why intelligence needs to be both contrarian, leaning against the conventional wisdom, and attentive to the longer term, leaning against the growing shorter time horizons of Washington policy makers. He urges that the solving of intelligence puzzles tap expertise outside government - in the academy, think tanks, and Wall Street - to make these parties colleagues and co-consumers of intelligence, befitting the changed role of government from doer to convener, mediator, and coalition-builder.

As the East Asian financial crisis continues to leave a path of destruction economically and politically in its wake, people all over the world seek to know what went wrong. Many blame the illiberal markets of the countries involved and many blame their political leadership. This book, first published in 2000, explores how strong, open, liberalized markets create a counterbalance to crony capitalism and corruption and form the basis for a foundation of political liberalization. Using both a quantitative model and qualititative country studies, this work analyzes the experiences of China, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Korea in moving toward both marketization and democracy.

Unwelcome surprises in the life of any organization can often be traced to the failure of an assumption that the organization's leadership didn't anticipate or had 'forgotten' it was making. Assumption-based planning (ABP) is a tool for identifying as many as possible of the assumptions underlying the plans of an organization and bringing those assumptions explicitly into the planning process. This book presents a variety of techniques for rooting out those vulnerable, crucial assumptions. The book also presents steps for monitoring all the vulnerable assumptions of a plan, for taking actions to control those vulnerable assumptions where possible, and for preparing the organization for the potential failure of those assumptions where control is not possible. The book provides a variety of examples and practical advice for those interested in carrying out an application of ABP in the fields of business, management, strategic planning, engineering, and in military applications.

Successful coercion should be relatively simple for the United States. Since the demise of the Soviet Union, the United States is without rivals in military might, political influence, or economic strength. Yet despite the lopsided US edge in raw power, regional foes persist in defying the threats and ultimatums brought by the United States and its allies. This book examines why some attempts to strong-arm an adversary work while others do not. It explores how coercion today differs from coercion during the Cold War. It describes the constraints on the United States emanating from the need to work within coalitions and the restrictions imposed by domestic politics, and it assesses the special challenges likely to arise when an adversary is a non-state actor or when the use of weapons of mass destruction is possible.

"When all too many so-called experts see things as they wish they were, Charles Wolf analyze facts to provide genuine insights into the past, present and future. This makes him an invaluable source for anyone who seeks to understand economic, political and security issues and trends."--Karen Elliott House, Wall Street JournalWolf's most probing essays, spanning several subjects appears here.