Tshilidzi Marwala - Böcker

Intelligent machines are populating our social, economic and political spaces. These intelligent machines are powered by Artificial Intelligence technologies such as deep learning. They are used in decision making. One element of decision making is the issue of rationality. Regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) require that decisions that are made by these intelligent machines are explainable. Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence proposes that explainable decisions are good but the explanation must be rational to prevent these decisions from being challenged. Noted author Tshilidzi Marwala studies the concept of machine rationality and compares this to the rationality bounds prescribed by Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon and rationality bounds derived from the work of Nobel Laureates Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman. Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence describes why machine rationality is flexibly bounded due to advances in technology. This effectively means that optimally designed machines are more rational than human beings. Readers will also learn whether machine rationality can be quantified and identify how this can be achieved. Furthermore, the author discusses whether machine rationality is subjective. Finally, the author examines whether a population of intelligent machines collectively make more rational decisions than individual machines. Examples in biomedical engineering, social sciences and the financial sectors are used to illustrate these concepts. Provides an introduction to the key questions and challenges surrounding Rational Machines, including, When do we rely on decisions made by intelligent machines? What do decisions made by intelligent machines mean? Are these decisions rational or fair? Can we quantify these decisions? and Is rationality subjective? Introduces for the first time the concept of rational opportunity costs and the concept of flexibly bounded rationality as a rationality of intelligent machines and the implications of these issues on the reliability of machine decisions Includes coverage of Rational Counterfactuals, group versus individual rationality, and rational markets Discusses the application of Moore's Law and advancements in Artificial Intelligence, as well as developments in the area of data acquisition and analysis technologies and how they affect the boundaries of intelligent machine rationality

The book focuses on smart computing for crowdfunding usage, looking at the crowdfunding landscape, e.g., reward-, donation-, equity-, P2P-based and the crowdfunding ecosystem, e.g., regulator, asker, backer, investor, and operator. The increased complexity of fund raising scenario, driven by the broad economic environment as well as the need for using alternative funding sources, has sparked research in smart computing techniques. Covering a wide range of detailed topics, the authors of this book offer an outstanding overview of the current state of the art; providing deep insights into smart computing methods, tools, and their applications in crowdfunding; exploring the importance of smart analysis, prediction, and decision-making within the fintech industry. This book is intended to be an authoritative and valuable resource for professional practitioners and researchers alike, as well as finance engineering, and computer science students who are interested in crowdfunding and other emerging fintech topics.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Methods in Machine Learning introduces methods for optimal tuning of HMC parameters, along with an introduction of Shadow and Non-canonical HMC methods with improvements and speedup. Lastly, the authors address the critical issues of variance reduction for parameter estimates of numerous HMC based samplers. The book offers a comprehensive introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods and provides a cutting-edge exposition of the current pathologies of HMC-based methods in both tuning, scaling and sampling complex real-world posteriors. These are mainly in the scaling of inference (e.g., Deep Neural Networks), tuning of performance-sensitive sampling parameters and high sample autocorrelation.

Other sections provide numerous solutions to potential pitfalls, presenting advanced HMC methods with applications in renewable energy, finance and image classification for biomedical applications. Readers will get acquainted with both HMC sampling theory and algorithm implementation.

Provides in-depth analysis for conducting optimal tuning of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) parameters Presents readers with an introduction and improvements on Shadow HMC methods as well as non-canonical HMC methods Demonstrates how to perform variance reduction for numerous HMC-based samplers Includes source code from applications and algorithms

Recent advances in AI and Mechanism Design provide a vital tool for solving collective action problems, common in international relations. By using AI to optimize mechanisms for cooperation and coordination, we can better address issues such as climate change, trade, and security. Mechanism Design, Behavioral Science and Artificial Intelligence in International Relations shows readers how the intersection of Mechanism Design and Artificial Intelligence is revolutionizing the way we approach international relations. By using AI to optimize mechanisms, we can design better institutions, policies, and agreements that are more effective and efficient. Dr. Tshilidzi Marwala, United Nations University Rector and UN Under-Secretary General, presents the essential technologies used in Game Theory, Mechanism Design and AI and applies these to significant global issues such as interstate conflict, cybersecurity, and energy. International relations are a complex field, with many different actors and interests in play. By incorporating AI into our analysis and decision-making processes, we can better understand and predict the behavior of multiple actors and design mechanisms that take these behaviors into account, thereby producing more desirable and creative interdisciplinary approaches. The book presents real-world applications of these rapidly evolving technologies in crucial research fields such as Interstate Conflict, International Trade, Climate Change, Water management, Energy, cybersecurity, and global finance.Provides insights for computer scientists, researchers, practitioners, and policymakers on how to develop practical tools to solve many complex problems in international relations, such as climate change, cybersecurity, and interstate conflictPresents the necessary computer science, mathematical methods, and techniques in AI, game theory, mechanism design, and algorithm developmentIncludes real-world applications of AI and mechanism design in a wide variety of research topics, such as international conflict, international trade, climate change, water management, energy management, cybersecurity, and global finance

The Governance of Artificial Intelligence provides an essential approach to AI governance, including proactive and comprehensive strategies that efficiently balance innovation and ethical concerns. The book prioritizes social welfare and upholds human rights by maximizing the benefits of AI while reducing its negative aspects. Sections address the principles that govern artificial intelligence, data-related topics, AI algorithms, the issue of computing, applications, and AI governance. Throughout each section, the idea that it is essential to implement a versatile governance structure that incorporates several fields of study and encourages diversity is reinforced. Additionally, utilizing existing regulatory frameworks, ethical standards, and industry benchmarks is essential. Moreover, the book maintains that it is crucial to integrate cooperation between governments, economic organizations, civil society, and the academic community under a multi-stakeholder framework to promote transparency, accountability, and public trust in AI systems. Because of the fast pace of technological progress, the opaqueness of AI algorithms, worries about bias and impartiality, the requirement for accountability in AI-based decisions, and the global nature of AI development and deployment, it is imperative to cultivate global cooperation in regulating AI as its impacts extend beyond national boundaries. AI governance involves establishing worldwide norms and standards that encourage coordinating governance efforts while recognizing cultural and geographical differences.Presents the critical issue of values in AI use, which is important given the proliferation of generative AIDemonstrates how to handle data and apply AI, including case studies for better understanding of the topics coveredDeals with the complex problem of governing data, algorithms, computing, and applications to health, finance, and conflictsIncludes a companion website with a series of videos from the author, providing supplementary information and guidance for understanding key concepts

Militarized Conflict Modeling Using Computational Intelligence examines the application of computational intelligence methods to model conflict. Traditionally, conflict has been modeled using game theory. The inherent limitation of game theory when dealing with more than three players in a game is the main motivation for the application of computational intelligence in modeling conflict.Militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) are defined as a set of interactions between, or among, states that can result in the display, threat or actual use of military force in an explicit way. These interactions can result in either peace or conflict. This book models the relationship between key variables and the risk of conflict between two countries. The variables include Allies which measures the presence or absence of military alliance, Contiguity which measures whether the countries share a common boundary or not and Major Power which measures whether either or both states are a major power.Militarized Conflict Modeling Using Computational Intelligence implements various multi-layer perception neural networks, Bayesian networks, support vector machines, neuro-fuzzy models, rough sets models, neuro-rough sets models and optimized rough sets models to create models that estimate the risk of conflict given the variables. Secondly, these models are used to study the sensitivity of each variable to conflict. Furthermore, a framework on how these models can be used to control the possibility of peace is proposed. Finally, new and emerging topics on modelling conflict are identified and further work is proposed.

Probabilistic Finite Element Model Updating Using Bayesian Statistics: Applications to Aeronautical and Mechanical Engineering  Tshilidzi Marwala and Ilyes Boulkaibet, University of Johannesburg, South AfricaSondipon Adhikari, Swansea University, UK  Covers the probabilistic finite element model based on Bayesian statistics with applications to aeronautical and mechanical engineering  Finite element models are used widely to model the dynamic behaviour of many systems including in electrical, aerospace and mechanical engineering.The book covers probabilistic finite element model updating, achieved using Bayesian statistics. The Bayesian framework is employed to estimate the probabilistic finite element models which take into account of the uncertainties in the measurements and the modelling procedure. The Bayesian formulation achieves this by formulating the finite element model as the posterior distribution of the model given the measured data within the context of computational statistics and applies these in aeronautical and mechanical engineering.Probabilistic Finite Element Model Updating Using Bayesian Statistics contains simple explanations of computational statistical techniques such as Metropolis-Hastings Algorithm, Slice sampling, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, hybrid Monte Carlo as well as Shadow Hybrid Monte Carlo and their relevance in engineering.  Key features: Contains several contributions in the area of model updating using Bayesian techniques which are useful for graduate students.Explains in detail the use of Bayesian techniques to quantify uncertainties in mechanical structures as well as the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to evaluate the Bayesian formulations.  The book is essential reading for researchers, practitioners and students in mechanical and aerospace engineering.

The book focuses on smart computing for crowdfunding usage, looking at the crowdfunding landscape, e.g., reward-, donation-, equity-, P2P-based and the crowdfunding ecosystem, e.g., regulator, asker, backer, investor, and operator. The increased complexity of fund raising scenario, driven by the broad economic environment as well as the need for using alternative funding sources, has sparked research in smart computing techniques. Covering a wide range of detailed topics, the authors of this book offer an outstanding overview of the current state of the art; providing deep insights into smart computing methods, tools, and their applications in crowdfunding; exploring the importance of smart analysis, prediction, and decision-making within the fintech industry. This book is intended to be an authoritative and valuable resource for professional practitioners and researchers alike, as well as finance engineering, and computer science students who are interested in crowdfunding and other emerging fintech topics.

Condition Monitoring Using Computational Intelligence Methods promotes the various approaches gathered under the umbrella of computational intelligence to show how condition monitoring can be used to avoid equipment failures and lengthen its useful life, minimize downtime and reduce maintenance costs. The text introduces various signal-processing and pre-processing techniques, wavelets and principal component analysis, for example, together with their uses in condition monitoring and details the development of effective feature extraction techniques classified into frequency-, time-frequency- and time-domain analysis. Data generated by these techniques can then be used for condition classification employing tools such as:• fuzzy systems; rough and neuro-rough sets; neural and Bayesian networks;hidden Markov and Gaussian mixture models; and support vector machines.

Militarized Conflict Modeling Using Computational Intelligence examines the application of computational intelligence methods to model conflict. Traditionally, conflict has been modeled using game theory. The inherent limitation of game theory when dealing with more than three players in a game is the main motivation for the application of computational intelligence in modeling conflict.Militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) are defined as a set of interactions between, or among, states that can result in the display, threat or actual use of military force in an explicit way. These interactions can result in either peace or conflict. This book models the relationship between key variables and the risk of conflict between two countries. The variables include Allies which measures the presence or absence of military alliance, Contiguity which measures whether the countries share a common boundary or not and Major Power which measures whether either or both states are a major power.Militarized Conflict Modeling Using Computational Intelligence implements various multi-layer perception neural networks, Bayesian networks, support vector machines, neuro-fuzzy models, rough sets models, neuro-rough sets models and optimized rough sets models to create models that estimate the risk of conflict given the variables. Secondly, these models are used to study the sensitivity of each variable to conflict. Furthermore, a framework on how these models can be used to control the possibility of peace is proposed. Finally, new and emerging topics on modelling conflict are identified and further work is proposed.

Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods examines the application of artificial intelligence methods to model economic data.

FEM updating allows FEMs to be tuned better to reflect measured data. It can be conducted using two different statistical frameworks: the maximum likelihood approach and Bayesian approaches. This book applies both strategies to the field of structural mechanics, using vibration data.Computational intelligence techniques including: multi-layer perceptron neural networks; particle swarm and GA-based optimization methods; simulated annealing; response surface methods; and expectation maximization algorithms, are proposed to facilitate the updating process.Based on these methods, the most appropriate updated FEM is selected, a problem that traditional FEM updating has not addressed. This is found to incorporate engineering judgment into finite elements through the formulations of prior distributions.Case studies, demonstrating the principles test the viability of the approaches, and. by critically analysing the state of the art in FEM updating, this book identifies new research directions.

Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods examines the application of artificial intelligence methods to model economic data. Traditionally, economic modeling has been modeled in the linear domain where the principles of superposition are valid. The application of artificial intelligence for economic modeling allows for a flexible multi-order non-linear modeling. In addition, game theory has largely been applied in economic modeling. However, the inherent limitation of game theory when dealing with many player games encourages the use of multi-agent systems for modeling economic phenomena.The artificial intelligence techniques used to model economic data include:multi-layer perceptron neural networksradial basis functionssupport vector machinesrough setsgenetic algorithmparticle swarm optimizationsimulated annealingmulti-agent systemincremental learningfuzzy networksSignal processing techniques are explored to analyze economic data, and these techniques are the time domain methods, time-frequency domain methods and fractals dimension approaches. Interesting economic problems such as causality versus correlation, simulating the stock market, modeling and controling inflation, option pricing, modeling economic growth as well as portfolio optimization are examined. The relationship between economic dependency and interstate conflict is explored, and knowledge on how economics is useful to foster peace – and vice versa – is investigated. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods deals with the issue of causality in the non-linear domain and applies the automatic relevance determination, the evidence framework, Bayesian approach and Granger causality to understand causality and correlation.Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods makes an important contribution to the area of econometrics,and is a valuable source of reference for graduate students, researchers and financial practitioners.

Condition Monitoring Using Computational Intelligence Methods promotes the various approaches gathered under the umbrella of computational intelligence to show how condition monitoring can be used to avoid equipment failures and lengthen its useful life, minimize downtime and reduce maintenance costs. The text introduces various signal-processing and pre-processing techniques, wavelets and principal component analysis, for example, together with their uses in condition monitoring and details the development of effective feature extraction techniques classified into frequency-, time-frequency- and time-domain analysis. Data generated by these techniques can then be used for condition classification employing tools such as:• fuzzy systems; rough and neuro-rough sets; neural and Bayesian networks;hidden Markov and Gaussian mixture models; and support vector machines.

FEM updating allows FEMs to be tuned better to reflect measured data. It can be conducted using two different statistical frameworks: the maximum likelihood approach and Bayesian approaches. This book applies both strategies to the field of structural mechanics, using vibration data.Computational intelligence techniques including: multi-layer perceptron neural networks; particle swarm and GA-based optimization methods; simulated annealing; response surface methods; and expectation maximization algorithms, are proposed to facilitate the updating process.Based on these methods, the most appropriate updated FEM is selected, a problem that traditional FEM updating has not addressed. This is found to incorporate engineering judgment into finite elements through the formulations of prior distributions.Case studies, demonstrating the principles test the viability of the approaches, and. by critically analysing the state of the art in FEM updating, this book identifies new research directions.

Deep Learning and Missing Data in Engineering Systems uses deep learning and swarm intelligence methods to cover missing data estimation in engineering systems. The missing data estimation processes proposed in the book can be applied in image recognition and reconstruction. To facilitate the imputation of missing data, several artificial intelligence approaches are presented, including:deep autoencoder neural networks;deep denoising autoencoder networks;the bat algorithm;the cuckoo search algorithm; andthe firefly algorithm.The hybrid models proposed are used to estimate the missing data in high-dimensional data settings more accurately. Swarm intelligence algorithms are applied to address critical questions such as model selection and model parameter estimation. The authors address feature extraction for the purpose of reconstructing the input data from reduced dimensions by the use of deep autoencoder neural networks. They illustrate new models diagrammatically, report their findings in tables, so as to put their methods on a sound statistical basis. The methods proposed speed up the process of data estimation while preserving known features of the data matrix. This book is a valuable source of information for researchers and practitioners in data science. Advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students studying topics in computational intelligence and big data, can also use the book as a reference for identifying and introducing new research thrusts in missing data estimation.

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) seizes all aspects of human life, there is a fundamental shift in the way in which humans are thinking of and doing things. Ordinarily, humans have relied on economics and finance theories to make sense of, and predict concepts such as comparative advantage, long run economic growth, lack or distortion of information and failures, role of labour as a factor of production and the decision making process for the purpose of allocating resources among other theories. Of interest though is that literature has not attempted to utilize these advances in technology in order to modernize economic and finance theories that are fundamental in the decision making process for the purpose of allocating scarce resources among other things. With the simulated intelligence in machines, which allows machines to act like humans and to some extent even anticipate events better than humans, thanks to their ability to handle massive data sets, this book will use artificialintelligence to explain what these economic and finance theories mean in the context of the agent wanting to make a decision.The main feature of finance and economic theories is that they try to eliminate the effects of uncertainties by attempting to bring the future to the present. The fundamentals of this statement is deeply rooted in risk and risk management. In behavioural sciences, economics as a discipline has always provided a well-established foundation for understanding uncertainties and what this means for decision making. Finance and economics have done this through different models which attempt to predict the future. On its part, risk management attempts to hedge or mitigate these uncertainties in order for “the planner” to reach the favourable outcome. This book focuses on how AI is to redefine certain important economic and financial theories that are specifically used for the purpose of eliminating uncertainties so as to allow agents to make informed decisions. In effect, certain aspects of finance and economic theories cannot be understood in their entirety without the incorporation of AI.

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) seizes all aspects of human life, there is a fundamental shift in the way in which humans are thinking of and doing things. Ordinarily, humans have relied on economics and finance theories to make sense of, and predict concepts such as comparative advantage, long run economic growth, lack or distortion of information and failures, role of labour as a factor of production and the decision making process for the purpose of allocating resources among other theories. Of interest though is that literature has not attempted to utilize these advances in technology in order to modernize economic and finance theories that are fundamental in the decision making process for the purpose of allocating scarce resources among other things. With the simulated intelligence in machines, which allows machines to act like humans and to some extent even anticipate events better than humans, thanks to their ability to handle massive data sets, this book will use artificialintelligence to explain what these economic and finance theories mean in the context of the agent wanting to make a decision.The main feature of finance and economic theories is that they try to eliminate the effects of uncertainties by attempting to bring the future to the present. The fundamentals of this statement is deeply rooted in risk and risk management. In behavioural sciences, economics as a discipline has always provided a well-established foundation for understanding uncertainties and what this means for decision making. Finance and economics have done this through different models which attempt to predict the future. On its part, risk management attempts to hedge or mitigate these uncertainties in order for “the planner” to reach the favourable outcome. This book focuses on how AI is to redefine certain important economic and financial theories that are specifically used for the purpose of eliminating uncertainties so as to allow agents to make informed decisions. In effect, certain aspects of finance and economic theories cannot be understood in their entirety without the incorporation of AI.

The book explores technological advances in the fourth industrial revolution (4IR), which is based on a variety of technologies such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, machine learning, big data, additive printing, cloud computing, and virtual and augmented reality.

The book explores technological advances in the fourth industrial revolution (4IR), which is based on a variety of technologies such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, machine learning, big data, additive printing, cloud computing, and virtual and augmented reality.

This book explains how various forms of artificial intelligence, namely machine learning, natural language processing, and robotic process automation, could provide a source of competitive advantage to firms deploying them compared to those firms that would not have deployed these technologies.

This book explains how various forms of artificial intelligence, namely machine learning, natural language processing, and robotic process automation, could provide a source of competitive advantage to firms deploying them compared to those firms that would not have deployed these technologies.

This book offers a comprehensive discussion of the Bayesian inference framework and demonstrates why this probabilistic approach is ideal for tackling the various modelling problems within quantitative finance.

Develops insights into solving complex problems in engineering, biomedical sciences, social science and economics based on artificial intelligence. Some of the problems studied are in interstate conflict, credit scoring, breast cancer diagnosis, condition monitoring, wine testing, image processing and optical character recognition. The author discusses and applies the concept of flexibly-bounded rationality which prescribes that the bounds in Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon’s bounded rationality theory are flexible due to advanced signal processing techniques, Moore’s Law and artificial intelligence.Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making examines and defines the concepts of causal and correlation machines and applies the transmission theory of causality as a defining factor that distinguishes causality from correlation. It develops the theory of rational counterfactuals which are defined as counterfactuals that are intended to maximize theattainment of a particular goal within the context of a bounded rational decision making process. Furthermore, it studies four methods for dealing with irrelevant information in decision making:Theory of the marginalization of irrelevant information Principal component analysis Independent component analysisAutomatic relevance determination methodIn addition it studies the concept of group decision making and various ways of effecting group decision making within the context of artificial intelligence.Rich in methods of artificial intelligence including rough sets, neural networks, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, incremental learning and fuzzy networks, this book will be welcomed by researchers and students working in these areas.

Develops insights into solving complex problems in engineering, biomedical sciences, social science and economics based on artificial intelligence. Some of the problems studied are in interstate conflict, credit scoring, breast cancer diagnosis, condition monitoring, wine testing, image processing and optical character recognition. The author discusses and applies the concept of flexibly-bounded rationality which prescribes that the bounds in Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon’s bounded rationality theory are flexible due to advanced signal processing techniques, Moore’s Law and artificial intelligence.Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making examines and defines the concepts of causal and correlation machines and applies the transmission theory of causality as a defining factor that distinguishes causality from correlation. It develops the theory of rational counterfactuals which are defined as counterfactuals that are intended to maximize theattainment of a particular goal within the context of a bounded rational decision making process. Furthermore, it studies four methods for dealing with irrelevant information in decision making:Theory of the marginalization of irrelevant information Principal component analysis Independent component analysisAutomatic relevance determination methodIn addition it studies the concept of group decision making and various ways of effecting group decision making within the context of artificial intelligence.Rich in methods of artificial intelligence including rough sets, neural networks, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, incremental learning and fuzzy networks, this book will be welcomed by researchers and students working in these areas.