Howard Kunreuther is the James G. Dinan Professor Emeritus of Decision Sciences and Public Policy and Co-Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He is coeditor of On Risk and Disaster: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina, also available from the University of Pennsylvania Press. Robert J. Meyer is the Frederick H. Ecker/MetLife Insurance Professor of Marketing and Co-Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan is a partner at McKinsey and Company. He was formerly Executive Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

"Extraordinarily thoughtful and insightful, the authors of The Future of Risk Management provide students and professionals in the field of risk management new pathways for approaches and solutions to our myriad areas of risk. Moreover, anyone interested in understanding the risks our societies face should study these essays." (Franklin W. Nutter, President, Reinsurance Association of America) "The field of risk management has exploded in recent decades as natural disasters, financial meltdowns, pandemics, and other damaging events have wreaked havoc across borders. The Future of Risk Management brings together essays from leading thinkers on ways to reduce risk so that today's threats do not turn into tomorrow's catastrophes. Aimed at policy leaders seeking strategies to reduce future harm, this volume deserves a close read and a spot on the bookshelf of all forward-thinking decision-makers." (Alice Hill, The Hoover Institution, Stanford University) "The Future of Risk Management engages in a critical discussion on how we as a nation and the world as a whole should better prepare for and reduce the costs of future disasters. The authors correctly recognize that our current disaster preparedness and response paradigm is fundamentally broken-plagued by inconsistencies, short-sightedness, and a lack of integration. Instead, we need to take a holistic, long-term approach to disaster response and risk management and allocate resources based on the best objective data available." (Jason M. Tuber, U.S. Congressional Staffer) "This comprehensive, critical, and lucid survey demonstrates convincingly that effectively managing climate change and other major threats requires understanding how the average person reacts to risk. It's a story about lessons learned and lessons forgotten, about logic and bias, about positive incentives and perverse incentives-and serves as a warning that we have a long, long way to go before we manage risk effectively." (Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University)

• Introduction-Howard Kunreuther, Robert J. Meyer, and Erwann O. Michel-KerjanPART I. BEHAVIORAL FACTORS INFLUENCING DECISION-MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTYChapter 1. The Arithmetic of Compassion and the Future of Risk Management-Paul Slovic and Daniel VÄstfjÄllChapter 2. "Risk as Feelings" and "Perception Matters": Psychological Contributions on Risk, Risk-Taking, and Risk Management-Elke U. WeberChapter 3. Risk-Based Thinking-Baruch FischhoffChapter 4. Structured Empirical Analysis of Decisions Under Natural Hazard Risk-Craig E. Landry, Gregory Colson, and Mona AhmadianiChapter 5. Mixing Rationality and Irrationality in Insurance Demand and Supply-Mark PaulyChapter 6. The Disaster Cycle: What We Do Not Learn from Experience-Robert J. MeyerPART II. IMPROVING RISK ASSESSMENTChapter 7. Using Models to Set a Baseline and Measure Progress in Reducing Disaster Casualties-Robert Muir-WoodChapter 8. Learning from All Types of Near-Misses-Robin DillonChapter 9. Managing Systemic Industry Risk: The Need for Collective Leadership-Paul J. H. SchoemakerChapter 10. Measuring Economic Resilience: Recent Advances and Future Priorities-Adam RosePART III. DEVELOPING BETTER RISK COMMUNICATION STRATEGIESChapter 11. Improving Stakeholder Engagement for Upstream Risks-Robin Gregory and Nate DieckmannChapter 12. Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments-Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Joshua D. Baker, Jeffrey A. Friedman, and Richard ZeckhauserChapter 13. Efficient Warnings, Not "Wolf or Puppy" Warnings-Lisa A. Robinson, W. Kip Viscusi, and Richard ZeckhauserPART IV. ROLE OF RISK MITIGATION, RISK-SHARING, AND INSURANCEChapter 14. Threats to Insurability-Carolyn KouskyChapter 15. The Role of Insurance in Risk Management for Natural Disasters: Back to the Future-Howard KunreutherChapter 16. Improving Individual Flood Preparedness Through Insurance Incentives-W. J. Wouter BotzenChapter 17. Strong and Well-Enforced Building Codes as an Effective Disaster Risk Reduction Tool: An Evaluation-Jeffrey CzajkowskiPART V. GOVERNMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENTChapter 18. Getting the Blend Right: Public-Private Partnerships in Risk Management-Cary CoglianeseChapter 19. The Regulation of Insurance Markets Subject to Catastrophic Risks-Robert W. KleinChapter 20. Rethinking Government Disaster Relief in the United States: Evidence and a Way Forward-Erwann O. Michel-KerjanList of ContributorsIndex

Howard Kunreuther is the James G. Dinan Professor Emeritus of Decision Sciences and Public Policy and Co-Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He is coeditor of On Risk and Disaster: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina, also available from the University of Pennsylvania Press. Robert J. Meyer is the Frederick H. Ecker/MetLife Insurance Professor of Marketing and Co-Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan is a partner at McKinsey and Company. He was formerly Executive Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

"Extraordinarily thoughtful and insightful, the authors of The Future of Risk Management provide students and professionals in the field of risk management new pathways for approaches and solutions to our myriad areas of risk. Moreover, anyone interested in understanding the risks our societies face should study these essays." (Franklin W. Nutter, President, Reinsurance Association of America) "The field of risk management has exploded in recent decades as natural disasters, financial meltdowns, pandemics, and other damaging events have wreaked havoc across borders. The Future of Risk Management brings together essays from leading thinkers on ways to reduce risk so that today's threats do not turn into tomorrow's catastrophes. Aimed at policy leaders seeking strategies to reduce future harm, this volume deserves a close read and a spot on the bookshelf of all forward-thinking decision-makers." (Alice Hill, The Hoover Institution, Stanford University) "The Future of Risk Management engages in a critical discussion on how we as a nation and the world as a whole should better prepare for and reduce the costs of future disasters. The authors correctly recognize that our current disaster preparedness and response paradigm is fundamentally broken-plagued by inconsistencies, short-sightedness, and a lack of integration. Instead, we need to take a holistic, long-term approach to disaster response and risk management and allocate resources based on the best objective data available." (Jason M. Tuber, U.S. Congressional Staffer) "This comprehensive, critical, and lucid survey demonstrates convincingly that effectively managing climate change and other major threats requires understanding how the average person reacts to risk. It's a story about lessons learned and lessons forgotten, about logic and bias, about positive incentives and perverse incentives-and serves as a warning that we have a long, long way to go before we manage risk effectively." (Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University)

• Introduction-Howard Kunreuther, Robert J. Meyer, and Erwann O. Michel-KerjanPART I. BEHAVIORAL FACTORS INFLUENCING DECISION-MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTYChapter 1. The Arithmetic of Compassion and the Future of Risk Management-Paul Slovic and Daniel VÄstfjÄllChapter 2. "Risk as Feelings" and "Perception Matters": Psychological Contributions on Risk, Risk-Taking, and Risk Management-Elke U. WeberChapter 3. Risk-Based Thinking-Baruch FischhoffChapter 4. Structured Empirical Analysis of Decisions Under Natural Hazard Risk-Craig E. Landry, Gregory Colson, and Mona AhmadianiChapter 5. Mixing Rationality and Irrationality in Insurance Demand and Supply-Mark PaulyChapter 6. The Disaster Cycle: What We Do Not Learn from Experience-Robert J. MeyerPART II. IMPROVING RISK ASSESSMENTChapter 7. Using Models to Set a Baseline and Measure Progress in Reducing Disaster Casualties-Robert Muir-WoodChapter 8. Learning from All Types of Near-Misses-Robin DillonChapter 9. Managing Systemic Industry Risk: The Need for Collective Leadership-Paul J. H. SchoemakerChapter 10. Measuring Economic Resilience: Recent Advances and Future Priorities-Adam RosePART III. DEVELOPING BETTER RISK COMMUNICATION STRATEGIESChapter 11. Improving Stakeholder Engagement for Upstream Risks-Robin Gregory and Nate DieckmannChapter 12. Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments-Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Joshua D. Baker, Jeffrey A. Friedman, and Richard ZeckhauserChapter 13. Efficient Warnings, Not "Wolf or Puppy" Warnings-Lisa A. Robinson, W. Kip Viscusi, and Richard ZeckhauserPART IV. ROLE OF RISK MITIGATION, RISK-SHARING, AND INSURANCEChapter 14. Threats to Insurability-Carolyn KouskyChapter 15. The Role of Insurance in Risk Management for Natural Disasters: Back to the Future-Howard KunreutherChapter 16. Improving Individual Flood Preparedness Through Insurance Incentives-W. J. Wouter BotzenChapter 17. Strong and Well-Enforced Building Codes as an Effective Disaster Risk Reduction Tool: An Evaluation-Jeffrey CzajkowskiPART V. GOVERNMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENTChapter 18. Getting the Blend Right: Public-Private Partnerships in Risk Management-Cary CoglianeseChapter 19. The Regulation of Insurance Markets Subject to Catastrophic Risks-Robert W. KleinChapter 20. Rethinking Government Disaster Relief in the United States: Evidence and a Way Forward-Erwann O. Michel-KerjanList of ContributorsIndex

Howard Kunreuther is the James G. Dinan Professor Emeritus of Decision Sciences and Public Policy and Co-Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He is coeditor of On Risk and Disaster: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina, also available from the University of Pennsylvania Press. Robert J. Meyer is the Frederick H. Ecker/MetLife Insurance Professor of Marketing and Co-Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan is a partner at McKinsey and Company. He was formerly Executive Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

"Extraordinarily thoughtful and insightful, the authors of The Future of Risk Management provide students and professionals in the field of risk management new pathways for approaches and solutions to our myriad areas of risk. Moreover, anyone interested in understanding the risks our societies face should study these essays." (Franklin W. Nutter, President, Reinsurance Association of America) "The field of risk management has exploded in recent decades as natural disasters, financial meltdowns, pandemics, and other damaging events have wreaked havoc across borders. The Future of Risk Management brings together essays from leading thinkers on ways to reduce risk so that today's threats do not turn into tomorrow's catastrophes. Aimed at policy leaders seeking strategies to reduce future harm, this volume deserves a close read and a spot on the bookshelf of all forward-thinking decision-makers." (Alice Hill, The Hoover Institution, Stanford University) "The Future of Risk Management engages in a critical discussion on how we as a nation and the world as a whole should better prepare for and reduce the costs of future disasters. The authors correctly recognize that our current disaster preparedness and response paradigm is fundamentally broken-plagued by inconsistencies, short-sightedness, and a lack of integration. Instead, we need to take a holistic, long-term approach to disaster response and risk management and allocate resources based on the best objective data available." (Jason M. Tuber, U.S. Congressional Staffer) "This comprehensive, critical, and lucid survey demonstrates convincingly that effectively managing climate change and other major threats requires understanding how the average person reacts to risk. It's a story about lessons learned and lessons forgotten, about logic and bias, about positive incentives and perverse incentives-and serves as a warning that we have a long, long way to go before we manage risk effectively." (Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University)

• Introduction-Howard Kunreuther, Robert J. Meyer, and Erwann O. Michel-KerjanPART I. BEHAVIORAL FACTORS INFLUENCING DECISION-MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTYChapter 1. The Arithmetic of Compassion and the Future of Risk Management-Paul Slovic and Daniel VÄstfjÄllChapter 2. "Risk as Feelings" and "Perception Matters": Psychological Contributions on Risk, Risk-Taking, and Risk Management-Elke U. WeberChapter 3. Risk-Based Thinking-Baruch FischhoffChapter 4. Structured Empirical Analysis of Decisions Under Natural Hazard Risk-Craig E. Landry, Gregory Colson, and Mona AhmadianiChapter 5. Mixing Rationality and Irrationality in Insurance Demand and Supply-Mark PaulyChapter 6. The Disaster Cycle: What We Do Not Learn from Experience-Robert J. MeyerPART II. IMPROVING RISK ASSESSMENTChapter 7. Using Models to Set a Baseline and Measure Progress in Reducing Disaster Casualties-Robert Muir-WoodChapter 8. Learning from All Types of Near-Misses-Robin DillonChapter 9. Managing Systemic Industry Risk: The Need for Collective Leadership-Paul J. H. SchoemakerChapter 10. Measuring Economic Resilience: Recent Advances and Future Priorities-Adam RosePART III. DEVELOPING BETTER RISK COMMUNICATION STRATEGIESChapter 11. Improving Stakeholder Engagement for Upstream Risks-Robin Gregory and Nate DieckmannChapter 12. Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments-Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Joshua D. Baker, Jeffrey A. Friedman, and Richard ZeckhauserChapter 13. Efficient Warnings, Not "Wolf or Puppy" Warnings-Lisa A. Robinson, W. Kip Viscusi, and Richard ZeckhauserPART IV. ROLE OF RISK MITIGATION, RISK-SHARING, AND INSURANCEChapter 14. Threats to Insurability-Carolyn KouskyChapter 15. The Role of Insurance in Risk Management for Natural Disasters: Back to the Future-Howard KunreutherChapter 16. Improving Individual Flood Preparedness Through Insurance Incentives-W. J. Wouter BotzenChapter 17. Strong and Well-Enforced Building Codes as an Effective Disaster Risk Reduction Tool: An Evaluation-Jeffrey CzajkowskiPART V. GOVERNMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENTChapter 18. Getting the Blend Right: Public-Private Partnerships in Risk Management-Cary CoglianeseChapter 19. The Regulation of Insurance Markets Subject to Catastrophic Risks-Robert W. KleinChapter 20. Rethinking Government Disaster Relief in the United States: Evidence and a Way Forward-Erwann O. Michel-KerjanList of ContributorsIndex