Yuri Ermoliev – författare
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5 produkter
5 produkter
1 068 kr
Skickas inom 10-15 vardagar
Ongoing global changes bring fundamentally new scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge our traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. The uncertainty critically dominantes, e.g., the climate change debates. In short, the dilemma is concerned with enormous costs vs. massive uncertainties of potential extreme impacts. Traditional scientific approaches usually rely on real observations and experiments. Yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and "pure" experiments and learning by doing may be very expensive, dangerous, or simply impossible. In addition, available historical observations are contaminated by actions, policies. The complexity of new problems does not allow to achieve enough certainty by increasing the resolution of models or by bringing in more links. Hence, new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty are needed, as given in this book.
Del 532 - Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems
Dynamic Stochastic Optimization
Häftad, Engelska, 2003
1 054 kr
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This volume considers optimal stochastic decision processes from the viewpoint of stochastic programming. It focuses on theoretical properties and on approximate or numerical solution techniques for time-dependent optimization problems with random parameters (multistage stochastic programs, optimal stochastic decision processes). Methods for finding approximate solutions of probabilistic and expected cost based deterministic substitute problems are presented. Besides theoretical and numerical considerations, the proceedings volume contains selected refereed papers on many practical applications to economics and engineering: risk, risk management, portfolio management, finance, insurance-matters and control of robots.
1 068 kr
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Support for addressing the on-going global changes needs solutions for new scientific problems which in turn require new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of irreducible uncertainties, including extreme events of high multidimensional consequences, e.g., the climate change. The dilemma is concerned with enormous costs versus massive uncertainties of extreme impacts. Traditional scientific approaches rely on real observations and experiments. Yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and "pure" experiments, and learning by doing may be expensive, dangerous, or impossible. In addition, the available historical observations are often contaminated by past actions, and policies. Thus, tools are presented for the explicit treatment of uncertainties using "synthetic" information composed of available "hard" data from historical observations, the results of possible experiments, and scientific facts, as well as "soft" data from experts' opinions, and scenarios.
Managing Safety of Heterogeneous Systems
Decisions under Uncertainties and Risks
Häftad, Engelska, 2012
1 068 kr
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Managing safety of diverse systems requires decision-making under uncertainties and risks. Such systems are typically characterized by spatio-temporal heterogeneities, inter-dependencies, externalities, endogenous risks, discontinuities, irreversibility, practically irreducible uncertainties, and rare events with catastrophic consequences. Traditional scientific approaches rely on data from real observations and experiments; yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and experiments are usually impossible. Therefore, science-based support for addressing such new class of problems needs to replace the traditional “deterministic predictions” analysis by new methods and tools for designing decisions that are robust against the involved uncertainties and risks. The new methods treat uncertainties explicitly by using “synthetic” information derived by integration of “hard” elements, including available data, results of possible experiments, and formal representations of scientific facts, with “soft” elements based on diverse representations of scenarios and opinions of public, stakeholders, and experts. The volume presents such effective new methods, and illustrates their applications in different problem areas, including engineering, economy, finance, agriculture, environment, and policy making.
Del 10 - Springer Series in Computational Mathematics
Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization
Häftad, Engelska, 2011
537 kr
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Rapid changes in today's environment emphasize the need for models and meth ods capable of dealing with the uncertainty inherent in virtually all systems re lated to economics, meteorology, demography, ecology, etc. Systems involving interactions between man, nature and technology are subject to disturbances which may be unlike anything which has been experienced in the past. In the technological revolution increases uncertainty-as each new stage particular, perturbs existing knowledge of structures, limitations and constraints. At the same time, many systems are often too complex to allow for precise measure ment of the parameters or the state of the system. Uncertainty, nonstationarity, disequilibrium are pervasivE' characteristics of most modern systems. In order to manage such situations (or to survive in such an environment) we must develop systems which can facilitate oar response to uncertainty and changing conditions. In our individual behavior we often follow guidelines that are conditioned by the need to be prepared for all (likely) eventualities: insur ance, wearing seat·belts, savings versus investments, annual medical check.ups, even keeping an umbrella at the office, etc. One can identify two major types of mechanisms: the short term adaptive adjustments (defensive driving, mar keting, inventory control, etc.) that are made after making some observations of the system's parameters, and the long term anticipative actions (engineer ing design, policy setting, allocation of resources, investment strategies, etc.).