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    1. Data och IT
    2. Systemvetenskap och AI

    Statistics by Simulation

    A Synthetic Data Approach

    AvCarsten F. Dormann,Aaron M. Ellison

    Häftad, Engelska, 2025

    373 kr

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    1 146 kr

    Beskrivning

    An accessible guide to understanding statistics using simulations, with examples from a range of scientific disciplinesReal-world challenges such as small sample sizes, skewed distributions of data, biased sampling designs, and more predictors than data points are pushing the limits of classical statistical analysis. This textbook provides a new tool for the statistical toolkit: data simulations. It shows that using simulation and data-generating models is an excellent way to validate statistical reasoning and to augment study design and statistical analysis with planning and visualization. Although data simulations are not new to professional statisticians, Statistics by Simulation makes the approach accessible to a broader audience, with examples from many fields. It introduces the reasoning behind data simulation and then shows how to apply it in planning experiments or observational studies, developing analytical workflows, deploying model diagnostics, and developing new indices and statistical methods.• Covers all steps of statistical practice, from planning projects to post-hoc analysis and model checking• Provides examples from disciplines including sociology, psychology, ecology, economics, physics, and medicine• Includes R code for all examples, with data and code freely available online• Offers bullet-point outlines and summaries of each chapter• Minimizes the use of jargon and requires only basic statistical background and skills

    Produktinformation

    • Utgivningsdatum:2025-06-03
    • Mått:178 x 254 x 25 mm
    • Vikt:785 g
    • Format:Häftad
    • Språk:Engelska
    • Antal sidor:456
    • Förlag:Princeton University Press
    • ISBN:9780691258775

    Utforska kategorier

    • Systemvetenskap och AI inom Data och IT
    • Matematisk statistik inom Naturvetenskap och teknik

    Mer om författaren

    Carsten F. Dormann is professor of biometry and environmental system analysis at the University of Freiburg, Germany. He is the author of the introductory textbook Environmental Data Analysis and coauthor of an open marine ecology textbook, Marine Ecology Notes. Aaron M. Ellison served for twenty years as the senior research fellow in ecology at Harvard University. He is the author of A Field Guide to the Ants of New England and Vanishing Point and coauthor of A Primer of Ecological Statistics, Scaling in Ecology with a Model System, and other books.

    Innehållsförteckning

    • PrefaceAcknowledgmentsPart I: Propositi: Why and how to simulate1. General Introduction1.1 What are simulated data?1.2 Simulated data are specific1.3 Yes, scientists really simulate data1.4 There are many good reasons to simulate data1.5 Useful background knowledge to use this book most effectively1.6 Notational conventions1.7 Structure, organisation, and flow1.8 Summary2. The basics of simulating data and the need for computational competence2.1 A road map for simulation in statistics2.2 Two simple examples2.3 More complex examples2.4 Simulating autocorrelated data2.5 Simulation versus randomisation techniques2.6 SummaryPart II: Ante mensuram: Prospective simulations of study designs and their power3. Think before you act3.1 The illusion of truth: A case study3.2 The question comes first3.3 Setting expectations, defining hypotheses3.4 Testing hypotheses and assessing their support3.5 Pre-registration3.6 Summary4. Prospective simulation of statistical power4.1 Simple group comparisons4.2 How many data points do we need for a simple correlation?4.3 Is “recruit until significant” problematic?4.4 How long does a time series have to be?4.5 Improving estimates: Is the experiment powerful enough?4.6 SummaryPart III: Post mensuram: Simulations in statistical analysis5. Assumptions: Is that one important?5.1 Linear regression requires the data to be normally distributed5.2 Regression models also assume that errors in predictor variables are negligible or unimportant5.3 The intended, rather than the realised, manipulation is an admissible predictor variable5.4 ANOVA requires homoscedasticity5.5 Multiple testing and the inflation of false positives5.6 Hyper-distributions in mixed-effect models are normal5.7 Correlations among predictors are the same outside the range of the observed data5.8 Summary6. Folklore: Is that rule-of-thumb true or useful?6.1 Model selection does not always improve interpretation6.2 Selecting one of two correlated predictors does not mitigate collinearity in regression and machine learning6.3 It is not OK to categorise continuous predictor variables6.4 Use Monte Carlo simulation when data are heteroscedastic6.5 Time series should not be detrended by default6.6 Machine learning and Big Data do not obviate rules-of-thumb6.7 Summary7. Workflows and pipelines can introduce and propagate artefacts7.1 What can we do about missing data?7.2 Types of missing data7.3 Imputation of missing predictors7.4 Estimating values for censored observations7.5 Pre-selecting predictors7.6 Regression on residuals7.7 Error propagation7.8 Workflow: Stringing multiple statistical steps into an analytical pipeline7.9 SummaryPart IV: Post exemplum: Diagnostic simulations8. Evaluating models: How well do they really fit?8.1 Learning from the prior8.2 What does a model tell us, and what does it not tell us?8.3 Visualising more complex effects: conditional, marginal, and partial plots8.4 Model diagnostics8.5 Predicting with confidence is not the same as confidence in prediction8.6 Iterative learning: New priors from old posteriors8.7 Outlook8.8 Summary9. Post hoc alternatives to retrospective power analysis9.1 Reprise: Prospective power analysis9.2 What is retrospective power analysis?9.3 Post hoc alternatives to retrospective power analysis9.4 Summary: Most retrospective analyses should be avoided9.5 Coda: What would a Bayesian do instead?Part V: In posterum: Simulations for new methods10. Combining studies: Meta-analysis and federated analysis10.1 Whence the data?10.2 From meta-analysis through federated analysis to complete analysis10.3 Meta-analysis10.4 Individual participant-level meta-analysis10.5 One-step federated analysis10.6 Multi-step federated analysis10.7 Complete data analysis10.8 Conclusions and outlook10.9 Summary11. Putting it through its paces: Does this new method work?11.1 Unit testing11.2 Dimensional analysis11.3 Comparisons11.4 Intellectual advancement11.5 Intuitive understanding11.6 Model-agnostic number of parameters: Generalised degrees of freedom11.7 Know your limits11.8 Summary12. Outroduction: How far should we push simulations?12.1 Stochastic weather forecasting12.2 Infusing fake signals to test the workflow at LIGO12.3 Virtual LIDAR scanning12.4 Advanced simulation may be neither possible nor desirableA: Useful R functions for data simulationsA.1 Drawing random values from a distributionA.2 Doing things repeatedly: for-loops and replicateA.3 Shuffling, resampling, and bootstrapping: sample()A.4 Little helpersA.5 Dedicated simulation packages