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Thi s book ari ses from The Fourth European Coll oqui urn on Theoret i ca 1 and Quant itat i ve Geography wh i ch was he 1 din Ve 1 dhoven, The Netherlands in September 1985. It contains a series of papers on spatial choice dynamics and dynamical spatial systems which were presented at the colloquium, together with a few other soll icited ones. The book is intended primarily as a state-of-the art review of mainly European research on these two fastly growing problem areas. As a consequence of this decision, the book contains a selection of papers that differs in terms of focus, level of sophistication and conceptual background. Evidently, the dissimination of ideas and computer software is a time-related phenomenon, which in the European context is amplified by differences in language, the profile of geography and the formal training of geographers. The book reflects such differences. It would have been impossible to produce this book without the support of the various European study groups on theoretical and quantitative geography. Without their help the meetings from which this volumes originates would not have been held in the first place. We are also indebted to the Royal Dutch Academy of Science for partly funding the colloquium, and to SISWO and TNOjPSC for providing general support in the organisation of the conference.
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The efficiency of computational methods and the choice of the most efficient methods for solving a specific problem or a specific class of problems have always played an important role in numerical analysis. Optimization of the computerized solution process is now a major problem of applied mathematics, which stimulates the search for new computational methods and ways to implement them. In "Minimax Models in the theory of Numerical Methods", methods for estimating the efficiency of computational algorithms and problems of their optimality are studied within the framework of a general computation model. The subjects dealt with in this are very different from the traditional subjects of computational methods. Close attention is paid to adaptive (sequential) computational algorithms, the process of computation being regarded as a controlled process and the algorithm as a control strategy. This approach allows methods of game theory and other methods of operations research and systems analysis to be widely used for constructing optimal algorithms.The goal underlying the study of the various comutation models dealt with in this title is the construction of concrete numerical algorithms admitting programme implementation. The central role belongs to the concept of a sequentially optimal algorithms, which in many cases reflects the characterics of real-life computational processes more fully than the traditional optimality concepts.
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This text aims to provide practical models and methods for the quantitative analysis of financial asset prices, construction of various portfolios, and computer-assisted trading systems. In particular, it should be helpful reading for "Quants" (quantitatively-inclined analysts) in financial industries, financial engineers in investment banks; securities companies, derivative-trading companies, and software houses who are developing portfolio trading systems; graduate students and specialists in the areas of finance, business, hardbound economics, statistics, financial engineering; investors who are interested in Japanese financial markets. Throughout the book the emphasis is placed on the originality and usefulness of models and methods for the construction of portfolios and investment decision making, and examples are provided to demonstrate, analysis, models for Japanese financial markets.
Non-Classical Logics and Their Applications to Fuzzy Subsets
Handbook of the Mathematical Foundations of Fuzzy Set Theory
Inbunden, Engelska, 1995
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This work is devoted to a study of various relations between non-classical logics and fuzzy sets. This volume is aimed at all those who are interested in a deeper understanding of the mathematical foundations of fuzzy set theory, particularly in intuitionistic logic, Lukasiewicz logic, monoidal logic, fuzzy logic and topos-like categories. The tutorial nature of the longer chapters, the comprehensive bibliography and index should make it suitable as a valuable and important reference for graduate students as well as research workers in the field of non-classical logics. The book is arranged in three parts: part A presents the most recent developments in the theory of Heyting algebras, MV-algebras, quantales and GL-monoids; part B gives a coherent and current account of topos-like categories for fuzzy set theory based on Heyting algebra valued sets, quantal sets of M-valued sets; part C addresses general aspects of non-classical logics including epistemological problems as well as recursive properties of fuzzy logic.
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My interest in non-Archimedean utility theory and the problems related to it was aroused by discussions which I have had with Professors Werner Leinfellner and Günter Menges. On the occasion of the Second Inter national Game Theory Workshop, Berkeley, 1970, which was sponsored by the National Science Foundation, I had the opportunity to report about a result on non-standard utilities. Work on this subject continued when I was a research assistant of Professor Günter Menges at the Uni versity of Heidelberg. The present mono graph is essentially a translation of my habilitation thesis which was accepted on February 15, 1973 by the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences at the Universtity of Heidelberg. On translating my thesis I took up some suggestions made by ProfessorWerner Böge from the Faculty of Mathematics at the Uni versity of Heidelberg. Through lack of time many of his ideas have not been taken into consideration but I hope to do so in a future paper. The first chapter should be considered as a short introduction to pref erence orderings and to the notion of a utility theory proposed by Dana Scott and Patrick Suppes. In the second chapter I discuss in some detail various problems of ordinal utility theory. Except when introducing non-standard models of the reals no use is made of concepts of model theory. This is done in deference to those readers who do not wish to be troubled by formal languages and model theory.
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The present volume collects some of the talks given at the Bertrand Russell Colloquium on Exact Philosophy, attached to the McGill University Foundations and Philosophy of Science Unit. It also includes a paper, on Bertrand Russell's method of philosophizing, read at the memorial symposium held at Sir Gorge Williams University shortly after the philosopher's death. All the papers appear here for the first time. Unlike many a philosophy of science anthology, this one is not center ed on the philosophy of physics. In fact the papers deal with conceptual and, in particular, philosophical problems that pop up in almost every one of the provinces of the vast territory constituted by the foundations, meth odology and philosophy of science. A couple of border territories which are in the process of being infiltrated have been added for good measure. The inclusion of papers in the philosophy of formal science and in the philosophies of physics and of biology, in a volume belonging to a series devoted to the philosophy and methodology of the social and behavioral sciences, should raise no eyebrows. Because the sciences of man make use of logic and mathematics, they are interested in questions such as whether the formal sciences have anything to do with reality (rather than with our theories about reality) and whether or not logic has kept up with the practice of mathematicians. These two problems are tackled in Part II, on the philosophy of formal science.
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The present volume collects some of the talks given at the Bertrand Russell Colloquium on Exact Philosophy, attached to the McGill University Foundations and Philosophy of Science Unit. It also includes a paper, on Bertrand Russell's method of philosophizing, read at the memorial symposium held at Sir Gorge Williams University shortly after the philosopher's death. All the papers appear here for the first time. Unlike many a philosophy of science anthology, this one is not center ed on the philosophy of physics. In fact the papers deal with conceptual and, in particular, philosophical problems that pop up in almost every one of the provinces of the vast territory constituted by the foundations, meth odology and philosophy of science. A couple of border territories which are in the process of being infiltrated have been added for good measure. The inclusion of papers in the philosophy of formal science and in the philosophies of physics and of biology, in a volume belonging to a series devoted to the philosophy and methodology of the social and behavioral sciences, should raise no eyebrows. Because the sciences of man make use of logic and mathematics, they are interested in questions such as whether the formal sciences have anything to do with reality (rather than with our theories about reality) and whether or not logic has kept up with the practice of mathematicians. These two problems are tackled in Part II, on the philosophy of formal science.
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Under the title 'Information, Inference and Decision' this volume in the Theory and Decision Library presents some papers on issues from the borderland of statistical inference philosophy and epistemology, written by statisticians and decision theorists who belonged or are allied to the former Saarbriicken school of statistical decision theory. In the first part I make an attempt to outline an objective theory of inductive behaviour, on the basis of R. A. Fisher's statistical inference philosophy, on the one hand, and R. Carnap's inductive logic, on the other. A special problem arising in the context of the new theory, viz., the problem of vagueness of concepts (in particular in the social sciences) is treated separately by H. Skala and myself. B. Leiner has contributed some biographical and bibliographical notes on the objective theory of inductive behaviour. Part II is concerned with inference philosophy. D. A. S. Fraser, the founder of structural inference theory, characterizes and compares some inference philosophies, and discusses his own and the arguments of the critics of his structural theory. In my opinion, Fraser's structural infer ence theory is suited to complete Fisher's inference philosophy in some essential points, if not to replace it. An interesting task for future re search work is to establish the connection between Fraser's theory and Carnap's ideas in the framework of an objective theory of inductive behaviour.
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Game theory could be formally defined as a theory of rational decision in conflict situations. Models of such situations, as they are conceived in game theory, involve (1) a set of decision makers, called players; (2) a set of strategies available to each player; (3) a set of outcomes, each of which is a result of particular choices of strategies made by the players on a given play of the game; and (4) a set of payoffs accorded to each player in each of the possible outcomes. It is assumed that each player is 'individually rational', in the sense that his preference ordering of the outcomes is determined by the order of magnitudes of his (and only his) associated payoffs. Further, a player is rational in the sense that he assumes that every other player is rational in the above sense. The rational player utilizes knowledge of the other players' payoffs in guiding his choice of strategy, because it gives him information about how the other players' choices are guided. Since, in general, the orders of magnitude of the payoffs that accrue to the several players in the several outcomes do not coincide, a game of strategy is a model of a situation involving conflicts of interests.
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'Human Communication' is a field of interest of enormous breadth, being one which has concerned students of many different disciplines. It spans the imagined 'gap' between the 'arts' and the 'sciences', but it forms no unified academic subject. There is no commonly accepted terminology to cover aU aspects. The eight articles comprising this book have been chosen to illustrate something of the diversity yet, at the same time, to be comprehensible to readers from different academic disciplines. They cannot pretend to cover the whole field! Some attempt has been made to present them in an order which represents a continuity of theme, though this is merely an opinion. Most publications of this type form the proceedings of some sympo sium, or conference. In this case, however, there has been no such unifying influence, no collaboration, no discussions. The authors have been drawn from a number of different countries. The first article, by John Marshall and Roger Wales (Great Britain) concerns the pragmatic values of communication, starting by considering bird-song and passing to the infinitely more complex 'meaningful' values of human language and pictures. The 'pragmatic aspect' means the usefulness - what does language or bird song do for humans and birds? What adaptation or survival values does it have? These questions are then considered in relation to brain specialisation for representation of experience and cognition.
Contributions to a Philosophy of Technology
Studies in the Structure of Thinking in the Technological Sciences
Inbunden, Engelska, 1974
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The highly sophisticated techniques of modern engineering are normally conceived of in practical terms. Corresponding to the instrumental function of technology, they are designed to direct the forces of nature according to human purposes. Yet, as soon as the realm of mere skills is exceeded, the intended useful results can only be achieved through planned and preconceived action processes involving the deliberately considered application of well designed tools and devices. This is to say that in all complex cases theoretical reasoning becomes an indispensable means to accomplish the pragmatic technological aims. Hence the abstracting from the actual concrete function of technology opens the way to concentrate attention on the general conceptual framework involved. If this approach is adopted the relevant knowledge and the procedures applied clearly exhibit a logic of their own. This point of view leads to a methodological and even an epistemological analysis of the theoretical structure and the specific methods of procedure characteristic of modern technology. Investigations of this kind, that can be described as belonging to an ana lytical philosophy of technology, form the topic of this anthology. The type of research in question here is closely akin to that of the philosophy of science. But it is an astonishing fact that the commonly accepted and carefully investigated philosophy of science has not yet found its counterpart in an established philosophy of technology.
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Game theory could be formally defined as a theory of rational decision in conflict situations. Models of such situations, as they are conceived in game theory, involve (1) a set of decision makers, called players; (2) a set of strategies available to each player; (3) a set of outcomes, each of which is a result of particular choices of strategies made by the players on a given play of the game; and (4) a set of payoffs accorded to each player in each of the possible outcomes. It is assumed that each player is 'individually rational', in the sense that his preference ordering of the outcomes is determined by the order of magnitudes of his (and only his) associated payoffs. Further, a player is rational in the sense that he assumes that every other player is rational in the above sense. The rational player utilizes knowledge of the other players' payoffs in guiding his choice of strategy, because it gives him information about how the other players' choices are guided. Since, in general, the orders of magnitude of the payoffs that accrue to the several players in the several outcomes do not coincide, a game of strategy is a model of a situation involving conflicts of interests.
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Philosophy of Science deals with the problem, 'What is science?' It seems that the answer to this question can only be found if we have an answer to the question, 'How does science function?' Thus, the study of the methodology of social sciences is a prominent factor in any analysis of these sciences. The history of philosophy shows clearly that the answer to the question, 'How does science function?' was the conditio sine qua non of any kind of philosophy of science, epistemology and even of logic. Aristotle, Hume, Kant, Mill, Russell, to mention a few classical authors, clearly emphasized the primacy of methodology of science for any kind of philosophy of science. One may even state that analyses of the presup positions, the foundations, the aims, goals and purposes of science are nothing else than analyses of their general and specific formal, as well as practical and empirical methods. Thus, the whole program of any phi losophy of science is dependent on the analysis of the methods of sciences and the establishment of their criteria. If the study of scientific method is the predominant factor in the philosophy of science, then all the other problems will depend on the outcome of such a study. For example, the old question of a possible unity of all social sciences will be brought to a solution by the study of the presuppositions, the methods, as well as of the criteria germane to all social sciences.
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'Human Communication' is a field of interest of enormous breadth, being one which has concerned students of many different disciplines. It spans the imagined 'gap' between the 'arts' and the 'sciences', but it forms no unified academic subject. There is no commonly accepted terminology to cover aU aspects. The eight articles comprising this book have been chosen to illustrate something of the diversity yet, at the same time, to be comprehensible to readers from different academic disciplines. They cannot pretend to cover the whole field! Some attempt has been made to present them in an order which represents a continuity of theme, though this is merely an opinion. Most publications of this type form the proceedings of some sympo sium, or conference. In this case, however, there has been no such unifying influence, no collaboration, no discussions. The authors have been drawn from a number of different countries. The first article, by John Marshall and Roger Wales (Great Britain) concerns the pragmatic values of communication, starting by considering bird-song and passing to the infinitely more complex 'meaningful' values of human language and pictures. The 'pragmatic aspect' means the usefulness - what does language or bird song do for humans and birds? What adaptation or survival values does it have? These questions are then considered in relation to brain specialisation for representation of experience and cognition.
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1. BACKGROUND The last twenty-five years have seen a large amount of psychological research in the area of behavioral decision theory. It followed the major breakthrough of decision theory that came with von Neumann and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behavior in 1944. The key concepts are probability as a measure of uncertainty and utility as a measure of value and risk. The theory prescribes, given some behavioral axioms, that alternatives should be ranked in accordance with their expected utilities. Psychologists became interested in studying how people's decision behavior agreed with what was prescribed by the theory. Three broad areas for research developed, i. e. , research relating to each of the two concepts of probability and utility, and research relating to the interaction of the two in decision stituations. The papers in this book have been selected to illustrate various aspects of how the concept of probability has been used in psychological ex perimentation. The early experiments were generated, as mentioned above, by an interest among psychologists to see how people evaluate uncertainty and quantify it in probabilistic terms. Many of these experiments set out to evaluate subjects' estimates of relative frequencies; these were situations where one had access to 'objective' answers. In the 1960's psychologists changed the focus of their studies to how people revise probabilistic judgments when they receive new information. In recent years there has been a growing interest in the cognitive processes by which people express their judgment in probabilistic terms.
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Philosophy of Science deals with the problem, 'What is science?' It seems that the answer to this question can only be found if we have an answer to the question, 'How does science function?' Thus, the study of the methodology of social sciences is a prominent factor in any analysis of these sciences. The history of philosophy shows clearly that the answer to the question, 'How does science function?' was the conditio sine qua non of any kind of philosophy of science, epistemology and even of logic. Aristotle, Hume, Kant, Mill, Russell, to mention a few classical authors, clearly emphasized the primacy of methodology of science for any kind of philosophy of science. One may even state that analyses of the presup positions, the foundations, the aims, goals and purposes of science are nothing else than analyses of their general and specific formal, as well as practical and empirical methods. Thus, the whole program of any phi losophy of science is dependent on the analysis of the methods of sciences and the establishment of their criteria. If the study of scientific method is the predominant factor in the philosophy of science, then all the other problems will depend on the outcome of such a study. For example, the old question of a possible unity of all social sciences will be brought to a solution by the study of the presuppositions, the methods, as well as of the criteria germane to all social sciences.
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This book constitutes the outcome of an international conference held at the Otto-Mobes-Volkswirtschaftsschule, Graz-Stifting( Austria), from June 16 to 22, 1974. The conference was initiated by a project group working on determinants and controls of social science development at the In stitute for Advanced Studies and Scientific Research in Vienna and or ganized by the editors of this volume. It was held under the auspices of the Austrian Ministry of Science and Research. The main topics of the conference were those at the forefront of the 'state of argumentation' (to borrow from one of our contributors) in philosophy and sociology of science ever since the controversy between Thomas S. Kuhn and Sir Karl R. Popper has sharpened our awareness for the methodological and substantial presuppositions involved with questions of growth and development in science. Let us give two examples of those topics. The borderline between sociology of science and philo sophy of science has become more and more unclear; while the work of at least some philosophers of science comes to have an empirical flavour, sociologists of science are increasingly apt to include logical and methodo logical components of the research process as their objects of examina tion. Papers included in this volume testify to both tendencies.
Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making
Selected Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary Research Conference, Rome, 3–6 September, 1973
Inbunden, Engelska, 1975
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Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.
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This book is devoted to the problems of stochastic (or probabilistic) programming. The author took as his basis the specialized lectures which he delivered to the graduates from the economic cybernetics department of Leningrad University beginning in 1967. Since 1971 the author has delivered a specialized course on Stochastic Programming to the gradu ates from the faculty of applied mathematics/management processes at Leningrad University. The present monograph consists of seven chapters. In Chapter I, which is of an introductory character, consideration is given to the problems of uncertainty and probability, used for modelling complicated systems. Fundamental indications for the classification of stochastic pro gramming problems are given. Chapter II is devoted to the analysis of various models of chance-constrained stochastic programming problems. Examples of technological and applied economic problems of management with chance-constraints are given. In Chapter III two-stage stochastic programming problems are investigated, various models are given, and these models are qualitatively analyzed. In the conclusion of the chapter consideration is given to: the transport problem with random data, the problem of the determination of production volume, and the problem of planning the flights of aircraft as two-stage stochastic programming problems. Multi-stage stochastic programming problems are investigated in Chapter IV. The dependencies between prior and posterior decision rules and decision distributions are given. Dual problems are investigated.
Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs
Proceedings of the Fifth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making, Darmstadt, 1–4 September, 1975
Inbunden, Engelska, 1977
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It is only just recently that people have the tools to judge how well they are doing when making decisions. These tools were conceptualized in the seventeenth century. Since then many people have worked to sharpen the concepts, and to explore how these can be applied further. The problems of decision-making and the theory developed correspondingly have drawn the interest of mathematicians, psychologists, statisticians, economists, philosophers, organizational experts, sociologists, not only for their general relevance, but also for a more intrinsic fascination. There are quite a few institutionalized activities to disseminate results and stimulate research in decision-making. For about a decade now a European organizational structure, centered mainly around the psy chological interest in decision-making. There have been conferences in Hamburg, Amsterdam, Uxbridge, Rome and Darmstadt. Conference papers have been partly published+. The organization has thus stabilized, and its re latively long history makes it interesting to see what kind of developments occurred, within the area of interest.
Del 17 - Theory and Decision Library
Decision Theory and Social Ethics
Issues in Social Choice
Häftad, Engelska, 1978
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Ethics, as one of the most respectable disciplines of philosophy, has undergone a drastic and revolutionary change in recent time. There are three main trends of this development. The first trend can be described as a tendency towards a rigorous formal and analytical language. This means simply that ethics has created beside its own formalized set theoretical language a variety of new formalized, logical and mathemati cal methods and concepts. Thus ethics has become a formalized meta or epidiscipline which is going to replace the traditional concepts, principles and ethical methods in the realm of social sciences. It is clear that a formalized form of ethics can be used more easily in social, economic and political theories if there are ethical conflicts to be solved. This first trend can be regarded as a conditio sine qua non for application in, and imposing ethical solutions on, social scientific theories. The second trend may be characterized as an association- or unification-tendency of a formalized and analytical ethics with decision theory. Decision theory as a new interdiscipline of social sciences is actually an assemblage of a variety of subtheories such as value-utility theory, game theory, collective decision theory, etc. Harsanyi has called this complex of subtheories a general theory of human behavior. Analytical or formal ethics is actually using this general theory of human behavior as a vehicle simply because this theory deals from the beginning with conflict solution, i. e.
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In spite of the seeming heterogeneity of topics in its title - Revolutions, Systems, and Theories - this volume purports to be something more than a random collection of Essays in Political Philosophy. The Colloquium of the Philosophy Department of the University of Western Ontario (29-31 Octo- ber, 1971) at which initial versions of the first eight papers were delivered was entitled 'Political Theory'; and while the organizers anticipated and indeed welcomed topicality in the issues accorded priority arid in the empirical evidence invoked, they were also hoping for a reasonably comprehensive explorat ion of some of the central issues of political philosophy. For this reason it was quickly decided that in such a field a philosophical focus on clarification of ordering concepts required the suppIement - and test - of researches into more particular subject maUers by social scientists. Thus, to speak in general terms (where the specializatlons and their taxonomies multi- ply fissiparously!), contributors include political scientists, economists and sociologists (Barnard, Baston, Tullock, Rapoport) as well as philosophers (Scriven, Morgenbesser, Braybrooke, TayIor), and juxtaposed as proponents and commentators *to generate exchanges across disciplinary frontiers. While the five additional invited papers are alI by professional philosophers, they extend the original Colloquium either by continuing controversy on its funda- mental issues (e. g. , Rubinoff, Nielsen, Roy) or by their continued explorations in what are acknowledged to be boundary areas (e. g. , Schick, Wartofsky). The greatest topical emphasis is that on revolution.
Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox
Contemporary Discussions of the Decisions Under Uncertainty with Allais' Rejoinder
Inbunden, Engelska, 1979
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Utility theory or, value theory in general, is certainly the cornerstone of decision theory, game theory, microecon~mics, and all social and political theories which deal with public decisions. Recently the American School of utility, founded by von N eumann Morgenstern, encountered a far-going criticism by the French School of utility represented by its founder Allais. The whole basis of the theory of decisions involving risk has been shaken and put into question. Consequently, basic research in the fundamentals of utility and value theory evolved into a crisis. Like any crisis in basic research, and this one was not an exception, it was very fruitful. One may simply say: Allais versus von Neumann-Morgenstern, or the French School of utility versus the American School, became one of the battlefields of scientific development which proved to be a most creative source of new advances and new developments in all those sciences which are based on evaluation of utilities.
Del 22 - Theory and Decision Library
Philosophical Problems of Statistical Inference
Learning from R.A. Fisher
Inbunden, Engelska, 1979
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One of the most promising trends in modem political science is the develop ment of a theory of politics as rational action. Focussing on choice as the central topic of study, rational choice theorists set out to specify what alter native an actor should prefer if he has some given knowledge of the conse quences of each alternative and wants to see his preference system as fully realized as possible. But rational choice theory is not confmed to the norma tive sphere of science. It can also be used for explanatory purposes. Then, the alternatives actually chosen are specified and the task is to explain the decisions by fmding out what considerations lay behind them. The starting point for an emerging research program at the Department of Government, Uppsala University, on 'Politics as Rational Action' is to describe the major choices in fifteen different policy areas of Swedish domes tic politics and explain why they were made.
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Instrumental Reasoning and Systems Methodology
An Epistemology of the Applied and Social Sciences
Häftad, Engelska, 1980
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This book has been written primarily for the applied and social scientist and student who longs for an integrated picture of the foundations on which his research must ultimately rest; but hopefully the book may also serve philosophers interested in applied disciplines and in systems methodology. If integration was the major motto, the need for a method ology, appropriate to the teleological peculiarities of all applied sciences, was the main impetus behind the conception of the present work. This need I felt a long time ago in my own area of analytical and empirical research in accounting theory and management science; later I had the opportunity to teach, for almost a decade, graduate seminars in Methodology which offered particular insight into the methodological needs of students of such applied disciplines as business administration, education, engineering, infor matics, etc. Out of this effort grew the present book which among other things tries, on one side, to illuminate the difference and relationship between methods of cognition and methods of decision and on the other, to sketch a framework suitable for depicting means-end relationships in a holistic setting. I believe that a systems methodology which incorporates recent endeavours of deontic logic, decision theory, information economics and related areas would be eminently suited to break the ground for such a future framework. Yet systems theory has two major shortcomings which might prevent it from evolving into the desired methodology of applied science.
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When John Harsanyi came to Stanford University as a candidate for the Ph.D., I asked him why he was bothering, since it was most un likely that he had anything to learn from us. He was already a known scho lar; in addition to some papers in economics, the first two papers in this vol ume had already been published and had dazzled me by their originality and their combination of philosophical insight and technical competence. However, I am very glad I did not discourage him; whether he learned any thing worthwhile I don't know, but we all learned much from him on the foundations of the theory of games and specifically on the outcome of bar gaining. The central focus of Harsanyi's work has continued to be in the theory of games, but especially on the foundations and conceptual problems. The theory of games, properly understood, is a very broad approach to social interaction based on individually rational behavior, and it connects closely with fundamental methodological and substantive issues in social science and in ethics. An indication of the range of Harsanyi's interest in game the ory can be found in the first paper of Part B -though in fact his owncontri butions are much broader-and in the second paper the applications to the methodology of social science. The remaining papers in that section show more specifically the richness of game theory in specific applications.
Economic Information, Decision, and Prediction
Selected Essays: Volume I Part I Economics of Decision
Häftad, Engelska, 1980
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The papers of Jacob Marschak which follow in these volumes are an extraordinary combination of original and fruitful departures in economic and social thought, superb clarity of exposition, and sensitivity to the values of earlier work and even competing traditions. They make us marvel alike at their variety, their quantity, and their quality. But they do not, even so, fully reflect Marschak's contributions to the development of social science. He has had an unusual influence as one who exercises leadership. In a formal, organizational sense, this role has been manifest in his capacity as Director of the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics, then at the University of Chicago, in that organization's most productive and influential period, and later in his central role in the Western Management Science Institute, at the University of California at Los Angeles. I can speak from first-hand knowledge about the first. His special capacities are, first, the recognition of promising new concepts and of promising young scholars, and, second, getting his colleagues to join him in developing the ideas and involving them fully in the necessary tasks. There was an unusual combination of strength and humility in his methods; a display of force in pushing the work along but a willingness, almost an insistence, on treating even the most junior associate as a fully equal colleague in intellectual develop ment, whose criticism of himself was to be encouraged. His leadership has been exercised in the absence of formal positions.
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