Vladimir F. Krapivin – författare

This book provides new insights on the study of global environmental changes using the ecoinformatics tools and the adaptive-evolutionary technology of geoinformation monitoring. The main advantage of this book is that it gathers and presents extensive interdisciplinary expertise in the parameterization of global biogeochemical cycles and other environmental processes in the context of globalization and sustainable development. In this regard, the crucial global problems concerning the dynamics of the nature-society system are considered and the key problems of ensuring the system’s sustainable development are studied. A new approach to the numerical modeling of the nature-society system is proposed and results are provided on modeling the dynamics of the system’s characteristics with regard to scenarios of anthropogenic impacts on biogeochemical cycles, land ecosystems and oceans. The main purpose of this book is to develop a universal guide to information-modeling technologies for assessing the function of environmental subsystems under various climatic and anthropogenic conditions.

This book provides the first comprehensive analysis of how aerosols form in the atmosphere through in situ processes as well as via transport from the surface (dust storms, seas spray, biogenic emissions, forest fires etc.). Such an analysis has been followed by the consideration of both observation data (various field observational experiments) and numerical modeling results to assess climate impacts of aerosols bearing in mind that these impacts are the most significant uncertainty in studying natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change.

Large-scale natural catastrophes are environmental phenomena. Numerous studies in recent years have concluded that the frequency of occurrence of such natural disasters have been incereasing. leading to an enhanced risk of very considerable human and economic losses and the widespread destruction and pollution of habitats, settlements and infrastructure. In 2001 over 650 natural disasters happened around the globe with economic losses exceeding $35 billion. 2004 ended with the South East Asian tsunami on 26th December with its huge toll on life and local economics and this demonstrated that the efffects of such disasters are most keenly felt in poorer or developing regions.

The problem of natural disaster prediction and the implementation of environmental monitoring systems to receive, store and process the information necessary for solutions of specific problems in this area , have been analysed by the three authors of this book, all of whom are internationally respected experts in this field.

This book opens new approach to the study of global environmental changes having unfourable character for peoples and other living systems. Main advantage of this book consists in the accumulation of knowledge from different sciences to parameterize global biogeochemical cycles in the context of globalization and sustainable development. Basic global problems of the nature-society system dynamics have been considered and the key problems of ensuring its sustainable development have been discussed. An analysis has been made of the present trend in changing ecological systems and characteristics of the present global ecodynamics have been estimated. The emphasis has been placed on the accomplishment of global geoinformation monitoring, which could provide a reliable control of the environmental processes development with further obtaining prognostic estimates of consequences of realization of anthropogenic projects. A new approach to the nature-society system numerical modelling has been proposed and demonstrative results have been given of modelling the dynamics of this system’s characteristics in cases of realization of some scenarios of anthropogenic impact on the biogeochemical cycles. The importance and the need has been emphasized of development of adaptive algorithms of monitoring data processing which make it possible to reduce the economic expenses on its accomplishment and raise the reliability of the obtained estimates of the global ecodynamics characteristics. Perspective approaches have been suggested for the development of technology to estimate the risk of realization of decisions on ecosystems’ management. The realization of this approach allows integration within a complex structure of all international and national means of environmental monitoring and provides a tool for objective evaluation of the environmental quality. The main purpose of this book is to develop an universal information technology to estimate the state of environmentalsubsystems functioning under various climatic and anthropogenic conditions and to assess the dependence of global bviogeochemical cycles on the globalization processes. Applied mathematicians, geophysicists, hydrologists, socio-economists, statesmans and other researchers of global change will find a wealth of information and ideas in this book.

The exclusive role of natural ecosystems is a key factor in the maintenance of the biospheric equilibrium. The current global crisis is largely caused by their dramatic decline by 43% in the past hundred years. Ignoring the immutable laws and limitations which determine the existence of all living things in the biosphere could lead humanity to an ecological catastrophe. This book presents the ecological, demographic, economic and socio-psychological manifestations of the global crisis and outlines the immutable laws and limitations which determine the existence of all living things in the biosphere.

The authors are eminently qualified to write about the problems associated with the global crisis and consider the causes behind humanity''s conflict with its environment. V. Danilov-Danilian, Associate of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Russia''s former Minister of the Environment, and K. Losev, professor at Moscow State university, are leading Russian ecologists and I. Reyf is a journalist who specializes in ecology and global development. Dr. Danilov-Danilian works on the economics of nature management, economic and mathematical model building, sustainable development theory and ecology. Dr Losev is the chief researcher and head of the division of the VINITI. All the authors have published numerous papers, articles and books on such subjects as glaciology, hydrology, environment studies, global change and sustainable development.