Robin M. Hogarth – författare

How do people make decisions? How can we help people make better decisions? How can we best study the processes of decision making? The growing field of behavioral decision research, which seeks to link observed decision behavior to underlying psychological mechanisms, may provide the answers to these questions. The volume is based on a recent conference held to honor the work and memory of the late Hillel J. Einhorn, a pioneering scholar in behavioral decision research. Composed of contributions by leading researchers, Insights in Decision Making provides a state-of-the-art image of work in this field. The range of topics covered includes conceptual and technical issues the bridge the gap between theory and the practical concern of improving decision making, difficulties in statistical thinking, experimental studies of processes of judgment and choice, and the emergence of new paradigms for studying decision behavior. Providing many avenues for future research, Insights in Decision Making will be essential reading for students of the psychology of decision making and will prove valuable to readers in psychology, economics, statistics, and management.

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In "Educating Intuition", Robin Hogarth offers the first comprehensive overview of what the science of psychology can tell us about intuition - where it comes from, how it works, whether we can trust it. He finds that intuition is a normal and important component of thought that has its roots in processes of tacit learning. Environment, attention, experience, expertise, and the success of the scientific method all form part of Hogarth's perspective on intuition, leading him to the surprising - but natural - conclusion that we can educate our sixth sense. To this end he offers concrete suggestions and exercises to help readers develop their intuitive skills and habits for learning the 'right' lessons from experience. Artfully and accessibly combining cognitive science, the latest research in psychology, and Hogarth's own observations, "Educating Intuition" eschews the vague approach to the topic that has become commonplace and provides instead a wholly engaging and practical guide to enhancing our intuitive skills.

Despite the many formal methods available most decisions are made intuitively?that is, without apparent reasoning and almost instinctively. This revised and updated edition emphasizes the unstructured and natural way people make judgements and exercise choice, which accounts for almost all real decision-making activity, but argues that intuition can be both studied and educated. The book is quite different from standard texts on decision-making methodology and standard decisions theory in that it is written from the point of view of a psychologist who recognizes that almost all decisions are based on anticipations people make about the future (predictive judgements) which lead to choices or decisions largely based on intuition. Written in a clear and non-technical way it deals with the basis of intuitive judgement, demonstrates the limitations on the human ability to make judgements, and suggests the means of overcoming potential shortcomings. At the same time it stresses the importance of learning the limits to one?s judgmental a bility. The purpose of this book is to help people make better decisions. In a world of increasing uncertainty and complexity Judgement and Choice will be of great value to all decision makers?in commerce, government service, medicine or any other professional activity. Contents Preface; The nature of human judgement;Randomness and the probabilistic environment;Combining information for prediction;Combining information for evaluation and choice;Choice under uncertainty;On learning relations;The role of memory in judgement;Creativity, imagination, and choice;Problem structuring and decision aids;Human judgement?an overview; Appendices; IndexReviews of the First Edition ??I believe that Professor Hogarth?s book will prove to be of historical importance in the development of the field of human judgement.? R.M. Corbin, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1. 1982. ??Hogarth has given us a clear, integrated treatment of the major issues in the field and has managed to convey both the excitement of the work itself and the direct practical implications of the findings.? Terry Connolly, ASQ, June 1982.

This book offers an overview of recent research on the psychology of judgment and decision making, the field which investigates the processes by which people draw conclusions, reach evaluations, and make choices. An introductory, historically oriented chapter provides a way of viewing the overall structure of the field, its recent trends, and its possible directions. Subsequent sections present significant recent papers by prominent researchers, organized to reveal the currents, connections, and controversies that animate the field. Current trends in the field are illustrated with papers from ongoing streams of research. The papers on 'connections' explore memory, explanation, and argument, affect, attitudes, and motivation. Finally, a section on 'controversies' presents problem representation, domain knowledge, content specificity, rule-governed versus rule-described behavior, and proposals for radical departures and new beginnings in the field.

Experience is a great teacher-except when it isn't.Our personal experience is key to who we are and what we do. We judge others by their experience and are judged by ours. Society venerates experience. From doctors to teachers to managers to presidents, the more experience the better. It's not surprising then, that we often fall back on experience when making decisions, an easy way to make judgements about the future, a constant teacher that provides clear lessons. Yet, this intuitive reliance on experience is misplaced.In The Myth of Experience, behavioral scientists Emre Soyer and Robin Hogarth take a transformative look at experience and the many ways it deceives and misleads us. From distorting the past to limiting creativity to reducing happiness, experience can cause misperceptions and then reinforce them without our awareness. Instead, the authors argue for a nuanced approach, where a healthy skepticism toward the lessons of experience results in more reliable decisions and sustainable growth.With real-life examples from bloodletting to personal computers to pandemics, and distilling cutting edge research, Soyer and Hogarth illustrate the flaws of experience as a guide to decision making and provide the remedies needed to improve our judgments and choices-in the workplace and beyond.