Nozer D. Singpurwalla – författare

The past few years have witnessed dramatic advances in computational methods for Bayesian inference. As a result, Bayesian approaches to solving a wide variety of problems in data analysis and decision-making have become feasible, and there is currently a growth spurt in the application of Bayesian methods. The purpose of this volume is to present several detailed examples of applications of Bayesian thinking, with an emphasis on the scientific or technological context of the problem being solved. The papers collected here were presented and discussed at a Workshop held at Carnegie-Mellon University, September 29 through October 1, 1991. There are five ma­ jor articles, each with two discussion pieces and a reply. These articles were invited by us following a public solicitation of abstracts. The problems they address are diverse, but all bear on policy decision-making. Though not part of our original design for the Workshop, that commonality of theme does emphasize the usefulness of Bayesian meth­ ods in this arena. Along with the invited papers were several additional commentaries of a general nature; the first comment was invited and the remainder grew out of the discussion at the Workshop. In addition there are nine contributed papers, selected from the thirty-four presented at the Workshop, on a variety of applications. This collection of case studies illustrates the ways in which Bayesian methods are being incorporated into statistical practice. The strengths (and limitations) of the approach become apparent through the examples.

Like its predecessor, this second volume presents detailed applications of Bayesian statistical analysis, each of which emphasizes the scientific context of the problems it attempts to solve. The emphasis of this volume is on biomedical applications. These papers were presented at a workshop at Carnegie-Mellon University in 1993.

Like the first two volumes, this third volume of case studies presents detailed applications of Bayesian statistical analysis, emphasizing the sci­ entific context. The papers were presented and discussed at a workshop at Carnegie Mellon University, October 5-7, 1995. In this volume, which is dedicated to the memory of Morris H. DeGroot, econometric applica­ tions are highlighted. There are six invited papers, each with accompany­ ing invited discussion, and eight contributed papers (which were selected following refereeing). In addition, we include prefatory recollections about Morrie DeGroot by James o. Berger and Richard M. Cyert. INVITED PAPERS In Probing Public Opinion: The State of Valencia Experience, Jose Bernardo, who was a scientific advisor to the President of the State of Valencia, Spain, summarizes procedures that were set up to probe public opinion, and were used as an input to the government's decision making process. At the outset, a sample survey had to be designed. The problem of finding an optimal Bayesian design, based on logarithmic divergence be­ tween probability distributions, involves minimization over 21483 points in the action space. To solve it, simulated annealing was used. The author describes the objective of obtaining the probability that an individual clas­ sified in a certain group will prefer one of several possible alternatives, and his approach using posterior distributions based on reference priors.

This preface pertains to three issues that we would like to bring to the attention of the readers: our objectives, our intended audience, and the nature of the material. We have in mind several objectives. The first is to establish a framework for dealing with uncertainties in software engineering, and for using quantitative measures for decision making in this context. The second is to bring into perspective the large body of work having statistical content that is relevant to software engineering, which may not have appeared in the traditional outlets devoted to it. Connected with this second objective is a desire to streamline and organize our own thinking and work in this area. Our third objective is to provide a platform that facilitates an interface between computer scientists and statisticians to address a class of problems in computer science. It appears that such an interface is necessary to provide the needed synergism for solving some difficult problems that the subject poses. Our final objective is to serve as an agent for stimulating more cross-disciplinary research in computer science and statistics. To what extent the material here will meet our objectives can only be assessed with the passage of time. Our intended audience is computer scientists, software engineers, and reliability analysts, who have some exposure to probability and statistics. Applied statisticians interested in reliability problems are also a segment of our intended audience.

We all like to know how reliable and how risky certain situations are, and our increasing reliance on technology has led to the need for more precise assessments than ever before. Such precision has resulted in efforts both to sharpen the notions of risk and reliability, and to quantify them. Quantification is required for normative decision-making, especially decisions pertaining to our safety and wellbeing. Increasingly in recent years Bayesian methods have become key to such quantifications.

Reliability and Risk provides a comprehensive overview of the mathematical and statistical aspects of risk and reliability analysis, from a Bayesian perspective. This book sets out to change the way in which we think about reliability and survival analysis by casting them in the broader context of decision-making. This is achieved by:

Providing a broad coverage of the diverse aspects of reliability, including: multivariate failure models, dynamic reliability, event history analysis, non-parametric Bayes, competing risks, co-operative and competing systems, and signature analysis. Covering the essentials of Bayesian statistics and exchangeability, enabling readers who are unfamiliar with Bayesian inference to benefit from the book. Introducing the notion of ''composite reliability'', or the collective reliability of a population of items. Discussing the relationship between notions of reliability and survival analysis and econometrics and financial risk.

Reliability and Risk can most profitably be used by practitioners and research workers in reliability and survivability as a source of information, reference, and open problems. It can also form the basis of a graduate level course in reliability and risk analysis for students in statistics, biostatistics, engineering (industrial, nuclear, systems), operations research, and other mathematically oriented scientists, wherein the instructor could supplement the material with examples and problems.

We all like to know how reliable and how risky certain situations are, and our increasing reliance on technology has led to the need for more precise assessments than ever before. Such precision has resulted in efforts both to sharpen the notions of risk and reliability, and to quantify them. Quantification is required for normative decision-making, especially decisions pertaining to our safety and wellbeing. Increasingly in recent years Bayesian methods have become key to such quantifications.Reliability and Risk provides a comprehensive overview of the mathematical and statistical aspects of risk and reliability analysis, from a Bayesian perspective. This book sets out to change the way in which we think about reliability and survival analysis by casting them in the broader context of decision-making. This is achieved by: Providing a broad coverage of the diverse aspects of reliability, including: multivariate failure models, dynamic reliability, event history analysis, non-parametric Bayes, competing risks, co-operative and competing systems, and signature analysis.Covering the essentials of Bayesian statistics and exchangeability, enabling readers who are unfamiliar with Bayesian inference to benefit from the book.Introducing the notion of 'composite reliability', or the collective reliability of a population of items.Discussing the relationship between notions of reliability and survival analysis and econometrics and financial risk.Reliability and Risk can most profitably be used by practitioners and research workers in reliability and survivability as a source of information, reference, and open problems. It can also form the basis of a graduate level course in reliability and risk analysis for students in statistics, biostatistics, engineering (industrial, nuclear, systems), operations research, and other mathematically oriented scientists, wherein the instructor could supplement the material with examples and problems.

This preface pertains to three issues that we would like to bring to the attention of the readers: our objectives, our intended audience, and the nature of the material. We have in mind several objectives. The first is to establish a framework for dealing with uncertainties in software engineering, and for using quantitative measures for decision making in this context. The second is to bring into perspective the large body of work having statistical content that is relevant to software engineering, which may not have appeared in the traditional outlets devoted to it. Connected with this second objective is a desire to streamline and organize our own thinking and work in this area. Our third objective is to provide a platform that facilitates an interface between computer scientists and statisticians to address a class of problems in computer science. It appears that such an interface is necessary to provide the needed synergism for solving some difficult problems that the subject poses. Our final objective is to serve as an agent for stimulating more cross-disciplinary research in computer science and statistics. To what extent the material here will meet our objectives can only be assessed with the passage of time. Our intended audience is computer scientists, software engineers, and reliability analysts, who have some exposure to probability and statistics. Applied statisticians interested in reliability problems are also a segment of our intended audience.

Like the first two volumes, this third volume of case studies presents detailed applications of Bayesian statistical analysis, emphasizing the sci­ entific context. The papers were presented and discussed at a workshop at Carnegie Mellon University, October 5-7, 1995. In this volume, which is dedicated to the memory of Morris H. DeGroot, econometric applica­ tions are highlighted. There are six invited papers, each with accompany­ ing invited discussion, and eight contributed papers (which were selected following refereeing). In addition, we include prefatory recollections about Morrie DeGroot by James o. Berger and Richard M. Cyert. INVITED PAPERS In Probing Public Opinion: The State of Valencia Experience, Jose Bernardo, who was a scientific advisor to the President of the State of Valencia, Spain, summarizes procedures that were set up to probe public opinion, and were used as an input to the government''s decision making process. At the outset, a sample survey had to be designed. The problem of finding an optimal Bayesian design, based on logarithmic divergence be­ tween probability distributions, involves minimization over 21483 points in the action space. To solve it, simulated annealing was used. The author describes the objective of obtaining the probability that an individual clas­ sified in a certain group will prefer one of several possible alternatives, and his approach using posterior distributions based on reference priors.

Like its predecessor, this second volume presents detailed applications of Bayesian statistical analysis, each of which emphasizes the scientific context of the problems it attempts to solve. The emphasis of this volume is on biomedical applications. These papers were presented at a workshop at Carnegie-Mellon University in 1993.

The past few years have witnessed dramatic advances in computational methods for Bayesian inference. As a result, Bayesian approaches to solving a wide variety of problems in data analysis and decision-making have become feasible, and there is currently a growth spurt in the application of Bayesian methods. The purpose of this volume is to present several detailed examples of applications of Bayesian thinking, with an emphasis on the scientific or technological context of the problem being solved. The papers collected here were presented and discussed at a Workshop held at Carnegie-Mellon University, September 29 through October 1, 1991. There are five ma­ jor articles, each with two discussion pieces and a reply. These articles were invited by us following a public solicitation of abstracts. The problems they address are diverse, but all bear on policy decision-making. Though not part of our original design for the Workshop, that commonality of theme does emphasize the usefulness of Bayesian meth­ ods in this arena. Along with the invited papers were several additional commentaries of a general nature; the first comment was invited and the remainder grew out of the discussion at the Workshop. In addition there are nine contributed papers, selected from the thirty-four presented at the Workshop, on a variety of applications. This collection of case studies illustrates the ways in which Bayesian methods are being incorporated into statistical practice. The strengths (and limitations) of the approach become apparent through the examples.

This preface pertains to three issues that we would like to bring to the attention of the readers: our objectives, our intended audience, and the nature of the material. We have in mind several objectives. The first is to establish a framework for dealing with uncertainties in software engineering, and for using quantitative measures for decision making in this context. The second is to bring into perspective the large body of work having statistical content that is relevant to software engineering, which may not have appeared in the traditional outlets devoted to it. Connected with this second objective is a desire to streamline and organize our own thinking and work in this area. Our third objective is to provide a platform that facilitates an interface between computer scientists and statisticians to address a class of problems in computer science. It appears that such an interface is necessary to provide the needed synergism for solving some difficult problems that the subject poses. Our final objective is to serve as an agent for stimulating more cross-disciplinary research in computer science and statistics. To what extent the material here will meet our objectives can only be assessed with the passage of time. Our intended audience is computer scientists, software engineers, and reliability analysts, who have some exposure to probability and statistics. Applied statisticians interested in reliability problems are also a segment of our intended audience.

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the First International Conference on Analytical and Computational Methods in Probability Theory and its Applications, ACMPT 2017, held in Moscow, Russia, in October 2017.The 42 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 173 submissions. The conference program consisted of four main themes associated with significant contributions made by A.D.Soloviev. These are:Analytical methods in probability theory,Computational methods in probability theory,Asymptotical methods in probability theory, the history of mathematics.