RAND Studies in Policy Analysis – serie

Unwelcome surprises in the life of any organization can often be traced to the failure of an assumption that the organization's leadership didn't anticipate or had 'forgotten' it was making. Assumption-based planning (ABP) is a tool for identifying as many as possible of the assumptions underlying the plans of an organization and bringing those assumptions explicitly into the planning process. This book presents a variety of techniques for rooting out those vulnerable, crucial assumptions. The book also presents steps for monitoring all the vulnerable assumptions of a plan, for taking actions to control those vulnerable assumptions where possible, and for preparing the organization for the potential failure of those assumptions where control is not possible. The book provides a variety of examples and practical advice for those interested in carrying out an application of ABP in the fields of business, management, strategic planning, engineering, and in military applications.

Successful coercion should be relatively simple for the United States. Since the demise of the Soviet Union, the United States is without rivals in military might, political influence, or economic strength. Yet despite the lopsided US edge in raw power, regional foes persist in defying the threats and ultimatums brought by the United States and its allies. This book examines why some attempts to strong-arm an adversary work while others do not. It explores how coercion today differs from coercion during the Cold War. It describes the constraints on the United States emanating from the need to work within coalitions and the restrictions imposed by domestic politics, and it assesses the special challenges likely to arise when an adversary is a non-state actor or when the use of weapons of mass destruction is possible.

As the East Asian financial crisis continues to leave a path of destruction economically and politically in its wake, people all over the world seek to know what went wrong. Many blame the illiberal markets of the countries involved and many blame their political leadership. This book, first published in 2000, explores how strong, open, liberalized markets create a counterbalance to crony capitalism and corruption and form the basis for a foundation of political liberalization. Using both a quantitative model and qualititative country studies, this work analyzes the experiences of China, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Korea in moving toward both marketization and democracy.

The world of intelligence has been completely transformed by the end of the Cold War and the onset of an age of information. Prior to the 1990s, US government intelligence had one principal target, the Soviet Union; a narrow set of 'customers', the political and military officials of the US government; and a limited set of information from the sources they owned, spy satellites and spies. Today, world intelligence has many targets, numerous consumers - not all of whom are American or in the government - and too much information, most of which is not owned by the U.S. government and is of widely varying reliability. In this bold and penetrating study, Gregory Treverton, former Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council and Senate investigator, offers his insider's views on how intelligence gathering and analysis must change. He suggests why intelligence needs to be both contrarian, leaning against the conventional wisdom, and attentive to the longer term, leaning against the growing shorter time horizons of Washington policy makers. He urges that the solving of intelligence puzzles tap expertise outside government - in the academy, think tanks, and Wall Street - to make these parties colleagues and co-consumers of intelligence, befitting the changed role of government from doer to convener, mediator, and coalition-builder.

The world of intelligence has been completely transformed by the end of the Cold War and the onset of an age of information. Prior to the 1990s, US government intelligence had one principal target, the Soviet Union; a narrow set of 'customers', the political and military officials of the US government; and a limited set of information from the sources they owned, spy satellites and spies. Today, world intelligence has many targets, numerous consumers - not all of whom are American or in the government - and too much information, most of which is not owned by the U.S. government and is of widely varying reliability. In this bold and penetrating study, Gregory Treverton, former Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council and Senate investigator, offers his insider's views on how intelligence gathering and analysis must change. He suggests why intelligence needs to be both contrarian, leaning against the conventional wisdom, and attentive to the longer term, leaning against the growing shorter time horizons of Washington policy makers. He urges that the solving of intelligence puzzles tap expertise outside government - in the academy, think tanks, and Wall Street - to make these parties colleagues and co-consumers of intelligence, befitting the changed role of government from doer to convener, mediator, and coalition-builder.

This volume offers the first detailed statement by a contingent of RAND thinkers on the contours of a redefined Atlantic partnership. In the world emerging since the end of the Cold War, the United States and Europe have strikingly common global security and economic interests. But their ability to advance those interests, together, depends on the willingness of Europe to take on greater responsibilities, the willingness of the United States to share leadership, and the vision of both to form a far more ambitious partnership than the one of today's official policies. This work will interest policy and research audiences in world affairs, global business readers, and others engaged in or thinking about America's international role and relations.

This rich volume provides a comprehensive look at how policy leads to better health in Asia. Leading RAND thinkers, working in different disciplines, create an all-encompassing framework for students, scholars, and policymakers, clarifying what is known and still needs to be known about how policy and practice lead to better health outcomes in developing countries. Drawing on their broad experience, the authors explore the health effects of macroeconomic development, education, and technology. After making compelling arguments about the need for policymakers to use and demand evidence-based policy, they investigate the epidemiology of persistent infectious diseases and the rapid ascendancy of chronic diseases in the elderly, showing how effectively appropriate clinical medicine addresses illness and promotes well-being. Emphasis is placed on examining equity-improving solutions to ascertain how and where they have helped the poor, women, and other vulnerable populations. The book concludes with a discussion of politics, priorities, the private sector, and what role health departments should play to translate policy objectives into better health.

This volume offers the first detailed statement by a contingent of RAND thinkers on the contours of a redefined Atlantic partnership. In the world emerging since the end of the Cold War, the United States and Europe have strikingly common global security and economic interests. But their ability to advance those interests, together, depends on the willingness of Europe to take on greater responsibilities, the willingness of the United States to share leadership, and the vision of both to form a far more ambitious partnership than the one of today's official policies. This work will interest policy and research audiences in world affairs, global business readers, and others engaged in or thinking about America's international role and relations.

As the East Asian financial crisis continues to leave a path of destruction economically and politically in its wake, people all over the world seek to know what went wrong. Many blame the illiberal markets of the countries involved and many blame their political leadership. This book, first published in 2000, explores how strong, open, liberalized markets create a counterbalance to crony capitalism and corruption and form the basis for a foundation of political liberalization. Using both a quantitative model and qualititative country studies, this work analyzes the experiences of China, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Korea in moving toward both marketization and democracy.

This book provides the first multidisciplinary and nonpartisan analysis of how the United States should decide on the legal status of cocaine, heroin and marijuana. It draws on data about the experiences of Western European nations with less punitive drug policies as well as new analyses of America's experience with legal cocaine and heroin a century ago, and of America's efforts to regulate gambling, prostitution, alcohol and cigarettes. It offers projections on the likely consequences of a number of different legalization regimes and shows that the choice about how to regulate drugs involves complicated tradeoffs among goals and conflict among social groups. The book presents a sophisticated discussion of how society should deal with the uncertainty about the consequences of legal change. Finally, it explains, in terms of individual attitudes toward risk, why it is so difficult to accomplish substantial reform of drug policy in America.

Unwelcome surprises in the life of any organization can often be traced to the failure of an assumption that the organization's leadership didn't anticipate or had 'forgotten' it was making. Assumption-based planning (ABP) is a tool for identifying as many as possible of the assumptions underlying the plans of an organization and bringing those assumptions explicitly into the planning process. This book presents a variety of techniques for rooting out those vulnerable, crucial assumptions. The book also presents steps for monitoring all the vulnerable assumptions of a plan, for taking actions to control those vulnerable assumptions where possible, and for preparing the organization for the potential failure of those assumptions where control is not possible. The book provides a variety of examples and practical advice for those interested in carrying out an application of ABP in the fields of business, management, strategic planning, engineering, and in military applications.