Kirill Y. Kondratyev – författare

Professor Kondratyev and his team consider the concept of global warming due to the greenhouse effect and put forward a new approach to the problem of assessing the impact of anthropogenic processes. Considering data on both sources and sinks for atmospheric carbon and various conceptual schemes of the global carbon dioxide cycle, they suggest a new approach to studies of the problem of the greenhouse effect. They assess the role of different types of soil and vegetation in the assimilation of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and discuss models of the atmosphere ocean gas exchange and its role in the carbon dioxide cycle, paying special attention to the role of the Arctic Basin. The authors also consider models of other global atmospheric cycles for a range of atmospheric constituents, and conclude by drawing together a range of scenarios on modelling the global carbon cycle.

In Stability of Life on Earth, Professor Kondratyev and his team show that the concept of biotic regulation is of fundamental importance in solving a wide range of environmental and other problems. They put forward a new approach to the solution of old environmental problems. Beginning with a look at the geographic environment and structural units within it, they show that ecosystems represent a set of homogeneous, closely-correlated communities of organisms and their environment. Biologists call such correlated communities ?biogeocenoses?, and they are similar to the corporate structures in economic systems and interact competitively with each other. On the basis of competitive interaction in the biosphere, self-organisation and management take place. The authors show how human economic activity perturbed balances in natural biogeochemical cycles, eliminating and strongly modifying natural land cover, the 20th Century being the time when human activities ?collided? with Nature.They consider scientific bases for the stability and sustainability of life, and demonstrate how the scale and intensity of human-induced destruction of Nature and resultant feedback mechanisms have continuously expanded. They consider the likelihood of increasing numbers of natural disasters as a result of such activities, and propose that sustainable development should become a principal research topic during the 21st Century.

The authors open with a general survey of contemporary global ecodynamics, including its basic components. They then discuss the greenhouse effect problems in the context of global carbon cycle dynamics, moving on to a detailed consideration of land ecosystem changes which considers a general global cycle model. The next chapters comprise a further generalisation of air-sea exchange models and their use in the context of the global carbon cycle, providing an analysis of high-latitude environmental dynamics in the context of global scale processes, and discuss basic aspects of global environmental changes modelling and relevant monitoring systems. The authors close with society systems with particular emphasis on the problems of sustainable development.

This is a timely book in light of increasing concern over global warming and environmental pollution. It describes a simulation system based on sets of computer algorithms for comprehensive analysis of data from global and regional monitoring systems. Chapters in the theoretical part of the book contain descriptions of rigorous algorithms and global environmental models. The applied part considers specific problems of environmental dynamics in areas such as the Arctic and the Caspian-Aral Seas. The purpose of this book is to develop a universal information technology to estimate the state of environmental subsystems functioning under various climatic and anthropogenic conditions. Applied mathematicians, hydrologists, geophysicists, socio-economists and other researchers of global change will find a wealth of information in this book.

Professor Kondratyev and his team consider the concept of global warming due to the greenhouse effect and put forward a new approach to the problem of assessing the impact of anthropogenic processes. Considering data on both sources and sinks for atmospheric carbon and various conceptual schemes of the global carbon dioxide cycle, they suggest a new approach to studies of the problem of the greenhouse effect. They assess the role of different types of soil and vegetation in the assimilation of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and discuss models of the atmosphere ocean gas exchange and its role in the carbon dioxide cycle, paying special attention to the role of the Arctic Basin. The authors also consider models of other global atmospheric cycles for a range of atmospheric constituents, and conclude by drawing together a range of scenarios on modelling the global carbon cycle.

This is a timely book in light of increasing concern over global warming and environmental pollution. It describes a simulation system based on sets of computer algorithms for comprehensive analysis of data from global and regional monitoring systems. Chapters in the theoretical part of the book contain descriptions of rigorous algorithms and global environmental models. The applied part considers specific problems of environmental dynamics in areas such as the Arctic and the Caspian-Aral Seas. The purpose of this book is to develop a universal information technology to estimate the state of environmental subsystems functioning under various climatic and anthropogenic conditions. Applied mathematicians, hydrologists, geophysicists, socio-economists and other researchers of global change will find a wealth of information in this book.

During recent decades the stirring up of the processes of globalization practically in all spheres of present-day civilization activities has aggravated and brought forth numerous problems resulting from the nature-society (N-S) interaction. It has become apparent that to solve these problems it is necessary to develop new concepts and approaches to the interpretation of global environmental changes that would enable one to select the first-priority directions in studies and to reliably assess the state of the nature-society system (NSS). One of these priorities is to predict global climate change. The growing interest in the problem of global climate change, determined by its practical importance and by available contra­ dictory estimates of the anthropogenic contribution to climate change, necessitates a systematization of knowledge of and data on the observed climate change and causes of this change. Despite an enormous amount of projects and programmes of studies of past and present climatic trends, the problem of reliable prediction of future climate change remains far from being solved. Emissions to the atmosphere of greenhouse gases (GHGs), mainly carbon dioxide, is considered as one of the main causes of an expected climate warming resulting in sufficiently negative consequences for humankind. Therefore, an attempt has been made in this book to construct a formalized technology to assess the levelof the greenhouse effectdue to anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide as well as the effects of other gas components.