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In Japan, the Delphi method is applied since 1971 to foresee possible technological developments. The same approach was used in Germany in 1992 for the first time. The German expert survey about the development of future technology was based on the Japanese survey conducted in 1991 and discussed the same topics.In this book, the results of both studies are compared and analysed. From the comparison, conclusions can be drawn on the relevance of certain technology fields or disciplines not only for public technology policy but also for companies. Possible times of realization, constraints on the realization, the current R&D level of nations or the necessity of international co-operation give hints about tomorrow''s technology and its economic and societal impacts.
Häftad, Engelska, 1994
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This volume is part of a series which makes a contribution to research on innovation, and to the discussion of its political consequences. Adopting a practice-oriented, interdisciplinary approach, the "Technology, Innovation and Policy" series is concerned to examine the complex requirements of research and innovation, to describe their economic and societal impacts and to facilitate the responsible handling of new technologies. In Japan, the Delphi method is applied since 1971 to foresee possible technological developments. The same approach was used in Germany in 1992 for the first time. The German expert survey about the development of future technology was based on the Japanese survey conducted in 1991 and discussed the same topics. The results of both studies are compared and analyzed. From the comparison, conclusions can be drawn on the relevance of certain technology fields or disciplines not only for public technology policy, but also for companies.Possible times of realization, constraints on the realization, the current research and development (R&D) level of nations or the necessity of international co-operation give hints about tomorrow's technology and its economic and societal impacts.