Winston Yu - Böcker

This book was undertaken at a pivotal time in the region. The weak summer monsoon in 2009 created drought conditions throughout Pakistan. This followed an already tenuous situation for many rural households faced with high fuel and fertilizer costs and the impacts of rising global food prices. Then catastrophic monsoon flooding in 2010 affected over 20 million people, devastating their housing, infrastructure, and crops. Damages from this single flood event were estimated at US$10 billion, half of which were losses in the agriculture sector. Notwithstanding the debate as to whether these observed extremes are evidence of climate change, an investigation is needed regarding the extent to which the country is resilient to these shocks. It is thus timely, if not critical, to focus on climate risks for water, agriculture, and food security in the Indus Basin in Pakistan. This study uses several different modelling environments including hydrologic models, an agro-economic optimisation model of the irrigation system, and a computable general equilibrium model of the Pakistan economy. The models used here are among the best mathematical representations available of the physical and economic responses to these exogenous future climate risks. The integrated systems framework used in this analysis provides a broad and unique approach to estimating the hydrologic and crop impacts of climate change risks, the macro-economic and household-level responses and an effective method for assessing a variety of adaptation investments and policies. A better understanding of how these sectors are linked will help plan future investments in these sectors. Further collection and analysis of critical input and output observations (e.g. snow and ice data) as well as practical measures for improving productivity under a changing climate will enhance this integrated framework methodology and future climate impact assessments. Continued refinements to the assessment approach developed in this volume will further help to sharpen critical policies and interventions by the Pakistan government.

Managing climate variability and change remains a key development and food security issue in Bangladesh. Despite significant investments, floods, droughts, and cyclones during the last two decades continue to cause extensive economic damage and impair livelihoods. Climate change will pose additional risks to ongoing efforts to reduce poverty. This book examines the implications of climate change on food security in Bangladesh and identifies adaptation measures in the agriculture sector using a comprehensive integrated framework.First, the most recent science available is used to characterize current climate and hydrology and its potential changes. Second, country-specific survey and biophysical data is used to derive more realistic and accurate agricultural impact functions and simulations. A range of climate risks (i.e. warmer temperatures, higher carbon dioxide concentrations, changing characteristics of floods, droughts and potential sea level rise) is considered to gain a more complete picture of potential agriculture impacts. Third, while estimating changes in production is important, economic responses may to some degree buffer against the physical losses predicted, and an assessment is made of these. Food security is dependent not only on production, but also future food requirements, income levels and commodity prices. Finally, adaptation possibilities are identified for the sector. This book is the first to combine these multiple disciplines and analytical procedures to comprehensively address these impacts. The framework will serve as a useful guide to design policy intervention strategies and investments in adaptation measures.

This study takes stock of the current water resources management in Armenia, including diagnosing the main sub-sectors (agriculture, urban, environment, and energy), reviewing the institutional framework and implementation status of water-sector policies, identifying the main challenges and making recommendations on the next steps.